Polibel - A global view of geopolitical risks

The Global Week Ahead: 17th of November 2008

2008-11-17T06:39:00.003+01:00

1) Pakistan: Friends of Pakistan Summit
What ? A summit of countries allied to Pakistan is to be held in Abu Dhabi. The summit is expected to offer economic and political support.

When? Monday the 17^th of November 2008.

Who? Ali Zardari, China, US, EU, Germany, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Britain, France, Canada, Turkey, Australia.

What to watch out for? Significant and immediate economic aid to the tune of $10bn.

Geopolitical significance? Pakistan is a nuclear power, with a homegrown Islamic insurgency, and serious political instability. With its Foreign Reserves declining fast, it is quickly heading to a balance of payment crisis. A full-blown balance of payment crisis would lead to a technical bankruptcy, which would potentially turn Pakistan into a failed state in which Islamist are the only alternative.

2) France: Opposition elects leader

What ? The socialist party (PS) of France is to elect a new leader to replace Francois Hollande, who decided to resign after 11 years. The election follows a party Congress that was held in Reims on the 14^th-15^th-16^th of November 2008. The congress was marred by acrimonious rivalries and public spats between the tenors of the party. Four factions have emerged from the congress: Bertrand Delanoe, Benoit Hamon, Segolene Royal, Martine Aubry.

When? Thursday 20^th of November.
Who? It is expected that there will be three candidates running: Benoit Hamon (could retract in favour of Aubry), Ségolène Royal, Martine Aubry.
What to watch out for: in a three-way contest Ségolène Royal is likely to win, but if Hamon retracts in favour of Martine Aubry, a very tight run-off would be on the cards.

Geopolitical significance: The leadership election of the PS will be crucial for determining the socio-political pressure that the opposition will place on Nicolas Sarkozy. The only candidate representing the center is Ségolène Royal. All others support a more radical social agenda.

3) USA: Lame-duck Congress Session

What ? Nancy Pelosi, the house leader, called for a lame duck session for this week on the 11^th of November. Lame duck sessions of the U.S. Congress happen in even numbered years when Congress has to reconvene following the November general election to take care of unfinished legislation. Some lawmakers who return for this session lost their bids for reelection and will not be in the next Congress. Hence, they are informally called "lame duck" members participating in a "lame duck" session.

When? Week of the 17^th of November 2008.
Who? Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Tom Daschle, Harry Reid, and other congressional leader.
What to watch out for: a $25bn aid package for Ford and GM. Whether Obama will participate and come to the Hill.

Geopolitical significance: failure to pass legislation in support of Ford and GM, could lead to their bankruptcy by year-end, and trigger a global equity sell-off of considerable magnitude.

5) Iraq: Security Pact needs Parliament Approval

What ? The US and the Iraqi government have come to terms on a Security Pact that would allow US forces to stay beyond the 31^st of December 2008. The cabinet voted 27 against 13 in favour of the pact. Now, parliament needs to vote on it before it can be ratified by the President.

When? Week of the 17^th of November.
Who? Iraqi Parliament, Iran, Grand Ayathollah Ali Al-Sistani.
What to watch out for: a quick approval, and the position of Muqtada al-Sadr.

Geopolitical significance: This pact will seal the mid-term presence of US troops in Iraq, and serve as a guarantee for a modicum of political stability in Iraq for the next 12 months.

6) Syria: David Milliband visits Syria

What ? David Milliband, Foreign Minister of the UK, is set to pay an official visit to Syria. This is the first UK visit since the Iraq war but it comes after a similar visit by Sakozy. The visit confirms Syria’s return to the international community. A development which will be of serious concerns for Iran.

When? Tuesday the 20^th of November 2008.
Who? David Milliband, Hafez El-Assad.
What to watch out for: a renewed Syrian pledge for ambassador exchange with Lebanon, a disavowal of Hamas, some form of closer cooperation.

Geopolitical significance: Things rarely develop in a radical fashion in Damascus. And so is its rapprochement with the international community. David Milliband’s visit is a key step in confirming Syria’s engagement. Such an engagement would de facto weaken the Syrian-Iranian alliance. Moreover, this comes at a time when Iran is experiencing serious economic woes.

7) Iran: A window of opportunity has opened for Israel

What ? It has long been argued that a window of opportunity to strike Iran would open for Israel between the US elections and Inauguration day on the 20^th of January 2009. The argument is that Israel would benefit from the incumbent’s president support without having to convince the new occupant to the White House.

When? 4^th of November 2008 – 19^th of January 2009.
Who? Iran (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Khamenei) and Israel (Ehoud Olmert, Dagan)
What to watch out for: A military operation inside Iran’s territory.

Geopolitical significance: The geopolitical domino effects are potentially powerful and will have a regional impact from Lebanon to Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

The Global Week Ahead: 10th-17th of November 2008

2008-11-10T06:33:00.002+01:00

1) USA: Barack Obama’s Cabinet
What ? Presidents-elect usually nominate key-cabinet appointment before they take office. With Rahm Emmanuel’s appointment only 2 days after the elections, Obama is signaling that his intent is to act swiftly and decisively.

When? Week of the 10^th of November 2008.

Who? Barack Obama.

What to watch out for? Appointments to watch for are: National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense (top candidate: Robert Gates), Secretary of State (top candidate: Bill Richardson), Secretary of the Treasury. Will McCain get a job as well in one of the intelligence agencies ?

Geopolitical significance? The appointments will set the tone in all policy matters, in particular economic and foreign policy.

2) Global Financial Crisis: G20 summit
What ? President Bush has called a G20 summit in Washington to discuss a global response to the financial crisis. The summit will include non-OECD countries such as China, Brazil, India, and Russia.

When? Sunday 14^th of November.
Who? Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The European Union is also a member, represented by the rotating Council presidency and the European Central Bank..
What to watch out for: Who will attend from Obama’s team ? Whether any concrete promises will be made.

Geopolitical significance: It is the first time that Emerging Market Countries are brought into the crisis room to discuss a solution. In a way, it signals a new era in the balance of power between the OECD-countries and the Emerging-countries.

3) Iran: A window of opportunity has opened for Israel

Geopolitical significance: The geopolitical domino effects are potentially powerful and will have a regional impact from Lebanon to Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Response to Josh Landis on US intervention in Abu Kamal (Syria)

2008-11-10T06:29:00.002+01:00

Josh Landis from Syria Comment, commented on the US raid in Abu Kamal in his blog (02/11/2008) . I responded with the following input:

Josh,

There are many reasons why the Syrian regime could have been complicit!
But let us start with some definitions.

Syrian regime: the very small circle around Bashar El-Assad. The comments of the Syrian embassy in Washington, although probably honest, are therefore irrelevant.
Complicit: took a deliberate decision not to derail or undermine the effectiveness of the raid. I assume here that the raid was effective.

What could be the motives for the complicity of the Syrian regime ?
1) Internal struggle within the security forces. By allowing the US to target people who could not have been active without support from the security services, the regime by default undermines the concerned security officials whose only cover was the territorial integrity of Syria.
2) The murder of Brigadier General Muhammad Suleiman, and/or that of Mugniyhe, can be seen through the same lens, notwithstanding who actually pulled the trigger/pushed the button: i.e. purging of security officials or terrorists who had become too cumbersome.

What are the indications that the Syrian Regime was complicit?
1) the speed at which Syrian media were allowed to broadcast on the event was absolutely stunning. And unprecedented, when Israel bombed the suspected nuclear site the Syrian response was quasi non-existing. When Israel targeted a tent camp within Syria several years ago, it was again Israel who broke the news. The fact that this media coverage took place in Abu Kamal several long hours away from Damascus, and a bastion of the mukhabarat reinforces the impression that the regime was ready to go LIVE.
2) The Syrian regime while intent on earning some media dividends, has conspicuously refrained from raising the stakes. Why do they not try to push for a UNSC resolution? Full knowing that it would fail, it would certainly give the regime an extra card to negotiate with the new US president. But no! Syria is not interested in that, it seems. All the regime wants, apparently, is some benevolent media attention.

In sum, Syria is as opaque as ever and the US raid has raised many unanswered questions. It is far too early to brush aside reports that Syria was complicit. There are enough indicators that it could have been the case. But one cannot be sure.

The Global Week Ahead: 30.06-06.07.08

2008-07-01T06:58:00.002+02:00

1) Turkey: The final phase of the AKP closure case
What ? The constitutional court will hear the oral arguments of the prosecutor, Yalcinkaya, and AKP, in the AKP closure case. This represents the last phase of the closure case before the court starts the deliberation process.
When? Oral arguments of the prosecutor general, Yalcinkaya, on 01.07.08. The arguments of AKP on 03.07.08.
Who? Abdurrahman Yalçınkaya (prsecutor accusing AKP) , AKP lawyers and Tayyip Erdogan, it is unlikely that Tayyip Erdogan appears in court but his statements in the run-up and aftermath are important.
What to watch out for? The oral plea is always important. It could determine the duration of the CC deliberation. If new arguments are presented, the parties will be given time to produce written proofs and counter-arguments. Alternatively, there could be a major clash with the justices, that could spill-over in the public domain under the form of a major public debate.
Geopolitical significance? Turkey’s economic convergence. The survival of a government and party that was critical in bringing Syria and Israel closer. The survival of one of the most credible Europhile government in decades.

2) Zimbabwe: Will uncle Bob be confronted
What ? Robert Mugabe was sworn in on the 29.06.08, after Friday’s presidential election run-off. The Elections have been described as not representing the will of the people by regional observers. The opposing candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, withdrew from the race after scores of killings, physical attacks, and forcible displacement struck his supporters. Zimbabwe is on the brink of complete economic (Hyperinflation, hunger, poverty, lowest life expectancy in the world) and political disaster (ruthless dictatorship). Mugabe is due to attend a conference of the African Union in Sharm el –sheikh (Egypt). Thabo Mbeki, president of South Africa has so far refrained from condemning Robert Mugabe. He is widely perceived as the only regional leader capable of coordinating an effective response to the Mugabe’s regime.
When? 01.07.08.
Who? Robert Mugabe, Thabo Mbeki.
What to watch out for: Robert Mugabe reception at the African Union summit. Will he be recognized as Zimbabwe’s leader ? What will be Thabo Mbeki’s official position vis-à-vis Zim.
Geopolitical significance: Africa is witnessing a remake of the dictatorships of the 70s in Zim. Bening complacency on behalf of African leaders would signal that democracy is not a sancrosanct concept for them. The implications for the political transition in South Africa would be, to say the least, worrying.
Interesting Comments on the topic:
Robert I. Rotberg: http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/27/opinion/edrotberg.php

3) EU: France takes the presidency
What ? France takes over the rotating 6-months presidency of the EU council.
When? 01.07.08.
Who? Nicolas Sarkozy, Manual Baroso.
What to watch out for: Sarkozy’s solution with respect to the EU constitutional treaty, and the Irish no to it. Sarkozy’s announcement on European defense. His speeches on the independence of the European Central Bank.
Geopolitical significance: Sarkozy is an energetic leader, in search of a political victory to shore up his domestic popularity. He was a key backer of the EU treaty, the agreement of which he abusively presented as a French achievement. He now has to deal with the Irish no, put some flesh on his EU defense plan, and substantiate his Mediterranean vision. Cela passera ou cela cassera !

