The Global Week Ahead: 17th of November 2008

1) Pakistan: Friends of Pakistan Summit
What ? A summit of countries allied to Pakistan is to be held in Abu Dhabi. The summit is expected to offer economic and political support.

When? Monday the 17^th of November 2008.

Who? Ali Zardari, China, US, EU, Germany, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Britain, France, Canada, Turkey, Australia.

What to watch out for? Significant and immediate economic aid to the tune of $10bn.

Geopolitical significance? Pakistan is a nuclear power, with a homegrown Islamic insurgency, and serious political instability. With its Foreign Reserves declining fast, it is quickly heading to a balance of payment crisis. A full-blown balance of payment crisis would lead to a technical bankruptcy, which would potentially turn Pakistan into a failed state in which Islamist are the only alternative.

2) France: Opposition elects leader

What ? The socialist party (PS) of France is to elect a new leader to replace Francois Hollande, who decided to resign after 11 years. The election follows a party Congress that was held in Reims on the 14^th-15^th-16^th of November 2008. The congress was marred by acrimonious rivalries and public spats between the tenors of the party. Four factions have emerged from the congress: Bertrand Delanoe, Benoit Hamon, Segolene Royal, Martine Aubry.

When? Thursday 20^th of November.
Who? It is expected that there will be three candidates running: Benoit Hamon (could retract in favour of Aubry), Ségolène Royal, Martine Aubry.
What to watch out for: in a three-way contest Ségolène Royal is likely to win, but if Hamon retracts in favour of Martine Aubry, a very tight run-off would be on the cards.

Geopolitical significance: The leadership election of the PS will be crucial for determining the socio-political pressure that the opposition will place on Nicolas Sarkozy. The only candidate representing the center is Ségolène Royal. All others support a more radical social agenda.

3) USA: Lame-duck Congress Session

What ? Nancy Pelosi, the house leader, called for a lame duck session for this week on the 11^th of November. Lame duck sessions of the U.S. Congress happen in even numbered years when Congress has to reconvene following the November general election to take care of unfinished legislation. Some lawmakers who return for this session lost their bids for reelection and will not be in the next Congress. Hence, they are informally called "lame duck" members participating in a "lame duck" session.

When? Week of the 17^th of November 2008.
Who? Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Tom Daschle, Harry Reid, and other congressional leader.
What to watch out for: a $25bn aid package for Ford and GM. Whether Obama will participate and come to the Hill.

Geopolitical significance: failure to pass legislation in support of Ford and GM, could lead to their bankruptcy by year-end, and trigger a global equity sell-off of considerable magnitude.

5) Iraq: Security Pact needs Parliament Approval

What ? The US and the Iraqi government have come to terms on a Security Pact that would allow US forces to stay beyond the 31^st of December 2008. The cabinet voted 27 against 13 in favour of the pact. Now, parliament needs to vote on it before it can be ratified by the President.

When? Week of the 17^th of November.
Who? Iraqi Parliament, Iran, Grand Ayathollah Ali Al-Sistani.
What to watch out for: a quick approval, and the position of Muqtada al-Sadr.

Geopolitical significance: This pact will seal the mid-term presence of US troops in Iraq, and serve as a guarantee for a modicum of political stability in Iraq for the next 12 months.

6) Syria: David Milliband visits Syria

What ? David Milliband, Foreign Minister of the UK, is set to pay an official visit to Syria. This is the first UK visit since the Iraq war but it comes after a similar visit by Sakozy. The visit confirms Syria’s return to the international community. A development which will be of serious concerns for Iran.

When? Tuesday the 20^th of November 2008.
Who? David Milliband, Hafez El-Assad.
What to watch out for: a renewed Syrian pledge for ambassador exchange with Lebanon, a disavowal of Hamas, some form of closer cooperation.

Geopolitical significance: Things rarely develop in a radical fashion in Damascus. And so is its rapprochement with the international community. David Milliband’s visit is a key step in confirming Syria’s engagement. Such an engagement would de facto weaken the Syrian-Iranian alliance. Moreover, this comes at a time when Iran is experiencing serious economic woes.

7) Iran: A window of opportunity has opened for Israel

What ? It has long been argued that a window of opportunity to strike Iran would open for Israel between the US elections and Inauguration day on the 20^th of January 2009. The argument is that Israel would benefit from the incumbent’s president support without having to convince the new occupant to the White House.

When? 4^th of November 2008 – 19^th of January 2009.
Who? Iran (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Khamenei) and Israel (Ehoud Olmert, Dagan)
What to watch out for: A military operation inside Iran’s territory.

