Why the latest development in the Lebanese presidential elections is barely surprising. When kilim sellers are doing high-flying diplomacy.

Is it surprising that the majority answered no? Of course not! One needs to see Aoun's proposal and the majority's rebuke in the light of a major silent battle between the US and Syria. Thinking that the majority’s decision is a sign of bravado and courage is preposterous.

Syria has decided that it would accept to leave the Iranian axis and re-align with Saudi Arabia and Jordan at the condition that it is allowed relentless control of Hezbollah.
Why, do I think so? Firstly, because the ultimate aim of Assad is to regain the Golan, the Sea of Galilea and its water. The only price he is willing to pay for that is his support to Hezbollah (+ alliance with Iran) and hamas. Hence, Assad needs to retain control over Lebanon's presidency in order to better regulate (i.e. protect, nurture, and restrain) Hezbollah. Secondly, the US and Syria have quietly warmed up to each others during the last 3-4 months. Traces of US-Syrian cooperation can be spotted in many area, though it is the clearest in Iraq . The US success in Anbar province and their recent ability to eliminate terrorist HR-smuggling cells (see IHT of 22/11/2007) are a direct result of Syria’s, at the minimum, passive collaboration.

Syria's capacity to regulate Israel's domestic security through Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon makes it a cornerstone of the process that will be started in Annapolis on 27.11. Bush seems to have realized that his only way not to go to jail (or enter the annals of history as the worst US president) after he leaves office is to boost the republican's standing by 1) stabilising Iraq, and isolate Iran 2) revamp the US' image in the Muslim world.
In order to do the first he needs the full support of Saudi Arabia and Syria (Provided Iran and Saudi Arabia are not intent on a Sunni-Shiia bloodbath that should be enough). As to the second objective, Bush needs to give the Palestinians some elements of a just peace. That "some elements of just peace" is exactly what Annapolis is about to kick-start. To be half-way credible, however, the Saudis (first and foremost), but also of the Syrians have to be at the Annapolis table (else Hamas could easily provoke the Israeli into a full scale, but also bloody, invasion of Gaza that would nip the peacenik efforts of Abbas in the bud).

That is where Lebanon enters the equation. The Syrian have allowed rumors to spread (on the 21.11) that they will not go to Annapolis because there was no reference to the Golan in the invitation. On the other hand, a week ago they agreed on a consensual presidential candidate for Lebanon, and they allowed Khaled Meshal to give an interview on Hardtalk where he was very conciliatory regarding Annapolis. What does this tell us? Well, it tells us that the Syrians are keeping their options open on Annapolis. Presumably to leave them time to extract the best price for their participation.
The latest Aounist proposal reflects exactly that; it has inflated the price of the Syrian participation to Annapolis. It is a little bit like a kilim seller in the Souk Hammidieh who at the last minute raises the price of an “Ajannib’s” long coveted object of purchase.
The main question is whether the US is willing to pay Syria’s price? Will they leave the carpet seller’s bazaar shouting “to hell with him and his kilims”, or will they enter a last bargaining round in order to purchase that beautiful kilim which they are sure will be loved by their friends and foes on capitol hill? Arguably the US will enter a last bargaining round. They will accept to put the Golan on the Annapolis' agenda (or at least make it part of the process that will be kick-started there), in return Syria will have to satisfy itself with a 6-year term of a Sfeir nominee or a third party unknown (that will be Ghanem, Edde, or Kattar).

The majority's decision to go to the parliament therefore makes perfect sense. It puts pressure on Syria, which will then more readily accept an American concession.

There is still one unknown: Hezbollah and Iran. They do not sell kilims, but finely woven Persian carpets. My hunch here is that Iran has never been as isolated as today for the last 3 years (China, Russia, the US, and France+Britain+60% Germany are all aligned). Iran is not in a position to co-opt Bashar, who is still reeling from the subliminal message conveyed by the Israeli air strike in early September. Remember, the Iranians are thought to have the same radar facilities.
Bashar is now in a race with Iran to open-up to the US first. Lebanon's presidential election and Annapolis are his opportunities and he will take them, because he his getting a very good deal (a relatively weak non-March 14 president, and a place on the table of the big ones from which he can leverage much more power than from his current parasitic position) .
The dices are thrown and God does not play with dices.