4) Serbia: pro-EU government sworn in
What? Serbia is due to elect a pro-EU government.
When? Week of 1^st of July 2008.
Who? Mirko Cvetkovic (DS), prime minister nominee.
What to watch out for? The declaration of the government on the EU association agreement and Kosovo. Collaboration with the The Hague tribunal, and the arrest of Karadzic.
Geopolitical significance: The Association agreement is likely to be promptly ratified in parliament. EU convergence path will find a renewed impetus.

Linking the dots

· Wall street shares slide almost to March lows (FT, 28.06), http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3942168-4448-11dd-b151-0000779fd2ac.html

· 80% of Americans hold negative views about the economy (Gallup, 29.06), http://www.gallup.com/poll/107827/Gallup-Daily-Americans-Current-Views-Economy.aspx

· As of June 28, 52% of Americans report receiving an economic stimulus payment from the U.S. government. (Gallup, 29.06). http://www.gallup.com/poll/107212/Gallup-Daily-Tax-Rebate-Tracker.aspx

· More Americans think it is important to fix the economy than to fight terrorism (Gallup, 27.06.08). This is especially clear among democrats and independents, Republicans see the opposite. That might be why only 30% of Americans identify themselves with republicans. http://www.gallup.com/poll/108415/Americans-Prioritize-Economy-Over-Terrorism.aspx

Blog tip

A pearl of a blog on Syria and Lebanon. Joshua Landis blog, Syria Comment, screens all domestic and Syria-related regional developments, comments on them, and weblinks them to third-party commentators.

The Global Week Ahead: 05.05.2008 - 12.05.2008

2008-05-06T07:38:00.001+02:00

1) China-Japan: President Hu Jintao visists Japan
What ? Chinese state visits to Japan have always had a historic character. Notwithstanding the differences in size of the countries, it can be compared to German-French state visits. It is about two fierce enemies seeing eye to eye again. It is Hu Jintao’s first foreign visit since the start of Tibetan protests.
When? Tuesday 6^th of May 2008.
Who? Hu Jintao meets Yassuo Fukuda.
What to watch out for ? North Korea will be on the Agenda, Tibetan monks demonstration, comments on the territorial over the East China Sea gas field.
Geopolitical significance? Beijing wants to stabilize its foreign policy ahead of the Olympic games. Japan has different priorities, however, including North Korea, protection and expansion of its business interests in China, and a permanent seat at the UN.

2) Russia: Twin-headed state
What ? Medvedev is sworn in. He is the first Russian Head of State since the Soviet Union’s collapse that is not from the Communist Party, nor from the security services is sworn in
When? Wednesday 7^th of May 2008.
Who? Dimitri Medvedev, Vladimir Putin.
What to watch out for: When presidents change in Russia they usually like to take their country to war to establish their nationalist credentials. Yeltsin did it before and after his re-election. Putin did it after his elections. What about Medvedev? A war could easily be started in Georgia.
On the other hand, Medvedev represents fresh liberal blood. The tone in foreign affairs could change dramatically…for the best.
Geopolitical significance: EU gas supplies, Caucasus stability, Turkey’s stability.

3) Israel 60^th Anniversary
What ? Israel will celebrate its 60^th Birthday. For most Arab countries this will be a painful day. For the likes of Hezbollah, Iran, Al Qaeda, and Hamas, it will be unbearable to look at Israel celebrate its existence. By the same token, it will be very tempting to strike the Jewish state.
When? Hebrew Calendar, 8th of May 2008, Roman Calendar 14^th of May 2008
Who? Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, Hamas, Al Qaeda.
What to watch out for: Big headline attacks that could lead to a Middle East war, the presence or the absence of the strategic allies during the celebrations. President G.W. Bush has announced himself, but a last minute cancellation is not excluded.
Geopolitical significance: Oil prices would go through the roof. Lebanon could disintegrate into civil war. The Assad regime could be wiped away. Iran could be attacked.

4) Serbia at a crossroad
What? Serbia holds parliamentary and local elections.
When? Sunday the 11th of May 2008.
Who? DSS (Kostunica), DS (Tadic, president), Nikolic (Radicals)
What to watch out for? Any signals from the Commission on Slovakia joining the Eurozone.
Geopolitical significance: Slovakia is now first in line to join the Euro. The country has met all the eurozone criteria. A decision to delay Slovakia’s entry would therefore be entirely political and thus damaging for the efforts of other newly joined member states. A spat on slovakia would deepen the New vs Old Europe divide.

5) Eurozone: l’auto-critique
What? The EC will present an overview of the eurozone as it approaches its tenth anniversary. The report coincides with the commission’s public assessment of the euro candidates..
When? Week of the 5th of May 2008.
Who? European Commission, Belgian Prosecutor general.
What to watch out for? Any signs that Slovakia will join the Eurozone.
Geopolitical significance: Slovakia is now first in line to join the Euro. The country has met all the eurozone criteria. A decision to delay Slovakia’s entry would therefore be entirely political and thus damaging for the efforts of other newly joined member states.

The Global Week Ahead: 28 April- 2 May 2008

2008-04-30T07:53:00.001+02:00

1) EU-Russia Partnership: When the political mosquitoes league matters

What ? EU and Russia hold talks on a strategic partnership.
When? Tuesday 29^th of April 2008.
Who? Russia, EU Commission.
What to watch out for ? Lithuania has announced that they will veto any deals with Russia in protest to Russia’s bullying tactics against Lithuania and Georgia.
Geopolitical significance: As Medvedev is about to being sworn, liberal Russia needs a concession from the West that can silence the siloviki in the Kremlin.

2) Turkey: AKP submits written defense in closure case, or maybe not!

What? AKP has to submit its defence case to the constitutional court in written. It can, however, request a three month extension.
When? Friday 2^nd of May 2008.
Who? AKP, Tayip Erdogan.
What to watch out for? Will AKP submit an extension request, or send the signal that it is ready to face the court? The court will almost certainly accept a timeline extension request if a demand comes in.
Geopolitical significance: Turkey is hugely important for the Emerging Market sentiment in the financial world.

3) Olympic torch arrives in China
What? The Olympic torch has finally arrived in China. Chinese authorities can now be relieved, they control everything. On the other side media scrutiny is set to increase, and the flame is approaching Tibet.
When? Sunday 4^th of April 2008.
Who? Chinese government.
What to watch out for ? Any signs of disturbances in Tibet.
Geopolitical significance: Human rights hick-ups could lead to China bashing, which would in turn lead reactionary nationalism in Chin, which could then harm global trade.

4) Middle East: week before the storm
What ? Next week Israel will celebrate its 60^th Birthday. For most arab countries this will be a painful day. For the likes of Hezbollah, Iran, Al Qaeda, and Hamas, it will be unbearable to look at Israel celebrate.
When? All the days leading to the 14^th of May 2008
Who? Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, Hamas, Al Qaeda.
What to watch out for: Big headline attacks that could lead to a Middle East war.
Geopolitical significance: Oil prices would go through the roof. Lebanon could disintegrate into civil war. The Assad regime could be wiped away. Iran could be attacked.

5) Russia: the first President that is not from the Communist Party, nor from the security services is sworn in
What ? Medvedev is sworn in.
When? Wednesday 7^th of May 2008.
Who? Dimitri Medvedev, Putin
What to watch out for: When presidents change in Russia they usually like to take their country to war to establish their nationalist credentials. Yeltsin did it after his re-election. Putin did it after his elections. And what will Medvedev do. A war could easily be started in Georgia.
On the other hand, Medvedev represents fresh liberal blood. The tone in foreign affairs could change dramatically…for the best.
Geopolitical significance: EU gas supplies, Caucasus stability, Turkey’s stability.

The Global Week Ahead: 21-27.04.2004

2008-04-23T07:17:00.007+02:00

1) Iraq: Neighbours conference
What ? Kuwait is holding an Iraq's neighbour's conference.
When? Tuesday, 21.04.2008, Kuwait City.
Who? Nuri al-Maliki, Iraq's foreign Minister.
What to watch out for ? Signs that the Gulf states will write off the Iraqi debt from Saddam's time. Signal's that GCC will open embassies in Bagdad. So far GCC officials have not even travelled on state visits to Iraq, bar from the Kurdish region.
Geopolitical significance: Sunni engagement in the stabilisation of Iraq.

2) Iraq: Sadr , fight or not fight!
What ? Sadr warned the government over the weekend to stop aggressions of his militias else.....
When? Week of 21.04.2008, Bagdad.
Who? Mr Muqtadda Al-sadr and his mehdi army.
What to watch out for ? If Muqtadda Al-sadr and his mehdi army decide to take on the Iraqi government and the US army openly, hell will break over Iraq.
Geopolitical significance: Iran-US relations, US presidential elections. Recent analyses have suggested to ways of analysing the situation. One, articulated by French historian Mr. Adler, is that Sadrists are supported by the Ahmadinejad clan in Iran, while Maliki is supported by the pragmatists. An alternative view implied by is that Iran supports all shiite clans and is quite happy at seeing them tearing each other apart from now. This would look more like Syria's role in Lebanon.

3) US: Pennsylvania Primaries.
What ? Pennsylvania Primaries, Clinton must win by 10% or over to win the expectations games. Although in terms of delegates count Pennsylvania is unlikely to change much to the status quo.
When? Tuesday, 21.04.2008, USA.
Who? Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama.
What to watch out for: Clinton must win by 10% or over to win the expectations games. A clinton victory will put pressure on Obama to win in Indiana.
Geopolitical significance: The Foreign Policy style of each of them is significantly different.

4) Georgia: When will the tensions subside ?
What ? Last week Russia announced that it would establish formal links with Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhasia and South Ossetia. It amounts to a de facto recognition, and comes after a long period of Russification of the breakaway provinces.
When? Week of 21.04.2008.
Who? Mikheil Saakashvili, Valdimir Putin.
What to watch out for: Tensions could escalate in the coming weeks as Putin is likely to want to send a message to his hardliners that he is not letting them down, while at the same time give an implicit warning to Ukraine of what could happen if they were to act in a way that is perceived as hostile.
Geopolitical significance: Kosovo, lowers the temperature of an other European frozen conflict, NATO expansions could be at risk or boosted depending on how one looks at it.

5) Zimbabwe: Anything can happen!
What ? Refusing apparent defeat, President Mugabe has ordered a recount of votes, while cracking down on dissent. Suffering from hyperinflation the country is collapsing.
When? from now until Mugabe leaves power.
Who? President Mugabe (ZANU-PF), Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai (MDC).
What to watch out for: Humanitarian Disaster.
Geopolitical significance: The moral credibility of the African liberation movements such as Zanu PF and, most crucially, ANC is at stake. A failure would turn the clock backwards on the African continent and signal that the despotic regimes are to be tolerated again.