Geopolitical significance: The geopolitical domino effects are potentially powerful and will have a regional impact from Lebanon to Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

The Global Week Ahead: 10th-17th of November 2008

1) USA: Barack Obama’s Cabinet
What ? Presidents-elect usually nominate key-cabinet appointment before they take office. With Rahm Emmanuel’s appointment only 2 days after the elections, Obama is signaling that his intent is to act swiftly and decisively.

When? Week of the 10^th of November 2008.

Who? Barack Obama.

What to watch out for? Appointments to watch for are: National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense (top candidate: Robert Gates), Secretary of State (top candidate: Bill Richardson), Secretary of the Treasury. Will McCain get a job as well in one of the intelligence agencies ?

Geopolitical significance? The appointments will set the tone in all policy matters, in particular economic and foreign policy.

2) Global Financial Crisis: G20 summit
What ? President Bush has called a G20 summit in Washington to discuss a global response to the financial crisis. The summit will include non-OECD countries such as China, Brazil, India, and Russia.

When? Sunday 14^th of November.
Who? Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The European Union is also a member, represented by the rotating Council presidency and the European Central Bank..
What to watch out for: Who will attend from Obama’s team ? Whether any concrete promises will be made.

Geopolitical significance: It is the first time that Emerging Market Countries are brought into the crisis room to discuss a solution. In a way, it signals a new era in the balance of power between the OECD-countries and the Emerging-countries.

3) Iran: A window of opportunity has opened for Israel

What ? It has long been argued that a window of opportunity to strike Iran would open for Israel between the US elections and Inauguration day on the 20^th of January 2009. The argument is that Israel would benefit from the incumbent’s president support without having to convince the new occupant to the White House.

When? 4^th of November 2008 – 19^th of January 2009.
Who? Iran (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Khamenei) and Israel (Ehoud Olmert, Dagan)
What to watch out for: A military operation inside Iran’s territory.

Geopolitical significance: The geopolitical domino effects are potentially powerful and will have a regional impact from Lebanon to Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Response to Josh Landis on US intervention in Abu Kamal (Syria)

Josh Landis from Syria Comment, commented on the US raid in Abu Kamal in his blog (02/11/2008) . I responded with the following input:

Josh,

There are many reasons why the Syrian regime could have been complicit!
But let us start with some definitions.

Syrian regime: the very small circle around Bashar El-Assad. The comments of the Syrian embassy in Washington, although probably honest, are therefore irrelevant.
Complicit: took a deliberate decision not to derail or undermine the effectiveness of the raid. I assume here that the raid was effective.

What could be the motives for the complicity of the Syrian regime ?
1) Internal struggle within the security forces. By allowing the US to target people who could not have been active without support from the security services, the regime by default undermines the concerned security officials whose only cover was the territorial integrity of Syria.
2) The murder of Brigadier General Muhammad Suleiman, and/or that of Mugniyhe, can be seen through the same lens, notwithstanding who actually pulled the trigger/pushed the button: i.e. purging of security officials or terrorists who had become too cumbersome.

What are the indications that the Syrian Regime was complicit?
1) the speed at which Syrian media were allowed to broadcast on the event was absolutely stunning. And unprecedented, when Israel bombed the suspected nuclear site the Syrian response was quasi non-existing. When Israel targeted a tent camp within Syria several years ago, it was again Israel who broke the news. The fact that this media coverage took place in Abu Kamal several long hours away from Damascus, and a bastion of the mukhabarat reinforces the impression that the regime was ready to go LIVE.
2) The Syrian regime while intent on earning some media dividends, has conspicuously refrained from raising the stakes. Why do they not try to push for a UNSC resolution? Full knowing that it would fail, it would certainly give the regime an extra card to negotiate with the new US president. But no! Syria is not interested in that, it seems. All the regime wants, apparently, is some benevolent media attention.

In sum, Syria is as opaque as ever and the US raid has raised many unanswered questions. It is far too early to brush aside reports that Syria was complicit. There are enough indicators that it could have been the case. But one cannot be sure.

