There is something odd about Nawaz Sharif's return to Pakistan today. I have this discomforting sense of déja vu. Pakistan's political scene is now dominated by the three protagonists of the 1990s: Musharraf, Bhutto and Sharif. Is this a good or a bad thing ? I will flesh out the arguments in the paragraph below, but let me summarize them to those that are in a hurry. It is a bad thing. Why should a loosing trio, that hate each other suddenly turn out to be a winning team ? Well there is no reason and that is why the return of the infernal trio is a bad thing that will end as it did in the 1990s.
The answer to the question will become self-evident once I have refreshed your memory of the 1990s.
Benazir Bhutto was first into the dance in 1988, becoming the Muslim world first Prime Minister. Her father, that headed the first civilian government since Pakistan's creation, had been putsched-out, imprisoned (1977), and executed by Zia ul-Haq (1979), who imposed a military dictatorship from 1977 to 1988. Following imprisonment and exile, Benazir made a glorious return to Pakistan in 1986, attracting large crowds at political rallies. A situation not dissimilar to her October return. Positioning herself as the political alternative of a military, islamophile dictator, she became PM in 1988 following Zia's suspicious death in an air crash. She stayed in office from 1988 to 1990, and from 1993 to 1996. On both occasions she was dismissed from office by the president for corruption allegations. Her time in office is remembered for her political ineffectiveness peppered by a general strike, for the numerous corruption allegations (some of which very credible) against her and her husband, as well as for the critical development of the Pakistani nuclear program under her watch. Her credentials against the islamists are close to nill in practice.
Nawaz Sharif, also got his two chances in office. He comes from a family of conservative, industrialists, who had suffered first hand at Bhutto senior nationalisation scheme. His rise to prominence was the result of some weird twist of fate as recounted by Hassan Abbas. When Zia ul-Haq, decided to put a human face on his dictatorship he allowed civilian cabinets in the provinces. Nawaz's father to whom Punjab governor owed a favor for having supervised the construction of his residence, was promised a good job for his son in the Punjabi cabinet. When it appeared that Nawaz brother, Shabaz, had been earmarked for the provincial finance ministry, Nawaz was introduced as a substitute for Shabaz whose acumen was too essential for the family business. Nawaz eventually made it to Prime Minister following each of Bhutto's stints in office. His first term ended in a dismissal for corruption, while his second ended when he dismissed Perwez Musharraf and barred his plane from landing in Pakistan...the army took over and exiled him (1999). His premiership was defined by his low intellect, his very close association with Saudi Arabia and the islamists, a war with India under his watch (Kargil, 1998), and Pakistan's nuclear test. One can fairly say that he was some sort of puppet.
The final protagonist is Pervez Musharraf. The man is by far the smartest of the three, and he profoundly distrusts both Bhutto and Sharif (who tried to kill him). Musharraf appointed a capable prime minister, governed over decent economic growth, but has not managed to gain the hearts and minds of the public opinion. Islamisation of Pakistan went on full-power under his presidency, though he fully aligned himself with the US. Musharraf seems to enjoy strong support within the army, which is in part rooted in his aptitude at attracting some US money (about a bn$/year) for his soldiers.
Now, that these three persons are back in Pakistan each with serious political ambitions, and some sort of constituency how are the upcoming parliamentary elections gonna play out ? Well it will be messy both during the campaign and in the aftermath of the elections.
If Bhutto and Nawaz agree not to challenge Musharraf's presidentiality, elections will proceed in a decent atmosphere maybe even without state of emergency. What will come afterwards will be very messy, neither Bhutto nor Nawaz can govern, they will fail economically and politically, pushing the country into the hands of the military once again.
If no deal is struck, Musharraf will have to neutralise them or be neutralised. If it is the former, the elections will be rigged, and Pakistan will descend into some form of military-led lethargy until Musharraf is assassinated. If it is the latter, Bhutto and Nawaz will lead the country into some sort of political chaos, at which point the army will take over and impose martial order. The population will show understanding at first, but soon enough dissatisfaction will re-emerge from which the islamists, and opposition movement will benefit.
What is the way out ? A civilised way out, in view of the social, religious, and ethnic realities is not in sight. A military led repression during several years, emerging into forced stability, is the scenario with the highest chance. Such a scenario is only feasible with the support of the US. It has therefore no realistic chance of success before the 1st half of 2009. The return of the trio will thus bring the 1990s back , and end as in the 1990s with the emergence of a military dictatorship.
Until then Pakistan will be highly unstable and on a worsening trend. Investors and geostrategist beware! (the nuclear dimension has not been discussed here, because it only matters in interstate conflicts and not in domestic conflicts)
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