The Global Week Ahead: 14.04-21.04.2008

2008-04-15T00:14:00.002+02:00

1) Ireland Referendum: Merkel campaigns in Ireland
What ? Angela Merkel campaigns for the Referendum on the European reform treaty in Ireland. The poll is to be held on the 12.06.2008.
When? Monday, 14.04.2008, Dublin.
Who? Angela Merkel (German Chancellor), and Bertie Ahern will host her (although he is stepping down).
What to watch out for ? History, it is the first time a foreign leader is campaigning for a EU referendum of such symbolic importance, since the Maastricht Treaty.
Geopolitical significance: EU-focused

2) Italy 2 different dimensions: Berlusconi vs Veltroni, status quo vs stability!
What ? Parliamentary (630 seats, party lists+ proportional), Senate (315 seats, party-lists +proportional), and local elections.
When? Elections were on 13-14.04.2008, results due on 14.04.2008, 15:00.
Who? Mr Berlusconi: People Freedom Party, Mr. Veltroni: New Democrats
What to watch out for ? Any clear majority both in the Parliament as in the Senate. Anything short of that will be a harbinger of political instability and cast doom on Italy’s enormous economic problems. Why not a victory of Veltroni. The latter would be a sign the Italian voters are hungry for stability and respectability vs. show and poor track-record.
Geopolitical significance: EU eco stability, maturing of the “sick man of Europe”

3) Middle East Talks
What ? The Quartet meets in Amman, Jordan.
When? Thursday 17^th of April 2008, Amman.
Who? Level of meeting is not clear yet. Lookout of ministerial tours.
What to watch out for: Level of delegations, position towards Hamas.
Geopolitical significance: Important follow-up to Indianapolis.

4) Jimmy Carter meets Hamas leader in Damascus
What ? Ex President Jimmy Carter is expected to meet Khaled Meshaal in Damascus.
When? Friday 18^th of April 2008, Damascus.
Who? Jimmy Carter, Khaled Meshaal, Bashar El-Assad..
What to watch out for: Will the meeting go ahead ? What will be the US candidates’ position towards the visit ? Will foreign leaders use the visit as an ice-breaker opening the way to discussion with Hamas ?
Geopolitical significance: Important for the Middle East process..

5) Papal visit to the US
What ? Pope Benedict visits the US for the first time since he became Pope
When? Week of 14 ^th –21^st of April 2008, USA.
Who? Pope Benedict XVI, George Bush.
What to watch out for: The pope has turned increasingly open to inter-religious dialogue. King Abdullah visited him several months ago, and they both got on very well together. Saudi Arabia has since then signaled willingness to sponsor inter-religious dialogue and narrow the mentality gap. The pope is likely to speak about it when he meets Bush and the Jewish lobby. Benedict XVI might venture on a political comment towards Palestine.
Geopolitical significance: minor.

Letter to Barack Obama: 09.03.2008

2008-03-09T11:44:00.004+01:00

Dear Barack,

The time is ripe for a few changes to your campaign strategy. If you are out of ideas here is what I recommend you do ASAP.

#1. CHANGE, stick to the message but explain why “your opponent is more of the same”. Change is the key topic of your campaign and ultimately that is the reason you can win. In theory this campaign theme is fundamentally rock-solid. Over 70% of Americans disapprove of the way their country is heading. That suggests they want change. Nevertheless, it is now time for you to shift away from your “cynics cum Washington politics” line, which has yielded what it could already, and adopt a more specific rhetoric of why your opponent is more of the same. E.g.: remind them that the IT bubble grew under B. Clinton, that Bill Clinton was the embodiment of hypocrisy in the White House. A notch more aggressive, run an add with original footages of Bill and Hillary in the White House and ask the American people if they deserve another run of the same, Hillary’s ultimate weak spot is the “dynasty thing”; exploit it. By the same token, do not hesitate to link the Clinton dynasty with the Bush dynasty and invite the voters to think about the consequences. Finally, if all of it fails, you can always make the argument that the Clinton administration has failed to see the national security threats early enough (which is true, after all 9/11 barely came 9 months into Bush’s presidency the security issues pre-dated his arrival).

#2. The ECONOMY, link it to the change message in more details: let us face it, the US economy is in disarray. You can point at the unemployment, the house prices, the infrastructure, the addiction to energy imports, the inflation, and the recession. You should not find it all too difficult to tell the voters what you plan to do about it and why your opponents are partially responsible for the historic crisis of the US economy. Hillary Clinton voted for the war, and by implication for its costs. Bill has failed to grasp the full consequences of the free trade agreements he passed, which have in due time exacerbated the US current account balance.

#3. NATIONAL SECURITY and FOREIGN AFFAIRS EXPERIENCE, make a trip around the world after Mississippi. On national security, pundits are fast to note that you have no experience and that you might therefore not be the best candidate. The problem here is that they have a point. You will always be something of an unknown quantity, but so are your opponents, though to a lesser extent. But you can demonstrate your argument of “experience is nothing without judgment” by going on a world tour. TAKE YOUR PLANE AND GO TO EUROPE, IRAK, AFGHANISTAN, and as many American military bases as you can during a tour around the world. You will have 5 weeks after Mississippi, use them to go abroad and look and act super presidential. Meet Manuel Barroso in Brussels, Angela Merkel in Germany, Abdullah Gul in Turkey. Stop-over in Bagdad, and then go to Amman, Nairobi (shake hands with Kibaki and Odinga, talk peace and reconciliation), and Kabul, continue to Beijing and get Hu Jintao to tour you around the Olympic city (tell him how nice it is, but how important it is to re-balance the economic relationship between both countries), continue to Indonesia and the Philippines were you can talk tough about Islamic fundamentalists and the fight on terror. Make sure that all the media and appearance details are right, make sure that you get some photo-opps with David Petraeus and the “boys”, make sure you look super-capable of handling national security issues. Nurture allies, and chastise enemies. Talk tough on Iran, sweet on Israel, but do it using reasonable non-dogmatic arguments. Show how different you are by shaping the debate outside the manicheist frame of Bush. Back to the US. Give Hillary a beating: ask her where is her record on Rwanda, Somalia, and Al Qaeda.

#4. Live the change: you have promised change, time has come to demonstrate you can do it. Engineer situations where you can demonstrate how it will be like when you will be president (the foreign trip is one, go to disaster/accident scenes, maybe a special add, etc…). Just make sure that your actions do never deviate from your message of change.

Give me a call if you want to discuss

polibel

The Global Week Ahead: 10.03.2008

2008-03-09T09:50:00.006+01:00

1) Hungary: The fall-out from the referendum could be turbulent
What ? Referendum on 3 aspects of the fiscal austerity plan of the government took place on 09.03. The referendum was forced onto the government by the opposition in a bid to oust the Prime Minisiter from office. The days until the national day, on the 15.03, and maybe beyond are likely to turn violent as the opposition celebrates its victory, and unleashes its radical elements on the streets of Budapest.
When? Monday, 10 March to Saturday 15 March 2008, Budapest.
Who? MSZP - Ferenc Gyurczanny (Socialist PM), Fidesz - Viktor Orban (right cum extreme-right opposition leader).
What to watch out for ? 1) turnout. if above 30% the likelihood of the referendum being binding will increase significantly, 2) Anything less than a binding referendum victory for the opposition on all three questions will be perceived as a defeat by Fidesz. 3) A defeat with more than 60% participation would be very damaging to the PM.4) Noise from the MSZP party following the results announcement. Although unlikely, an internal party coup on PM Gyurczanny remains a remote possibility.
Geopolitical significance: Not much geopolitically. But a very negative referendum for the government, coupled with protests on the street will send the HUF to hell. the currency could weaken dramatically this week.
Developing story, links: financial markets

2) Urkaine: EU-Ukraine troika, will the enhanced FTA fly?
What ? Ukraine's Prime Minister will be in Brussel to attend the regular EU-Ukraine Troika. This comes at time of relative political stability in Ukraine, and barely 2 months after Ukraine's WTO membership announcement.
When? Tuesday 11.03.2008.
Who? Yulia Timoshenko (PM of Ukraine), Manuel Barroso (EU commission), Slovenian Prime Minister, and French representative.
What to watch out for? 1) Any announcement on the enhanced FTA, 2) Hints of a timeline for the WTO ratification process, 3) EU and Ukrainian position on Rosukrenergo and the gas transit regime to the EU.
Geopolitical Significance: Political relations with Ukraine are always touchy because of Russia. But when the EU starts talking about "enhanced FTA", while Russia is still nowhere on its desire to sign a strategic partnership agreement with the EU could lead to frictions between Moscow and the EU, as well as between Moscow and Kiev.
Developing story, links: Kosovo recognition on behalf of Ukraine, NATO M.A.P.,

3) US: Mississippi Democratic Primaries!
What ? 33 Democratic delegates are at stake in the state of Mississippi. Barack Obama stands a strong chance to win in Mississipi, where ca 30% of the population is black. A strong victory in Mississipi would be essential for Obama psychological and arithmetic momentum. At present he leads in the delegate count by 123 delegates (Real Clear Politics), but has suffered defeats in Texas and Ohio, two big states, on the 04.03 .
When? Week of the 18.02.2008
Who? Students in Turkish Universities
What to watch out for? 1) Campus protests against or for the headscarf ban, 2) Any evidence that .
Geopolitical significance? none others that it could trigger a market sell-off as foreign investors have sofar resisted from scaring from Turkey amid gloomy global sentiments.
Developing story, links:

4) Serbia: Early elections are confirmed !
What ? On Saturday 08.03.2008 Prime Minister Kostunica (DSS), announced the dissolution of the government over its inability to agree on the parliamentary resolution of the Radical Party (SRS) on Kosovo. Early elections have been announced for the 11.05.2008.
When? Week of the 10.03.2008
Who? Boris Tadic (President, DS), Kostunica (DSS), Timoslav Nikolic (SRS).
What to watch out for? 1) Public Opinion Polls, 2) Political rallies that turn violent.
Geopolitical significance? Critical. Kostunica is likely to chart a pro-Russian path to his electorate. Tadic will propose a pro-EU path. The catastrophy scenario would be a victory of SRS.
Developing story, links: Kosovo, NATO accession of Macedonia and Albania.

5) Europe: Fourth anniversary of the Madrid bombing
What ? on 11.03.2004 a series of coordinated Al Qaeda bombs on Madrid's trains killed 191 people and left over 1500 people injured. Al Qaeda has a demonstrated tendency to perpetrate new attacks on anniversaries of older ones.
When? 11.03.2008
Who? Al Qaeda.
What to watch out for? 1) Any attack on US interests could influence the presidential election campaign, 2) an attack on Dutch interests in retaliation for Geert Wilders announced Fitna movie.
Geopolitical significance? It could disqualify Turkey's EU accession prospects for a while, it would excerbate intercultural tensions in many european cities, it could affect the US presidential elections.