The Global Week Ahead: 30.06-06.07.08

1) Turkey: The final phase of the AKP closure case
What ? The constitutional court will hear the oral arguments of the prosecutor, Yalcinkaya, and AKP, in the AKP closure case. This represents the last phase of the closure case before the court starts the deliberation process.
When? Oral arguments of the prosecutor general, Yalcinkaya, on 01.07.08. The arguments of AKP on 03.07.08.
Who? Abdurrahman Yalçınkaya (prsecutor accusing AKP) , AKP lawyers and Tayyip Erdogan, it is unlikely that Tayyip Erdogan appears in court but his statements in the run-up and aftermath are important.
What to watch out for? The oral plea is always important. It could determine the duration of the CC deliberation. If new arguments are presented, the parties will be given time to produce written proofs and counter-arguments. Alternatively, there could be a major clash with the justices, that could spill-over in the public domain under the form of a major public debate.
Geopolitical significance? Turkey’s economic convergence. The survival of a government and party that was critical in bringing Syria and Israel closer. The survival of one of the most credible Europhile government in decades.

2) Zimbabwe: Will uncle Bob be confronted
What ? Robert Mugabe was sworn in on the 29.06.08, after Friday’s presidential election run-off. The Elections have been described as not representing the will of the people by regional observers. The opposing candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, withdrew from the race after scores of killings, physical attacks, and forcible displacement struck his supporters. Zimbabwe is on the brink of complete economic (Hyperinflation, hunger, poverty, lowest life expectancy in the world) and political disaster (ruthless dictatorship). Mugabe is due to attend a conference of the African Union in Sharm el –sheikh (Egypt). Thabo Mbeki, president of South Africa has so far refrained from condemning Robert Mugabe. He is widely perceived as the only regional leader capable of coordinating an effective response to the Mugabe’s regime.
When? 01.07.08.
Who? Robert Mugabe, Thabo Mbeki.
What to watch out for: Robert Mugabe reception at the African Union summit. Will he be recognized as Zimbabwe’s leader ? What will be Thabo Mbeki’s official position vis-à-vis Zim.
Geopolitical significance: Africa is witnessing a remake of the dictatorships of the 70s in Zim. Bening complacency on behalf of African leaders would signal that democracy is not a sancrosanct concept for them. The implications for the political transition in South Africa would be, to say the least, worrying.
Interesting Comments on the topic:
Robert I. Rotberg: http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/27/opinion/edrotberg.php

3) EU: France takes the presidency
What ? France takes over the rotating 6-months presidency of the EU council.
When? 01.07.08.
Who? Nicolas Sarkozy, Manual Baroso.
What to watch out for: Sarkozy’s solution with respect to the EU constitutional treaty, and the Irish no to it. Sarkozy’s announcement on European defense. His speeches on the independence of the European Central Bank.
Geopolitical significance: Sarkozy is an energetic leader, in search of a political victory to shore up his domestic popularity. He was a key backer of the EU treaty, the agreement of which he abusively presented as a French achievement. He now has to deal with the Irish no, put some flesh on his EU defense plan, and substantiate his Mediterranean vision. Cela passera ou cela cassera !

4) Serbia: pro-EU government sworn in
What? Serbia is due to elect a pro-EU government.
When? Week of 1^st of July 2008.
Who? Mirko Cvetkovic (DS), prime minister nominee.
What to watch out for? The declaration of the government on the EU association agreement and Kosovo. Collaboration with the The Hague tribunal, and the arrest of Karadzic.
Geopolitical significance: The Association agreement is likely to be promptly ratified in parliament. EU convergence path will find a renewed impetus.

Linking the dots

· Wall street shares slide almost to March lows (FT, 28.06), http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3942168-4448-11dd-b151-0000779fd2ac.html

· 80% of Americans hold negative views about the economy (Gallup, 29.06), http://www.gallup.com/poll/107827/Gallup-Daily-Americans-Current-Views-Economy.aspx

· As of June 28, 52% of Americans report receiving an economic stimulus payment from the U.S. government. (Gallup, 29.06). http://www.gallup.com/poll/107212/Gallup-Daily-Tax-Rebate-Tracker.aspx

· More Americans think it is important to fix the economy than to fight terrorism (Gallup, 27.06.08). This is especially clear among democrats and independents, Republicans see the opposite. That might be why only 30% of Americans identify themselves with republicans. http://www.gallup.com/poll/108415/Americans-Prioritize-Economy-Over-Terrorism.aspx

Blog tip

A pearl of a blog on Syria and Lebanon. Joshua Landis blog, Syria Comment, screens all domestic and Syria-related regional developments, comments on them, and weblinks them to third-party commentators.

