The Global Week Ahead - 26 Nov-02 Dec: What you have to watch out for

1) Annapolis Peace Conference (www)
What ? United States will host a conference at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland. It is intended to be the "launching point for negotiations leading to the establishment of a Palestinian state and the realization of Israeli-Palestinian peace".
When? Tuesday, 27 November 2007.
Who? George Bush, Condoleeza Rice, Prime Minister Olmert, Palestinian Authority President Abbas, along with the Members of the Quartet, the Members of the Arab League Follow-on Committee, the G-8, the permanent members of the UN Security Council, and other key international actors including Syria (deputy FM) and Saudi Arabia (FM), but NOT Iran.
What to watch out for ? A recognition of UN 242; Israeli commitment to stop settlement expansion and start dismantling illegal colonies; a firm timeline; Engagement of Syria; any signs of Syrian-Israeli meeting; the role of Russia in the peace process, any sideline agreement between Russia and US on Kosovo, conventional arms treaty, and Missile defense shield. Geopolitical significance: Middle East peace process, departure of Syria from the Syrian-Iranian axis, Lebanese presidential elections, implicit recognition of Israel by Arab League.

2) EU-China Summit & France China-Summit (www)
What ? annual EU-China Summit, by nature focused on trade and economic ties. This year it will be preceded by a visit of the Eurozone monetary policy makers.
When? Monday 26 (France-China), Tuesday 27 (Eurozone Policy-makers) and Wednesday (EU-China Summit) 28 November 2007, Beijing.
Who? Monday: Sarkozy, Hu Jiantao. Tuesday: Jean-Claude Trichet, Jean-Claude Juncker, Joaquín Almunia. Wednesday: Barroso, Joaquín Almunia, Peter Mandelson, Wen Jibao
What to watch out for ? Hu Jintao's comments on Iran, Lebanon and Kosovo. Who exactly is representing the Chinese side ? Any CB officials, Minister of Economy, Finance ? Scrutinize the closing remarks for a Chinese promise on currency re-evaluation; any signs of tensions (no progress).
Geopolitical significance: the beginning of a serious trade row between China and the EU-US.

3) Lebanon: The cedars' president.
What ? Presidential election, in Parliament has been postponed beyond constitutional limit, despite enormous diplomatic efforts to have it done on time.
When? Friday 30th November 2007.
Who? Possible candidates include: Michel Aoun, Michel Edde, Robert Ghanem, Damianos Kattar, Nassib Lahoud, Boutros Harb.
What to watch out for ? Is it actually taking place on time? US-Syrian understanding in Annapolis, Iran's position.
Geopolitical significance: A successful presidential election will signal that Syria and the US have converging views in the Middle East, confirmation of the Syrian rupture from the Iran-Syria axis.

4) Pakistan: the first week of the internal trio
What ? For the first time in 10 years the three political juggernauts and archrivals of the 1990s are inside Pakistan at the same time.
Who? Nawaz Sharif, Benazir Bhutto, Perwez Musharraf.
What to watch out for ? Assassination attempts against any of the three, Terrorist attacks, political rallies, Release of Iftikar Chaudry, Resignation of Musharraf as General, end of Emergency rule.
Geopolitical significance: extreme domestic instability in a nuclear armed country, preventive strike potential from India and USA.

5) Russia parliamentary elections: democracy for dummies
What ? Duma elections.
When? Sunday 2nd December 2007.
Who? 450 seats contested by: Liberal Democratic Party, United Russia, Other Russia (opposition coalition); Communist party.
What to watch out for ? Any surprising results from the opposition and the communists, Putin's hints at his role in United Russia.
Geopolitical significance: Parliamentary election in G8 country, strong suspicion sub-standard election could spark serious international outcry, putin's stronghold over the country will determine his indirectly proportional to his intransigence on Kosovo, Conventional Arms treaty, and the missile defense shield, Georgia, Ukraine.

6) Kosovo: last hopeless sprint
What ? final negotiating round of Troika (EU-Russia-US) with Serbs and Kosovars.
When? Monday- Wednesday 26-28 November 2007, Vienna.
Who? Diplomat level, maybe some foreign ministers on Wednesday.
What to watch out for ? Any signs that Kosovo could prematurely decide to declare independence, Any sign that they would do so by the 10.12.2007 even if the EU advises against. Geopolitical significance: Bosnia, Serbia, EU-Russia relations, Macedonia.

7) Venezuela: the day of Truth for Chavez
What? National referendum to remove terms limit on serving president.
When? Sunday 2 December, 2007.
Who ? Chavistas vs anti-Chavistas and Students.
What to watch out for ? Army coup if Chavez wins, former General and Defense Minister warned that the referendum amounted to a coup, large demonstrations in the week to come, watch out for army comments.
Geopolitical significance ? a serious blow/consolidation for the socialist/bolivarian revolution in South America at a time when Argentina is turning more pragmatic and Cuba is about to loose Castro.