5) Iran: Parliamentary elections
What ? Two groups are locked in a fierce political battle. On one hand are the conservatives supported by some reformists (Rafsanjani, Khatami). On the other hand are the radicals with strong links to the Revolutionary guards (Ahmadinejad). The elections comes against a background of rampant inflation, shortages, and heavy handed politics from the presidential party. A clean defeat of the presidential party has been precluded by the government's intervention in the opposition candidates vetting process.
When? 14.03.2008
Who? .
What to watch out for? 1) a defeat by the presidential party, 2) anti-Ahmadinejad comments from Khamenei 3) Massive demonstrations in Iran.
Geopolitical significance? It is a questions of signals to the West. Bearing in mind that the West is intently concerned about Iran's nuclear stance, as well as its increasingly belligerent rethoric. A victory of Ahmadinejad's party, without any condmenation or criticism from Khamenei would amount to implicit support of Ahmadinejad current policies. The West would then conclude that they stand on their own to stop a nuclear, anti-semite Iran with all the dire consequences that such reasoning would imply. If on the opposite, Ahmadinejad is dealt a relative defeat and Kahmenei distances himself from him, the signal would be that things are changing in Iran. The West would then conclude that time is on their side.
Developing story, links: Lebanon, Persian Gulf, Iraq, Israel

The Global Week Ahead: 18.02.2008

2008-02-17T21:49:00.005+01:00

1) Pakistan: Can the elections be free and fair?
What ? 80 mln. Pakistanis will elect 342 parliamentarian to the national assembly.
When? Monday, 18 February 2008, Pakistan.
Who? PPP (Asif Zadari), PML-Q (Nawaz Sharif), PML-M (Musharraf).
What to watch out for ? 1) any signs of elections rigging, 2) the results of the PPP in Punjab and Sindh, 3) PML-M capacity to remain in power.
Geopolitical significance: Both the PPP and the PML-Q have announced that they would impeach Musharraf once in control of the national assembly. Stability in the nuclear-armed state will depend on whether the electorate perceives the elections as rigged, and on the personality and program of the next Prime Minister (i.e. majority leader).
Any serious mass protests or assassination campaign could trigger a chain reaction that would fuel ethnic violence along tribal and religious lines throughout Pakistan. At this stage only the army could restore order.
Developing story, links:

2) Kosovo: What will happen to Mitrovica, and to Serbia's EU convergence process?
What ? Kosovo has declared independence. The Serbian enclave of Mitrovica has now a one-off opportunity to accept its faith, fight, or break away from Kosovo. In Belgrade politicians will find themselves in the uncomfortable situation of having to posture proudly in defence of Serbia without rupturing vital relations with the EU.
When? Week of the 18.02.2008
Who? Boris Tadic, Kostunica, Serbs of Kosovo
What to watch out for? 1) Ethnic violence in Kosovo, 2) Street protests in Belgrade, 3) Any inflammatory speeches from Serbian Nationalists.
Geopolitical significance? Kosovo's declaration of Independence comes two weeks after a narrow electoral run-off in serbia's presidential elections, which has effectively squeezed out the party of the somewhat Eurosceptic Prime Minister. While the President and the Prime Minister are now showing a united front against Kosovo's independence, divisions are likely to emerge once Serbians will have come to term with the reality, and a policy vision will be required.
Russia's role as Serbia's main ally is fraught with negative consequences for countries such as Georgia and Transdniestria.
If ethnic violence erupts on the ground in Kosovo the odds of a domino effect across the region will increase significantly. Hungarians in the Vojvodina, Serbs in Respublika Serbska, are likely to be the first to fall victims from any Kosovo violence. The last thing anybody wants are images of fleeing serbs.
The recognition game will also produce interesting geopolitics. Who will be first to recognise Albania ? Will Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan be among the first ones ?
Developing story, links:

3) Turkey: Turkish University reopen for the second semester...without headscarfs!
What ? The Turkish Parliament has passed a constitutional amendment allowing students to wear a headscarf at University. The amendment will become law once President Gul has signed it.
When? Week of the 18.02.2008
Who? Students in Turkish Universities
What to watch out for? 1) Campus protests against or for the headscarf ban, 2) Any evidence that .
Geopolitical significance? none others that it could trigger a market sell-off as foreign investors have sofar resisted from scaring from Turkey amid gloomy global sentiments.
Developing story, links:

4) Lebanon: On the brink of civil war !
What ? politically tainted street fights have been on the increase over the last 10 days, while senior politicians fail to react and reign over their rank and files the risks are high that the situation could slip out of control. The main underlying issue has been the inability of the Lebanese parliament to elect a new president. The Presidency having been kept vacant for three months.
When? Week of the 18.02.2008
Who? clashing mobs of Shiite and Sunni youth.
What to watch out for? 1) increase in mobs fight, 2) fiery speeches of political elders.
Geopolitical significance? A serious Sunni-Shiite clash would have dangerous repercussions across the region. Especially in Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Developing story, links:

5) Cyprus: reunification is in the bag !
What ? The first round of the presidential elections has edged-out the incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos. Mr Papadopoulos is infamous for his political u-turn vis a vis the Annan Plan's for the island's reunification. The alternative candidates, Mr Kasoulides and Mr Christofias (Communist) have both campaigned on a platform that was favourable to reunification. The second round of the Presidential elections will take place on Sunday.
When? 24.02.2008
Who? Mr kasoulides, Christofias, Erdogan.
What to watch out for? 1) Any campaign pledge with regards to independence, 2) Turkish reactions to the defeat of the jurassic president of Greek Cyprus.
Geopolitical significance? serious progress on the island reunification front would bolster Turkey's accession progress, allow Turkey to recognise Cypriot boats entering Turkish ports and therefore unblock the Chapter's negotiations. Furthermore, Cyprus' reunification would once and for all break the back of the Turkish army extralegal power channels, whose reliance on the informal Island's economy and mafia is notorious. In Cyprus there is one Turkish soldier for every fourth Turkish Cypriot inhabitant.

The Global Week Ahead: 04.02.2008

2008-02-03T23:28:00.000+01:00

1) Serbia-Balkans: Tadic, Presivent = Kosovo Independent on the 7th of February ?
What ? At the time of writing Boris Tadic (DS) seemed to have narrowly won the presidential elections with 50,9 %. Will Nikolic stick to his words and respect the democratic results as he seemed to do when he conceded defeat? What will Kostunica's official statement be (he refused to endorse Tadic although he is in coalition with him) ? With 50% of Serbia split on Kosovo what will the EU now do ? Will they sign the promised deal on the 4th of February ? Will Kosovo declare its independence on the 7th as was rumored by European diplomats last week? And how will the serbian markets react to Tadic's narrow victory ?
When? Monday, 04 February 2008, Belgrade: Official results and EU deal. 07 February: Kosovo.
Who? Boris Tadic, Kostunica, Temislav Nikolic.
What to watch out for ? Any contest of the election results? Kostunica's comment on Tadic' victory ? Serbian market reaction ? The EU signature of the Serbian trade and visa deal ? Kosovo's declaration of independence?
Geopolitical significance: The EU's candidate, won the Serbian presidential elections though with a very narrow margin. The country is split in two on the main issue: A europhile serbia with a moderate president on Kosovo, or a staunchly nationalist serbia with a rethorically aggressive president on Kosovo! The EU is in fact in a difficult position: its main ally is publicly arguing against Kosovo's independence and demanding for a UN solution (which is unobtainable). An aggressive EU move in favor of Kosovo's independence would be a slap in the face of their ally. Prolonged procrastinations would however irritate the Kosovars to dangerous levels. Their choice will be stability vs. fidelity! The EU is likely to compromise . ..that is were the deal and the visa regime is so important.

2) US: Supertuesday

What ? GOP has 1081 delegates up for grab in often winner-gets-all elections. McKain or Romney is likely to reach the 1000 delegates needed to win the GOP nomination. Democrats, however, will compete for 2075 delegates, distributed proportionately for the most. Obama will show whether his high-profile endorsment have converted into votes. Clinton represent the democrat establishment, for Obama to still be competitive on Wednesday he needs a victory or a very close defeat in California (441 delegates/370 proportionate), a victory in Illinois (185/153), a decent show in New York (281/151). Democrats need 2025 delegates to win the nomination. Neither Hillary C. nor Barack O. are expected to reach the victory treshold.

When? Tuesday the 5th of February 2008, USA, 20 States.
Who? Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McKain, Mitt Romney.
What to watch out for? On the GOP side: Who is the nominee. Among the democrats: Has Barack survived, or even taken the lead over Hillary, which would be a turning point. Hillary's inevitability would have been fatally dented.
Geopolitical significance: McKain is a hard power grandpa, with a likeable smile and the wisdom of his age 71. Romney is somewhat of an unknown quantity geopolitically. Clinton: is a realpolitician from Washington's establishment and with some principles. Obama is a principled non-establishment actor, capable of realpolitik and with a powerful brain.

3) Kenya: on Watch, we might not have seen the worst of the crisis!
What ? The first round of the UN mediation seems to have ended with symbolic results: calls to the end of violence and an agreement to agree on the need for negotiations and aid relief for the displaced .
When? Week of 4^th of February 2008, Nairobi.
Who? Mr Kofi Annan, Mr Odinga, Mr. Kibaki
What to watch out for ? Two consecutive days without violence or deaths.
Geopolitical significance: Kenya used to be a showcase of African modernity, just after South Africa. The current crisis will test investors’ confidence in African markets. It will also test the ability of the African Union to sort out its own problems, something that has been put in doubt by manner in which they have handled the blatant crisis in Zimbabwe.

4) Poland: Tusk meets Putin. What will Putin have to say about the missile defence shield ?
What ? Tusk travels on a state visit to Russia.
When? Sunday the 10th of February 2008, Moscow.
Who? Donald Tusk (50) and Vladimir Putin (55).
What to watch out for? Will Putin bark at the West or instead strike conciliatory tone ? Will Russia receive Poland's endorsement for a strategic partnership with the EU ? Beef and gas will be on the table.
Geopolitical significance: Sikorski latest announcement that the US and Poland had struck a deal on the US missile defence shield. It could be the beginning of a long and steady deterioration of Russia-US relations. Or the end of a bluffing exercise , whereby Russia attempted to dissuade a US military move in Eastern Europe through aggresive rethoric , but without real intention to go any further than rethoric. The usual russian game.

5) Turkey: Erdogan meets Merkel
What ? Erdogan travels to Germany on a state visit.
When? Thursday the 7th of February 2008 (until the 9th), Germany.
Who? Tayipp Erdogan (53) and Angela Merkel (54).
What to watch out for? Any signs that the EU is ready to open new negotiations Chapters ! Any comments that Erdogan is about to stabilise the Kurdish problem in Turkey and Iraq. Announcements of an amnesty law for PKK fighters, would be a positive sign. Announcement of imminent talks with the KRG and moderate comments about the Kirkuk referendum would also be very positive. Announcements on the Nabucco pipeline or Cyprus could make a surprise.
Geopolitical significance: The EU and Turkey have entered an akward period of distant proximity. Nevertheless, pragmatism dictates rapprochement on issues such as : gas dependency on Russia, the Iranian nuclear file, Iraq, Lebanon, islam vs. modernity,....

The Global Week Ahead: 28.01.2008

2008-01-28T22:43:00.000+01:00

1) Serbia-Balkans: What will the EU do to lure Serbian voters away from the nationalist presidential candidate ?
What ? The EU council of FM meets in Brussels, SAA and visa free travel for Serbia are on the agenda.
When? Monday, 28 January 2008, Brussels
Who? Council of FM, with particular attention to Belgium and the Netherlands.
What to watch out for ? SAA, visa free travel or both. How will Kostunica react ? Will it boost President Tadic election chances?
Geopolitical significance: The second tour of the Presidential elections takes place on Sunday. The incumbent, a pro Euro moderate, competes against Nikolic, a nationalist ex-Minister of Milosevic from the Radical party. Although ceremonial the presidency has some influence on the foreign affairs agenda, which will put the EU-negotiations on hold and therefore affect the economy.