The Global Week Ahead: 05.05.2008 - 12.05.2008

1) China-Japan: President Hu Jintao visists Japan
What ? Chinese state visits to Japan have always had a historic character. Notwithstanding the differences in size of the countries, it can be compared to German-French state visits. It is about two fierce enemies seeing eye to eye again. It is Hu Jintao’s first foreign visit since the start of Tibetan protests.
When? Tuesday 6^th of May 2008.
Who? Hu Jintao meets Yassuo Fukuda.
What to watch out for ? North Korea will be on the Agenda, Tibetan monks demonstration, comments on the territorial over the East China Sea gas field.
Geopolitical significance? Beijing wants to stabilize its foreign policy ahead of the Olympic games. Japan has different priorities, however, including North Korea, protection and expansion of its business interests in China, and a permanent seat at the UN.

2) Russia: Twin-headed state
What ? Medvedev is sworn in. He is the first Russian Head of State since the Soviet Union’s collapse that is not from the Communist Party, nor from the security services is sworn in
When? Wednesday 7^th of May 2008.
Who? Dimitri Medvedev, Vladimir Putin.
What to watch out for: When presidents change in Russia they usually like to take their country to war to establish their nationalist credentials. Yeltsin did it before and after his re-election. Putin did it after his elections. What about Medvedev? A war could easily be started in Georgia.
On the other hand, Medvedev represents fresh liberal blood. The tone in foreign affairs could change dramatically…for the best.
Geopolitical significance: EU gas supplies, Caucasus stability, Turkey’s stability.

3) Israel 60^th Anniversary
What ? Israel will celebrate its 60^th Birthday. For most Arab countries this will be a painful day. For the likes of Hezbollah, Iran, Al Qaeda, and Hamas, it will be unbearable to look at Israel celebrate its existence. By the same token, it will be very tempting to strike the Jewish state.
When? Hebrew Calendar, 8th of May 2008, Roman Calendar 14^th of May 2008
Who? Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, Hamas, Al Qaeda.
What to watch out for: Big headline attacks that could lead to a Middle East war, the presence or the absence of the strategic allies during the celebrations. President G.W. Bush has announced himself, but a last minute cancellation is not excluded.
Geopolitical significance: Oil prices would go through the roof. Lebanon could disintegrate into civil war. The Assad regime could be wiped away. Iran could be attacked.

4) Serbia at a crossroad
What? Serbia holds parliamentary and local elections.
When? Sunday the 11th of May 2008.
Who? DSS (Kostunica), DS (Tadic, president), Nikolic (Radicals)
What to watch out for? Any signals from the Commission on Slovakia joining the Eurozone.
Geopolitical significance: Slovakia is now first in line to join the Euro. The country has met all the eurozone criteria. A decision to delay Slovakia’s entry would therefore be entirely political and thus damaging for the efforts of other newly joined member states. A spat on slovakia would deepen the New vs Old Europe divide.

5) Eurozone: l’auto-critique
What? The EC will present an overview of the eurozone as it approaches its tenth anniversary. The report coincides with the commission’s public assessment of the euro candidates..
When? Week of the 5th of May 2008.
Who? European Commission, Belgian Prosecutor general.
What to watch out for? Any signs that Slovakia will join the Eurozone.
Geopolitical significance: Slovakia is now first in line to join the Euro. The country has met all the eurozone criteria. A decision to delay Slovakia’s entry would therefore be entirely political and thus damaging for the efforts of other newly joined member states.

The Global Week Ahead: 28 April- 2 May 2008

1) EU-Russia Partnership: When the political mosquitoes league matters

What ? EU and Russia hold talks on a strategic partnership.
When? Tuesday 29^th of April 2008.
Who? Russia, EU Commission.
What to watch out for ? Lithuania has announced that they will veto any deals with Russia in protest to Russia’s bullying tactics against Lithuania and Georgia.
Geopolitical significance: As Medvedev is about to being sworn, liberal Russia needs a concession from the West that can silence the siloviki in the Kremlin.

2) Turkey: AKP submits written defense in closure case, or maybe not!

What? AKP has to submit its defence case to the constitutional court in written. It can, however, request a three month extension.
When? Friday 2^nd of May 2008.
Who? AKP, Tayip Erdogan.
What to watch out for? Will AKP submit an extension request, or send the signal that it is ready to face the court? The court will almost certainly accept a timeline extension request if a demand comes in.
Geopolitical significance: Turkey is hugely important for the Emerging Market sentiment in the financial world.

3) Olympic torch arrives in China
What? The Olympic torch has finally arrived in China. Chinese authorities can now be relieved, they control everything. On the other side media scrutiny is set to increase, and the flame is approaching Tibet.
When? Sunday 4^th of April 2008.
Who? Chinese government.
What to watch out for ? Any signs of disturbances in Tibet.
Geopolitical significance: Human rights hick-ups could lead to China bashing, which would in turn lead reactionary nationalism in Chin, which could then harm global trade.