2) Kenya: Kofi Annan’s last chance before the country slips into turmoil !
What ? Koffi Annan is engaged in a round of mediation between President Kibaki and opposition leader Odinga. Both men have claimed victory in the December 2007 Presidential elections. The elections were heavily rigged, Mr Kibaki was officially declared winner after long counting delays. Violence then erupted across the country.
When? Week of 28^th of January 2008, Nairobi.
Who? Mr Kofi Annan, Mr Odinga, Mr. Kibaki
What to watch out for ? A second handshake between Mr Kibaki and Odinga. The beginning of the negotiations for a constitutional amendment or the re-run of the elections (both are demands of the opposition).
Geopolitical significance: Kenya used to be a showcase of African modernity, just after South Africa. The current crisis will test investors’ confidence in African markets. It will also test the ability of the African Union to sort out its own problems, something that has been put in doubt by manner in which they have handled the blatant crisis in Zimbabwe.

3) US: State of the Union Speech ?
What ? In his final state of the Union Speech, President Bush will lay out the plan for 2008.
When? Monday the 28th of January 2008, Washington.
Who? George W. Bush.
What to watch out for? All references to Foreign Policy. In particular: Middle East Peace Process, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Pakistan.
Geopolitical significance: To a large extent Lebanon is an accurate barometer of the region. So far regional players, including the US, have managed a difficult status-quo cohabitation on all key-issues: Irak, Palestine, Iranian Nuclear program. As a result Lebanon has been able to maintain a status quo internally, although at the costs of the presidential elections. The latest violence is a signal that protagonists want to raise the stakes. Two risks stand out: that the muscle flexing runs out of control of the regional players, that regional players decide to raise the stakes even further ahead of the US elections.

4) Lebanon: Who is the next target ?
What ? The last two weeks have witnessed the explosion of one bomb per week. The targeting has reached a new paradigm with a US embassy car and an anti-terrorist expert. The perpetrators seem to be targeting the last bulwark of Lebanon’s stability: the security services and the international supporters.
When? Week of 28^th of January 2008, Beirut.
Who? Bashar El-Assad, Hosni Mubarak, General Sleiman, Ali Khomenei.
What to watch out for? Any new outbreak of violence.
Geopolitical significance: To a large extent Lebanon is an accurate barometer of the region. So far regional players, including the US, have managed a difficult status-quo cohabitation on all key-issues: Irak, Palestine, Iranian Nuclear program. As a result Lebanon has been able to maintain a status quo internally, although at the costs of the presidential elections. The latest violence is a signal that protagonists want to raise the stakes. Two risks stand out: 1) that regional players loose control of their Lebanese proxies, 2) that regional players decide to raise the stakes even further ahead of the US elections.

Lettre ouverte aux dirigeants des partis wallons, 13.01.2008,

2008-01-15T23:01:00.001+01:00

Chers Mesdames et Messieurs, les dirigeant des partis wallons,

Alors que la presse belge fait état de vos conciliabules en vue de “La réunion de mardi”, alors que l’économie européenne est sur le point de ralentir entraînant avec elle la Belgique, alors que de plus en plus de Wallons à force de vous voir tergiverser se demandent ce que leur réserve l’avenir, il est temps de vous ressaisir et de mettre fin à un énorme bluff politique!

Le bluff flamand repose sur deux douteux postulats. Le premier est que la Flandre sera plus prospère sans la Belgique et son boulet économique wallon. Le deuxième postulat consiste à croire, et faire croire, que les Wallons craignent le jour ou la Flandre fera sécession. Le plus stupéfiant c’est que le bluff a prit, et qu’il permet aux politiciens du cartel CD&V-NVA d’exercer un chantage politique surréaliste : « réforme de l’état selon nos termes ou sinon... » .

Bien plus que douteux, ces postulats sont en fait complètement infondés.
Prenons la prospérité de la Flandre. Si la Flandre déclarait son indépendance demain, le réveil pour les Flamands sera douloureux. Tout d’abord, la Belgique continuera d’exister, mais sans la Flandre. Le « Royaume de Belgique résiduel » comprendra alors la Wallonie, les cantons germanophones, et la Région Bruxelloise. Cela veut dire que la Flandre ne fera plus partie de l’Union Européenne, et du même coup plus d’Euro, ni d’espace Schengen pour les Flamands! Du point de vue juridique la Flandre deviendra un candidat potentiel à l’adhésion, aux cotés de la Turquie, et bien d’autres. Je vous laisse deviner la suite en ce qui concerne la réaction de l’Espagne, la Roumanie, et l’Allemagne. Tous sont pays membres de l’UE, ayant un droit de véto en matière d’adhésion, aux prises avec des régions potentiellement sécessionnistes.
Toujours sur le thème de la prospérité, la Flandre a un PIB en-deçà de la moyenne belge (je vous invite à consulter le site suivant en détail http://www.nbb.be/belgostat/PublicatieSelectieLinker?LinkID=56000000|910000082&Lang=F ). Une fois indépendante elle se retrouvera donc plus pauvre que la “Belgique résiduelle”.
Enfin, le jeune pays que sera la Flandre devra faire face à des demandes indépendantistes immédiates dans les communes à facilités. Ces demandes seront difficiles à refuser étant donné l’antécédent.

Il ne faut pas être un génie pour se rendre compte que la facture d’une sécession est impayable pour la Flandre et relativement acceptable pour la Wallonie. Et cela même sans avoir mentionné les ressources hydrologiques de la Wallonie (l’eau potable pourrait devenir chère en Flandre), le vieillissement de la population flamande relatif à la population wallonne, ou encore le réchauffement climatique et la montée du niveau de la mer.

Le chantage politique du cartel CD&V-NVA est en fait à l’image de leur manipulation de l’électorat flamand. Le cartel a radicalisé son électorat en lui promettant une prospérité indépendantiste. La fraude réside dans le fait que le CD&V-NVA a omit de mentionner le prix d’une telle indépendance à son électorat.

Il est donc temps de se ressaisir et de dénoncer le bluff. Le cartel n’aura alors plus qu’à imploser. Et si il persiste, et signe ? Et bien, il vous restera la Belgique, sans la Flandre. Le roi s’en remettra, ne vous inquiétez pas.

The Global Week Ahead: 10-16 Dec - A Lot of Microconflicts Developping

2007-12-09T23:42:00.000+01:00

1) Argentina: Kristina Kirchner becomes President of Argentina !
What ? Kristina Kirchner, wife of the incumbent President, swears oath and becomes president.
When? Monday, 10 December 2007, Buenos Aires.
Who? Hugo Chavez, Francois Fillon, and a lot of Latin American leaders.
What to watch out for ? Check out who else is present at the ceremony in particular from the US, Colombia and Mexico. Then, pay attention to her speech, it is likely to be a tone-setting speech for domestic policy as well as foreign policy. How will she speak of her husband's policies ?
Geopolitical significance: Kristina Kirchner arrives at a time when the Argentine economy is showing signs of overheating. She needs to reform the energy sector, cut back on government expenditures, and tame the worker unions demands. Her Husband had no problems flirting with Hugo Chavez, she is expected to be different on foreign policy, let us see what she will say and how she will behave towards Venezuela and the US. Latin America socialist scare might get another punch if she distances herself from Morales and Chavez.

2) Kosovo: UN Troika submits its report to the UN secretary general
What ? UN troika contact group (Russia, US, EU) report to the UN secretary general on the results of their second round of negotiations with the Serbs and Kosovars regarding a solution to Kosovo's demand for independence. In theory this is just supposed to be a technocratic step, kicking-off an UNSC review process that should culminate with a decision on the mandate of the UNMIK somewhere around the 19.12.07 or in January '08. The UN is widely expected to hand over its mandate to the EU. Kosovo could then unilaterally declare independence.
When? Monday 10 December 2007, New York.
Who? Mr Wolfgang Ischinger (EU), Mr Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko (Russia) and Mr Frank Wisner (US)
What to watch out for ? As the event is technocratic it will be largely symbolic. Watch out for Russia's statement and try to discern any loosening of the RU's rejection of Kosovo's independence. Security slippages are very possible in Kosovo, as ethnic Albanians are litterally boiling for independence. Watch out for the words of the newly elected leader of Kosovo, Thaci. Will he appease his citizens's expectations for independence, will he make independence committments with a date, or will he give a vague committment ?
Geopolitical significance: the Kosovo could go on fire and unleash a very hugly war in Kosovo, Macedonia, and Bosnie.

3) Lebanon: The cedars' president - 7th attempt.
What ? Constitutional amendment, followed by Presidential election of General Suleiman (expected candidate).
When? Tuesday 11th December 2007, Beirut.
Who? General Michel Suleiman.
What to watch out for ? Any delays, or a terrorist attack. What becomes of Aoun ?
Geopolitical significance: An election will put an end to the constitutional vacuum in one of the Middle East's most volatile country. It will aslo signal the US and Syria have agreed on Lebanon.

4) US-Fed: time for a cut ?
What ? The US Fed holds its monthly monetary policy meeting. It could cut rates by 50 or 25 bps, or stay neutral.
When? Tuesday 11th December 2007, New York.
Who? Ben Bernanke.
What to watch out for ? The magnitude of rate cut.
Geopolitical significance: 50 bps will send the markets on a rally and the barrel of oil 1-4 notches higher. a 25bps could be seen as neutral by the markets.

5) Palestine: Olmert and Abbas Meet for First Time since Annapolis
What ? Peace negotiations between Mahmood Abbas and Ehud Olmert. First round since the Annapolis Peace Conference on the 27.11.07.
When? Wednesday, 12th December 2007, tbc.
Who? Mahmood Abbas, Ehud Olmert.
What to watch out for ? Delays ? What will Ehud Olmert say about the settlements ban and the military vehicle delivery to the Palestinian Police Force.
Geopolitical significance: As the first meeting since Annapolis the meeting is important in determining the resolve of the leaders to build on the good spirit of Annapolis.

6) US-China: Strategic Economic Dialogue
What ? Strategic Economic Dialogue between China and the US.
When? Tuesday, 11-12th December, 2007, Beijing.
Who? Secretary Paulson leads a delegation of US trade officials (Schwab and Guttierrez) to meet Chinese officials.
What to watch out for ? China's committment to correct the trade deficit (I have no hopes about the Yuang). The level of satisfaction about the results of the talks expressed by the US delegation.
Geopolitical significance: China is under enormous pressure to do something about the Yuang undervaluation and the humongous trade surplus it has with the US (ca. $ 240bn). failure to appease US resentment could lead to protectionist measures by the US congress.

7) EU: Signing Ceremony of the Lisbon Treaty
What ? Signing ceremony of the Lisbon Treaty (ex-constitutional treaty) .
When? Wednesday, 12th December, 2007, Lisbon.
Who? 27 EU Member States.
What to watch out for ? Foto-opportunity.
Geopolitical significance: the EU will have a single treaty, president and minister of foreign affairs. Voting procedures in the council will allow double majority votes (55% of council and 65% of EU inhabitants).

8) South-Africa: ANC leadership elections
What ? election fo leader of ANC.
When? Thursday 13th December, 2007, Johannesbourg.
Who? Thabo Mbeki, Jacob Zuma, Tokyo Sexwhale.
What to watch out for ? any last minute withdrawal of candidacy. Any court proceedings against Jacob Zuma.
Geopolitical significance: Leadership of the ANC is a red carpet towards the presidency of the country (elections in 2009). Mr Mbeki and Zuma have fallen out with each others and risk splitting the party if the competition is played out in the leadership votes. The ANC could suffer immensly from an internal feud. Jacob Zuma is a leftist populist politician, which is not a great omen for businesses.

9) EU: EU-summit
What ? EU heads of states and government summit.
When? Friday 14th December, 2007, Brussel.
Who? 27 EU member states.
What to watch out for ? EU committments to opening Chapters with Turkey, to the activities of the PKK. EU strategy for Kosovo.
Geopolitical significance: Harmony-projects power. Divisision in EU ranks projects weakness. Kosovo, Turkey.

10) Pakistan: Musharaf lifts emergency rule... or not?
What ? self-imposed deadline for the emergency rule.
When? Sunday 16th December, 2007, Islamabad.
Who? Perwez Musharaf.
What to watch out for ? Will he stick to his words, will there be any terrorist attacks. Watch out for Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Shariff.
Geopolitical significance: this is a preliminary steps for free elections on the 8th of January 2008.

Iraq and the US: surge + Annapolis + NIE on Iran = Baker Hamilton report

2007-12-06T07:24:00.000+01:00

Don’t you think there is something intriguing about the consecutive occurrence of the Annapolis conference and the NIE report on Iran’s nuclear intentions? After all, in less than 7 days the US administration has maneuvered an implicit foreign policy U-turn. What is more surprising, however, is that this short succession of developments coincides perfectly with the first anniversary of the Baker-Hamilton report (also known as the Iraq Study Group Report), which was released on the 6^th of December 2006.

Willingly or not, US President George W. Bush, has celebrated the report’s anniversary by laying a solid groundwork for the implementation of all its recommendations including the most sensitive ones engaging Iran and Syria.

Proposing an “internal approach”, the Iraq Study Group recommended that “the Iraqi government … accelerate assuming responsibility for Iraqi security...and [that the] United States significantly increases the number of U.S. military personnel, including combat troops…”. That has been done and seems to succeed!

The report also proposed a different “external approach” that would include “a new diplomatic offensive” engaging Iran and Syria. Annapolis, on the one hand, sent the unmistakable signal that Syria had graduated from the axis of evil. Facts on the ground in Lebanon, and Iraq indicate that Annapolis was in fact the public culmination of an ongoing process. The latest NIE report, on the other hand, has taken the heat and military urgency away from the Iranian “file”, and instantly out-flanked the Iranophobic hawks in Washington. The administration can now contemplate talking seriously with Iran in a more constructive atmosphere.

Finally, the Baker-Hamilton report highlighted that “the United States cannot achieve its goals in the Middle East unless it deals directly with the Arab-Israeli conflict”. By all accounts, Bush is now doing this; both with Annapolis, and with his recent announcement that he will visit the Middle East in January 2008.

The facts are clear and all point in one direction: President Bush has decided to implement the most salient recommendations of the Baker-Hamilton report. And if you are tempted to doubt the sustainability and depth of this change of cap, be reminded of two things. Firstly, that not only the policy has changed, but also the people implementing it. Ronald Rumsfeld, John Bolton, Karl Rove, Paul Wolfowitz are all gone ! Secondly, the NIE was not released by mistake, or without prior approval of the President, Secretary of State, and Defense Secretary. They all knew the report’s outcome since the end of October, if not before. Allies of the US, such as France, the UK, Germany, Turkey, and Russia, judging from their non-reactions, were also briefed.

Although the administration’s motivations behind the policy shift include fascinating topics such as the mid-term election defeat, the upcoming Presidential battle, and bi-partisan dynamics, I favor considering its many implications, of which five are crystal clear to me.

One, Bush is as serious as he can be about the Palestinian Peace process and is likely to put all his weight, plus the little of Condoleeza Rice, behind it. The fact that Syria and Iran are now “engaged” reduces the downside risks emanating from the Hamas. The Baker-Hamilton report mentioned commitments to Afghanistan and some redeployment from Iraq in 2008, Bush will make good on this as well.

Two, the administration has done away with the “doctrine of unilateralism” and it can be sure to reap the benefits of that in Europe, Russia, the Sunni Middle East, and in non-Chinese Asia. Work the UN’s effectiveness, including passing resolutions against Iran, will benefit from this.

Three, The real lame duck in the White House will be Dick Cheney. From Cheney’s viewpoint, the NIE report has done to foreign policy what the mid-term election defeat and the Scooter Libby scandal did to domestic policy; it has discredited and silenced him. I wouldn’t be surprised if the wise men of the GOP convinced him to resign “for the sake of his ailing heart”.

Four, bi-partisan commissions, in a context of embattled White House and split congress, seem to be a constructive policymaking tool. The congress should consider putting up such a platform to decide on a “way forward” for Guantanamo Bay detainees.

Finally, President George W. Bush, has demonstrated unsuspected political acumen in dealing with the one of the US citizen’s biggest concern: how the unsuccessful war in Iraq affects the country’s standing. This indicates that Bush is intent on winning back public opinion, probably for the sake of the GOP. If he succeeds, and he can, the presidential contest will be much tighter than predicted and maybe a straight loss for Democrats that have spent a lot of energy and time blocking the President since they won the mid-term elections. I am no fan of Bush, and I do not think that the GOP deserves a third term in the White House, maybe that is why I can’t avoid noticing that they are doing the right things to give the Democrats a very, very hard time in the run-up to November 4, 2008.

Lebanon: Who sacrificed who at Annapolis (part I- editorial comments)

2007-12-01T13:24:00.001+01:00

Following Annapolis two line of thoughts have appeared regarding Lebanon in the aftermath of Annapolis.
The first, and most shared one is that the US has cut a deal with Syria handing over Lebanon (incl. the Hariri Tribunal) to them in return for support in Palestine and against Iran. This viewpoint is supported by General Sleiman surprising emergence as a compromise candidate.
The second viewpoint, is that no such deal has been cut but that Syria had an interest to start getting out of the Iranian axis and that it did so at Annapolis. Logically, therefore Syria stopped looking dangerous to the US. The emergence of Sleiman is then a reflection of this organic development.
This blog has decided to look into the arguments during the coming days. Polibel will publish a series of posts looking at question of Who Sacrificed who at Annapolis. This question bears particular importance, simply because Lebanon is the geopolitical barometer of the Middle East.

Lee Smith from the Weekly Standard, offers an apologetic (from US perspective) answer in his latest column "The Price of Annapolis", 30.11.2007.
His message is that there was no "deal", but that Syria manage to get away with its terrorist tactics because the US was so focused the Palestinian Peace process. Click here to read the article.

Turkey: Why Turkey Stands a Good Chance to Enter the EU, IF it Communicates Properly

2007-11-29T00:01:00.000+01:00

We keep being told that Turkey, this Muslim country of 72 Mln inhabitants, cannot possibly be a Member of the EU, let alone a Member State in its own right. As all the specialists very well know there are two broad sets of criteria for defining whether applicant countries have a right of entry into the EU, the so-called Copenhagen criteria.
On one hand the country must achieve "stability of institutions guaranteeing" democracy, human rights, rule of law, rights of minorities. The applicant must also have a functioning market economy and have integrated the so-called acquis. Those are the Copenhagen criteria as known by the entire world, and everybody knows that for Turkey to fulfill them is a matter of a few years (2-3). Turkey has got a long-standing relationship with the EU, a custom Union, and a constitutional structure that is copy pasted from France. Adopting the acquis is a technical issue, that could go very fast once was it not for the hidden Copenhagen criteria.
An often forgotten dimension of the criteria is the EU's absorption capacity, which is referred to in the next paragraph of the official treaty document(Chapter 7.a, iii). The crux of the matter is : who decides what the "absorption capacity" of the EU is. Well, the lack of clear sub-criteria on this and the domestic political games played by EU politicians has handed the "absorption capacity" criteria over to their public opinions.

I therefore did my homework and researched the available data on Turkish and EU public opinion. The result is that the public opinions are compatible.
The data speak for themselves. European and Turkish opinion share identical values (see bullet points 1 and 2) , and these are Peace, environment, social equality, and freedom of expression. The order is slightly different in each case, but the absolute % of respondents is not greatly dissimilar. The icing on the cake, however , is that all the talk about cultural differences has no place in the European mind (see bullet point 1, p.5). Europeans associate culture with arts, etc..., but not with religion. So away with all the talk about Turkey being Muslim and therefore incompatible with EU-membership.

The backbone of my reasoning is rooted in three different opinion polls published by Eurobarometer. The closeness and compatibility of Turkish and EU public opinions is startling.
1) On the cultural definition of the EU , check p. 5, for the Values of the EU see p. 77: European Cultural Values, Sep. '07.
2) Turkish public opinion analysis, on p.17 :
Eurobarometer on Turkey, 2007
3) Complementary, and revealing, data on "the concerns" of the Europeans, check p. 43 and 52: European Social Reality, Feb. 2007

What is the conclusion of this surprising insight... ?
Firstly, it seems once again that the Turks (who should be on the active side when it comes to convincing the EU public opinion) are doing a very poor job at communicating their similarities. Secondly, the Turkish politicians should start understanding the EU's position on Cyprus, PKK, Northern-Iraq, and the Armenian genocide in the light of the EU's values as ranked by the EU public opinion; nr.1 was Peace, and a few positions behind ... is freedom of expression. If Turks demonstrate exemplary behaviour on these

Turkey: The country has retreated from the Headlines but good hopes can still be nurtured

2007-11-28T23:56:00.000+01:00

On Monday, Abdullah Gul gave an interview to the French newspaper le Figaro in which he demonstrates all the skills needed to be a successful Turkish president. He is non-partisan, diplomatic, thoroughly logic, clearly on top of his subjects, and moderate.

Lebanon: latest editorials on the presidential elections

2007-11-27T00:15:00.001+01:00

Score this round for March 14 by Michael Young, Dailystar, 26.11.2007.
Hezbollah raises specter of long Lebanon power void , by Syria times, 26.11.2007
Le dossier de la présidentielle s’invite de toute évidence à Annapolis, L'Orient-le-Jour, 25.11.2007

La diplomatie impuissante à faire sortir le Liban de l'impasse, Le monde, 23.11.2007

The Conference of the Year: Annapolis Conference

2007-11-26T19:05:00.000+01:00

The conference is extraordinary in all aspects.

The attendee list is eye-popping, the absentee list is extraordinary short: Iran (and its part of Hamas). Moreover, the accross the board dismissal of its chance of success, a topic on which Mr Khamenei and the US media seem to strangely agree, has downplayed expectations in such a way that the absentees now seems to be shouldering all the downsides of the event (if the event succeeds they are left with nothing), while the attendees are left with the potential upsides (if the event fails well everybody had expected it). But the real significance of the conference is to be found in the implications of the attendees list. Let me flesh out the ones that are most obvious (feel free to add the ones that are missing).
1) Syria is making its first public steps outside its alliance with Iran. While Khamenei and Ahmadinejad sing in unison calling it a waste of time, Syria will be in Annapolis.
2) Saudi Arabia's FM presence within meters of the Israeli PM, for the purpose of discussing arab-israeli peace, blasts away all taboos about contacts with Israel. In that sense the meeting amounts to a historic ice-breaker, a game changer.
3) When media reports and pictures of the event hit the frontpages on the 28th, Iran will be left pondering whether it is not truly isolated. China is telling Iran to obey the UN, Russia tells them to forgive enrichment, the US-UK-FR are crystal clear about what they think of Iran's nuclear programme, Israel-Saudi Arabia and all major Sunni States find themselves weirdly aligned in their suspiscion of an Iran's nuclear ambition...surprise surprise all these sceptics will be at Annapolis.
4) As Bradley Burston writes, the secret weapon og the conference is the weakness of the protagonists. http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/928139.html
5) Bush has picked up a strategic objective for 2008 that will be the key vector of the Administration Middle Policy in 2008: Middle East Peace process. The republicans are gonna love him for revamping their image in this crucial electioneering year. And as all america watchers know well the republicans are less dependent on the Israeli lobby than the democrats.