4) Middle East: week before the storm
What ? Next week Israel will celebrate its 60^th Birthday. For most arab countries this will be a painful day. For the likes of Hezbollah, Iran, Al Qaeda, and Hamas, it will be unbearable to look at Israel celebrate.
When? All the days leading to the 14^th of May 2008
Who? Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, Hamas, Al Qaeda.
What to watch out for: Big headline attacks that could lead to a Middle East war.
Geopolitical significance: Oil prices would go through the roof. Lebanon could disintegrate into civil war. The Assad regime could be wiped away. Iran could be attacked.

5) Russia: the first President that is not from the Communist Party, nor from the security services is sworn in
What ? Medvedev is sworn in.
When? Wednesday 7^th of May 2008.
Who? Dimitri Medvedev, Putin
What to watch out for: When presidents change in Russia they usually like to take their country to war to establish their nationalist credentials. Yeltsin did it after his re-election. Putin did it after his elections. And what will Medvedev do. A war could easily be started in Georgia.
On the other hand, Medvedev represents fresh liberal blood. The tone in foreign affairs could change dramatically…for the best.
Geopolitical significance: EU gas supplies, Caucasus stability, Turkey’s stability.

The Global Week Ahead: 21-27.04.2004

1) Iraq: Neighbours conference
What ? Kuwait is holding an Iraq's neighbour's conference.
When? Tuesday, 21.04.2008, Kuwait City.
Who? Nuri al-Maliki, Iraq's foreign Minister.
What to watch out for ? Signs that the Gulf states will write off the Iraqi debt from Saddam's time. Signal's that GCC will open embassies in Bagdad. So far GCC officials have not even travelled on state visits to Iraq, bar from the Kurdish region.
Geopolitical significance: Sunni engagement in the stabilisation of Iraq.

2) Iraq: Sadr , fight or not fight!
What ? Sadr warned the government over the weekend to stop aggressions of his militias else.....
When? Week of 21.04.2008, Bagdad.
Who? Mr Muqtadda Al-sadr and his mehdi army.
What to watch out for ? If Muqtadda Al-sadr and his mehdi army decide to take on the Iraqi government and the US army openly, hell will break over Iraq.
Geopolitical significance: Iran-US relations, US presidential elections. Recent analyses have suggested to ways of analysing the situation. One, articulated by French historian Mr. Adler, is that Sadrists are supported by the Ahmadinejad clan in Iran, while Maliki is supported by the pragmatists. An alternative view implied by is that Iran supports all shiite clans and is quite happy at seeing them tearing each other apart from now. This would look more like Syria's role in Lebanon.

3) US: Pennsylvania Primaries.
What ? Pennsylvania Primaries, Clinton must win by 10% or over to win the expectations games. Although in terms of delegates count Pennsylvania is unlikely to change much to the status quo.
When? Tuesday, 21.04.2008, USA.
Who? Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama.
What to watch out for: Clinton must win by 10% or over to win the expectations games. A clinton victory will put pressure on Obama to win in Indiana.
Geopolitical significance: The Foreign Policy style of each of them is significantly different.

4) Georgia: When will the tensions subside ?
What ? Last week Russia announced that it would establish formal links with Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhasia and South Ossetia. It amounts to a de facto recognition, and comes after a long period of Russification of the breakaway provinces.
When? Week of 21.04.2008.
Who? Mikheil Saakashvili, Valdimir Putin.
What to watch out for: Tensions could escalate in the coming weeks as Putin is likely to want to send a message to his hardliners that he is not letting them down, while at the same time give an implicit warning to Ukraine of what could happen if they were to act in a way that is perceived as hostile.
Geopolitical significance: Kosovo, lowers the temperature of an other European frozen conflict, NATO expansions could be at risk or boosted depending on how one looks at it.

5) Zimbabwe: Anything can happen!
What ? Refusing apparent defeat, President Mugabe has ordered a recount of votes, while cracking down on dissent. Suffering from hyperinflation the country is collapsing.
When? from now until Mugabe leaves power.
Who? President Mugabe (ZANU-PF), Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai (MDC).
What to watch out for: Humanitarian Disaster.
Geopolitical significance: The moral credibility of the African liberation movements such as Zanu PF and, most crucially, ANC is at stake. A failure would turn the clock backwards on the African continent and signal that the despotic regimes are to be tolerated again.