Syria's ultimate objective is NOT Lebanon.

2007-11-26T17:16:00.001+01:00

I am always shocked to read distinguished analysts, such as the admirable beirutspring editor falling fool to the typical lebanese syndrom of "Syria wants to own us" (probably because we are all too smart and beautiful).

In principle it is indeed true that Annapolis could be inconsequential for Lebanon. I do however disagree with the bulk of your reasons, which I think reflect a fundamental misconception of Syria’s interests.
“Syria’s real demand is Lebanon, not the Golan” . That quote expresses the intellectual symptom of a profound, though understandable, misunderstanding of Syria’s key interests.Bashar El-Assad’s real interest is to stay in power and “in the money”. Power as far as Assad is concerned is based on a full spoon of fear among the populace, as well as a need for legitimacy. Legitimacy of the Assad regime is based on 1) arabism, whose sole rationale is the struggle against the “zionist enemy”. 2) it relies on a certain social pact with the Syrians by which the regime provides food and stability in return for political apathy. That is why the Golan and not Lebanon is so important to Bashar and his clique. If they want to consolidate their legitimacy they have got to get Israel on its knees and present themselves like the triumphant victors of a 40-year long struggle. Lebanon in this respect is only important in so far as it allows Syria to increase its leverage on Israel through the southern borders. Syria did that first through the Palestinians until 1983 and then with Hezbollah. Lebanese need to understand that, especially the Christians from the FL, if they are to have a sober view of what is happening today.Now, “what about the murder of Harriri” you will ask me! The Syrians had without doubt a key interest in this horrific murder. But not because they so wanted to own Lebanon per se. The problem they had with Rafiq Harriri is that he had become too important to control. Rafiq Harriri enjoyed solid international support, he was about to realign with the Christians, but most importantly as a successful and Powerful Sunni he was the only moderate Levantine politician from the Sunni sect capable of mounting a very serious challenge to the Assad regime from within Syria. Rafiq Harriri’s friendship with Abdul Halim Khaddam has to be understood in this light. Syria, who still needed, and still needs, Lebanon at that time had no other choice than assassinating a person who had the charisma and network necessary to uproot the Assads in Syria.
Finally a brief word on being “in the money” (which means to be profitable). Assad does not need to own Lebanon to be in the money. Quite to the contrary. What he needs is economic reform, FDIs, trade relationship with decent countries, and a nice pipeline from Kirkouk to Tartouz. The problem is that he cannot liberalize the economy without loosening the nod around the average Syrian’s neck and without challenging his own internal barons. In order to have the strength to do that, Bashar need to regain the Golan, parade in Damascus as the long awaited hero, and implement the long awaited reforms. It is doubtful whether he has the necessary skills for that, but that is not what I am discussing here and he still has some times left to learn and be convinced.

Annapolis will be inconsequential for Lebanon, if Syria and the US cannot agree on the price of Syria’s return to the community of decent nation. Bashar will want guarantees that the UN tribunal will not incriminate him, nor his brother in law (that will suffice to keep the latter happy), he will want guarantees that Israel will dismantle the colonies on the Golan and agree in principle on sovereignty over the waters of the sea of Galilee, he will demand to keep a Syria friendly president in Lebanon so that he can regulate Hezbollah and use it as his last bargaining chip that he will only drop once the Syrian flag floats on the shore of the Sea of Galilee. It is not at all sure that the US will agree with that price. That is why I agree in principle that Annapolis might be inconsequential.

The Global Week Ahead - 26 Nov-02 Dec: What you have to watch out for

2007-11-26T16:58:00.000+01:00

1) Annapolis Peace Conference (www)
What ? United States will host a conference at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland. It is intended to be the "launching point for negotiations leading to the establishment of a Palestinian state and the realization of Israeli-Palestinian peace".
When? Tuesday, 27 November 2007.
Who? George Bush, Condoleeza Rice, Prime Minister Olmert, Palestinian Authority President Abbas, along with the Members of the Quartet, the Members of the Arab League Follow-on Committee, the G-8, the permanent members of the UN Security Council, and other key international actors including Syria (deputy FM) and Saudi Arabia (FM), but NOT Iran.
What to watch out for ? A recognition of UN 242; Israeli commitment to stop settlement expansion and start dismantling illegal colonies; a firm timeline; Engagement of Syria; any signs of Syrian-Israeli meeting; the role of Russia in the peace process, any sideline agreement between Russia and US on Kosovo, conventional arms treaty, and Missile defense shield. Geopolitical significance: Middle East peace process, departure of Syria from the Syrian-Iranian axis, Lebanese presidential elections, implicit recognition of Israel by Arab League.

2) EU-China Summit & France China-Summit (www)
What ? annual EU-China Summit, by nature focused on trade and economic ties. This year it will be preceded by a visit of the Eurozone monetary policy makers.
When? Monday 26 (France-China), Tuesday 27 (Eurozone Policy-makers) and Wednesday (EU-China Summit) 28 November 2007, Beijing.
Who? Monday: Sarkozy, Hu Jiantao. Tuesday: Jean-Claude Trichet, Jean-Claude Juncker, Joaquín Almunia. Wednesday: Barroso, Joaquín Almunia, Peter Mandelson, Wen Jibao
What to watch out for ? Hu Jintao's comments on Iran, Lebanon and Kosovo. Who exactly is representing the Chinese side ? Any CB officials, Minister of Economy, Finance ? Scrutinize the closing remarks for a Chinese promise on currency re-evaluation; any signs of tensions (no progress).
Geopolitical significance: the beginning of a serious trade row between China and the EU-US.

3) Lebanon: The cedars' president.
What ? Presidential election, in Parliament has been postponed beyond constitutional limit, despite enormous diplomatic efforts to have it done on time.
When? Friday 30th November 2007.
Who? Possible candidates include: Michel Aoun, Michel Edde, Robert Ghanem, Damianos Kattar, Nassib Lahoud, Boutros Harb.
What to watch out for ? Is it actually taking place on time? US-Syrian understanding in Annapolis, Iran's position.
Geopolitical significance: A successful presidential election will signal that Syria and the US have converging views in the Middle East, confirmation of the Syrian rupture from the Iran-Syria axis.

4) Pakistan: the first week of the internal trio
What ? For the first time in 10 years the three political juggernauts and archrivals of the 1990s are inside Pakistan at the same time.
Who? Nawaz Sharif, Benazir Bhutto, Perwez Musharraf.
What to watch out for ? Assassination attempts against any of the three, Terrorist attacks, political rallies, Release of Iftikar Chaudry, Resignation of Musharraf as General, end of Emergency rule.
Geopolitical significance: extreme domestic instability in a nuclear armed country, preventive strike potential from India and USA.

5) Russia parliamentary elections: democracy for dummies
What ? Duma elections.
When? Sunday 2nd December 2007.
Who? 450 seats contested by: Liberal Democratic Party, United Russia, Other Russia (opposition coalition); Communist party.
What to watch out for ? Any surprising results from the opposition and the communists, Putin's hints at his role in United Russia.
Geopolitical significance: Parliamentary election in G8 country, strong suspicion sub-standard election could spark serious international outcry, putin's stronghold over the country will determine his indirectly proportional to his intransigence on Kosovo, Conventional Arms treaty, and the missile defense shield, Georgia, Ukraine.

6) Kosovo: last hopeless sprint
What ? final negotiating round of Troika (EU-Russia-US) with Serbs and Kosovars.
When? Monday- Wednesday 26-28 November 2007, Vienna.
Who? Diplomat level, maybe some foreign ministers on Wednesday.
What to watch out for ? Any signs that Kosovo could prematurely decide to declare independence, Any sign that they would do so by the 10.12.2007 even if the EU advises against. Geopolitical significance: Bosnia, Serbia, EU-Russia relations, Macedonia.

7) Venezuela: the day of Truth for Chavez
What? National referendum to remove terms limit on serving president.
When? Sunday 2 December, 2007.
Who ? Chavistas vs anti-Chavistas and Students.
What to watch out for ? Army coup if Chavez wins, former General and Defense Minister warned that the referendum amounted to a coup, large demonstrations in the week to come, watch out for army comments.
Geopolitical significance ? a serious blow/consolidation for the socialist/bolivarian revolution in South America at a time when Argentina is turning more pragmatic and Cuba is about to loose Castro.

Pakistan: The Infernal Trio is back

2007-11-25T18:48:00.000+01:00

There is something odd about Nawaz Sharif's return to Pakistan today. I have this discomforting sense of déja vu. Pakistan's political scene is now dominated by the three protagonists of the 1990s: Musharraf, Bhutto and Sharif. Is this a good or a bad thing ? I will flesh out the arguments in the paragraph below, but let me summarize them to those that are in a hurry. It is a bad thing. Why should a loosing trio, that hate each other suddenly turn out to be a winning team ? Well there is no reason and that is why the return of the infernal trio is a bad thing that will end as it did in the 1990s.

The answer to the question will become self-evident once I have refreshed your memory of the 1990s.
Benazir Bhutto was first into the dance in 1988, becoming the Muslim world first Prime Minister. Her father, that headed the first civilian government since Pakistan's creation, had been putsched-out, imprisoned (1977), and executed by Zia ul-Haq (1979), who imposed a military dictatorship from 1977 to 1988. Following imprisonment and exile, Benazir made a glorious return to Pakistan in 1986, attracting large crowds at political rallies. A situation not dissimilar to her October return. Positioning herself as the political alternative of a military, islamophile dictator, she became PM in 1988 following Zia's suspicious death in an air crash. She stayed in office from 1988 to 1990, and from 1993 to 1996. On both occasions she was dismissed from office by the president for corruption allegations. Her time in office is remembered for her political ineffectiveness peppered by a general strike, for the numerous corruption allegations (some of which very credible) against her and her husband, as well as for the critical development of the Pakistani nuclear program under her watch. Her credentials against the islamists are close to nill in practice.
Nawaz Sharif, also got his two chances in office. He comes from a family of conservative, industrialists, who had suffered first hand at Bhutto senior nationalisation scheme. His rise to prominence was the result of some weird twist of fate as recounted by Hassan Abbas. When Zia ul-Haq, decided to put a human face on his dictatorship he allowed civilian cabinets in the provinces. Nawaz's father to whom Punjab governor owed a favor for having supervised the construction of his residence, was promised a good job for his son in the Punjabi cabinet. When it appeared that Nawaz brother, Shabaz, had been earmarked for the provincial finance ministry, Nawaz was introduced as a substitute for Shabaz whose acumen was too essential for the family business. Nawaz eventually made it to Prime Minister following each of Bhutto's stints in office. His first term ended in a dismissal for corruption, while his second ended when he dismissed Perwez Musharraf and barred his plane from landing in Pakistan...the army took over and exiled him (1999). His premiership was defined by his low intellect, his very close association with Saudi Arabia and the islamists, a war with India under his watch (Kargil, 1998), and Pakistan's nuclear test. One can fairly say that he was some sort of puppet.
The final protagonist is Pervez Musharraf. The man is by far the smartest of the three, and he profoundly distrusts both Bhutto and Sharif (who tried to kill him). Musharraf appointed a capable prime minister, governed over decent economic growth, but has not managed to gain the hearts and minds of the public opinion. Islamisation of Pakistan went on full-power under his presidency, though he fully aligned himself with the US. Musharraf seems to enjoy strong support within the army, which is in part rooted in his aptitude at attracting some US money (about a bn$/year) for his soldiers.

Now, that these three persons are back in Pakistan each with serious political ambitions, and some sort of constituency how are the upcoming parliamentary elections gonna play out ? Well it will be messy both during the campaign and in the aftermath of the elections.
If Bhutto and Nawaz agree not to challenge Musharraf's presidentiality, elections will proceed in a decent atmosphere maybe even without state of emergency. What will come afterwards will be very messy, neither Bhutto nor Nawaz can govern, they will fail economically and politically, pushing the country into the hands of the military once again.
If no deal is struck, Musharraf will have to neutralise them or be neutralised. If it is the former, the elections will be rigged, and Pakistan will descend into some form of military-led lethargy until Musharraf is assassinated. If it is the latter, Bhutto and Nawaz will lead the country into some sort of political chaos, at which point the army will take over and impose martial order. The population will show understanding at first, but soon enough dissatisfaction will re-emerge from which the islamists, and opposition movement will benefit.

What is the way out ? A civilised way out, in view of the social, religious, and ethnic realities is not in sight. A military led repression during several years, emerging into forced stability, is the scenario with the highest chance. Such a scenario is only feasible with the support of the US. It has therefore no realistic chance of success before the 1st half of 2009. The return of the trio will thus bring the 1990s back , and end as in the 1990s with the emergence of a military dictatorship.

Until then Pakistan will be highly unstable and on a worsening trend. Investors and geostrategist beware! (the nuclear dimension has not been discussed here, because it only matters in interstate conflicts and not in domestic conflicts)

Why the latest development in the Lebanese presidential elections is barely surprising. When kilim sellers are doing high-flying diplomacy.

2007-11-23T08:59:00.001+01:00

Is it surprising that the majority answered no? Of course not! One needs to see Aoun's proposal and the majority's rebuke in the light of a major silent battle between the US and Syria. Thinking that the majority’s decision is a sign of bravado and courage is preposterous.

Syria has decided that it would accept to leave the Iranian axis and re-align with Saudi Arabia and Jordan at the condition that it is allowed relentless control of Hezbollah.
Why, do I think so? Firstly, because the ultimate aim of Assad is to regain the Golan, the Sea of Galilea and its water. The only price he is willing to pay for that is his support to Hezbollah (+ alliance with Iran) and hamas. Hence, Assad needs to retain control over Lebanon's presidency in order to better regulate (i.e. protect, nurture, and restrain) Hezbollah. Secondly, the US and Syria have quietly warmed up to each others during the last 3-4 months. Traces of US-Syrian cooperation can be spotted in many area, though it is the clearest in Iraq . The US success in Anbar province and their recent ability to eliminate terrorist HR-smuggling cells (see IHT of 22/11/2007) are a direct result of Syria’s, at the minimum, passive collaboration.

Syria's capacity to regulate Israel's domestic security through Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon makes it a cornerstone of the process that will be started in Annapolis on 27.11. Bush seems to have realized that his only way not to go to jail (or enter the annals of history as the worst US president) after he leaves office is to boost the republican's standing by 1) stabilising Iraq, and isolate Iran 2) revamp the US' image in the Muslim world.
In order to do the first he needs the full support of Saudi Arabia and Syria (Provided Iran and Saudi Arabia are not intent on a Sunni-Shiia bloodbath that should be enough). As to the second objective, Bush needs to give the Palestinians some elements of a just peace. That "some elements of just peace" is exactly what Annapolis is about to kick-start. To be half-way credible, however, the Saudis (first and foremost), but also of the Syrians have to be at the Annapolis table (else Hamas could easily provoke the Israeli into a full scale, but also bloody, invasion of Gaza that would nip the peacenik efforts of Abbas in the bud).

That is where Lebanon enters the equation. The Syrian have allowed rumors to spread (on the 21.11) that they will not go to Annapolis because there was no reference to the Golan in the invitation. On the other hand, a week ago they agreed on a consensual presidential candidate for Lebanon, and they allowed Khaled Meshal to give an interview on Hardtalk where he was very conciliatory regarding Annapolis. What does this tell us? Well, it tells us that the Syrians are keeping their options open on Annapolis. Presumably to leave them time to extract the best price for their participation.
The latest Aounist proposal reflects exactly that; it has inflated the price of the Syrian participation to Annapolis. It is a little bit like a kilim seller in the Souk Hammidieh who at the last minute raises the price of an “Ajannib’s” long coveted object of purchase.
The main question is whether the US is willing to pay Syria’s price? Will they leave the carpet seller’s bazaar shouting “to hell with him and his kilims”, or will they enter a last bargaining round in order to purchase that beautiful kilim which they are sure will be loved by their friends and foes on capitol hill? Arguably the US will enter a last bargaining round. They will accept to put the Golan on the Annapolis' agenda (or at least make it part of the process that will be kick-started there), in return Syria will have to satisfy itself with a 6-year term of a Sfeir nominee or a third party unknown (that will be Ghanem, Edde, or Kattar).

The majority's decision to go to the parliament therefore makes perfect sense. It puts pressure on Syria, which will then more readily accept an American concession.

There is still one unknown: Hezbollah and Iran. They do not sell kilims, but finely woven Persian carpets. My hunch here is that Iran has never been as isolated as today for the last 3 years (China, Russia, the US, and France+Britain+60% Germany are all aligned). Iran is not in a position to co-opt Bashar, who is still reeling from the subliminal message conveyed by the Israeli air strike in early September. Remember, the Iranians are thought to have the same radar facilities.
Bashar is now in a race with Iran to open-up to the US first. Lebanon's presidential election and Annapolis are his opportunities and he will take them, because he his getting a very good deal (a relatively weak non-March 14 president, and a place on the table of the big ones from which he can leverage much more power than from his current parasitic position) .
The dices are thrown and God does not play with dices.

Lebanon's Presidential Elections : explode-defuse, explode-defuse.... it is a 45/55 case

2007-11-19T08:43:00.000+01:00

The Lebanese parliament has until the 23rd of November to elect a President, that is no more than 5 days. The term of the current president, Emile Lahoud, will end on the 24th, day on which he will hand-over power...but to who ?
The constitution stipulates that the president "shall be elected by secret ballot and by a two thirds majority of the Chamber of Deputies. After a first ballot, an absolute majority shall be sufficient. see constitution . In a manner reminiscent of the dynamics of the last Turkish presidential elections the Hizbollah-Aounist opposition interprets the constitution as requiring a 2/3 quorum for all sessions. The president is to be elected for a 6 years-term, and by customs has to be Maronite. One can dwell endlessly on the details, but suffice to state that the parliament (128 seats) is divided between a Sunni-Christian (ca 70) majority of and a Shiite-Christian (Hezbollah-Amal-Aounist) minority (ca 58).
The opposition's quorum claim has super-heated the debate for anything else than a consensus candidate (a candidate elected with a 2/3 quorum) would lead to the opposition to claim that since the majority had acted unconstitutionally, it was entitled to act as such and to elect its own president. yes, Lebanon might well have 2 presidents and two governments by the end of the week.

Behind the two blocs hide all major regional powers. The majority has the open support of France, the US, and Saudi Arabia, while the minority can count on Iran and Syria. One noteworthy absentee from this shortlist is Israel...the reason for that is that the US represents its case.

Two questions will need to be answered before a presidential nominee will be agreed on. Firstly, will the US agree to talk eye to eye with Syria and to accommodate their requests for a president acceptable to Syria ? Or will they instead beat the democracy drum and tell Syria, for a second time, that it is either "with them or against them"?
The second question is who is an acceptable candidate for the Syrians ?

On the first question, the US willingness to backtrack on its democratic rhetoric vis a vis a plainly undemocratic regime bent on using muscles and TNT to get things its way in Lebanon is a function of US and Israeli interests. The US republican administration needs to stabilise Iraq, and contain Iran's nuclear ambitions. In both case they will need the support of Saudi Arabia and also of Syria. The crux of the matter is that Saudis and Syrians aren't on speaking terms anymore. As to the Israeli, its interests lie in prolonging the current rock-bottom weakness of the Arab states in order to settle its borders and its issue with Palestinians under favourable terms. Translated into a Syria-policy, this means keep the Assad regime, enlist it into a Palestinian peace deal favourable to Israel in return for which the Syrians will get the Golan. The alternative for Assad is such a messy anti-Semitic/turbocharged fundamentalist perspective that Assad is honey to the Israeli. The only regime, they argue that can rein over Hezbollah and the fundamentalist forces of the Levant is the Assad dynasty. Regarding Iran, Israel has a very clear incentive to contain its ambitions as well.
To sum it all, the only hurdle to a US-Syrian entente is Saudi Arabia. The tensions between Saudi Arabia and Syria are essentially about the leadership of the Sunni world, and of the fight against the historic enemy Israel. Since Saudis also have an interest in bringing Syria back to the anti-Iranian league, they might well support an entente with Syria but at what price ? Presumably, Saudi could just be satisfied with a Syrian-acceptable president in Lebanon if the Prime Minister is a strong Sunni figure and if Syria supports an Annapolis peace deal at the end of November. To reach that the US will need to pressurize Israel to make the necessary concessions to the Palestinians, allow a pro-Syrian candidate to emerge in Lebanon, and squeeze Walid Jumblatt and Samir Geagea a bit.

As to the Syria-acceptable candidates. There are too many Maronite in Lebanon to present an exhaustive list. A better approach would be to proceed by elimination. As a principle Syria will want a president who guarantees that it keeps some form of control of Hezbollah, and that slows down the development of the Harriri tribunal. Nassib Lahoud is out of question for his strong affiliation with the Harriri camp. Michel Aoun, would be too risky for unpredictable and capable of cornering Hezbollah if he unifies the christians. Demenaos Katar, possible. Robert Ghanem, acceptable, due to his decent stance towards Syria and his Bekaa constituency which makes him an easy subject of Syrian intelligence services.

My hunch is that it will be either Katar or Ghanem. The next questions however, will be who will be Prime Minister.
Although tensions are likely to defuse in the short-term as the elections of a president pushes away the prospect of two governments in Lebanon, no solutions will offer magic answers regarding the electoral law that requires drafting before 2009, the Harriri tribunal, and Hezbollah's normalisation into Lebanon's polity.

Lebanon will be the last neighbour of Israel to stabilise. First the Palestinian will need their just deal. Then the Syrians will have to get their shore on the Lake of Galilea. And then only will it be possible to have realistic hopes that Lebanon will enjoy political stability, economic reform, and peace. Look at Annapolis Peace conference if you want an indicator of where the country's prospects stand.