The Global Week Ahead: 17th of November 2008

1) Pakistan: Friends of Pakistan Summit
What ? A summit of countries allied to Pakistan is to be held in Abu Dhabi. The summit is expected to offer economic and political support.

When? Monday the 17^th of November 2008.

Who? Ali Zardari, China, US, EU, Germany, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Britain, France, Canada, Turkey, Australia.

What to watch out for? Significant and immediate economic aid to the tune of $10bn.

Geopolitical significance? Pakistan is a nuclear power, with a homegrown Islamic insurgency, and serious political instability. With its Foreign Reserves declining fast, it is quickly heading to a balance of payment crisis. A full-blown balance of payment crisis would lead to a technical bankruptcy, which would potentially turn Pakistan into a failed state in which Islamist are the only alternative.

2) France: Opposition elects leader

What ? The socialist party (PS) of France is to elect a new leader to replace Francois Hollande, who decided to resign after 11 years. The election follows a party Congress that was held in Reims on the 14^th-15^th-16^th of November 2008. The congress was marred by acrimonious rivalries and public spats between the tenors of the party. Four factions have emerged from the congress: Bertrand Delanoe, Benoit Hamon, Segolene Royal, Martine Aubry.

When? Thursday 20^th of November.
Who? It is expected that there will be three candidates running: Benoit Hamon (could retract in favour of Aubry), Ségolène Royal, Martine Aubry.
What to watch out for: in a three-way contest Ségolène Royal is likely to win, but if Hamon retracts in favour of Martine Aubry, a very tight run-off would be on the cards.

Geopolitical significance: The leadership election of the PS will be crucial for determining the socio-political pressure that the opposition will place on Nicolas Sarkozy. The only candidate representing the center is Ségolène Royal. All others support a more radical social agenda.

3) USA: Lame-duck Congress Session

What ? Nancy Pelosi, the house leader, called for a lame duck session for this week on the 11^th of November. Lame duck sessions of the U.S. Congress happen in even numbered years when Congress has to reconvene following the November general election to take care of unfinished legislation. Some lawmakers who return for this session lost their bids for reelection and will not be in the next Congress. Hence, they are informally called "lame duck" members participating in a "lame duck" session.

When? Week of the 17^th of November 2008.
Who? Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Tom Daschle, Harry Reid, and other congressional leader.
What to watch out for: a $25bn aid package for Ford and GM. Whether Obama will participate and come to the Hill.

Geopolitical significance: failure to pass legislation in support of Ford and GM, could lead to their bankruptcy by year-end, and trigger a global equity sell-off of considerable magnitude.

5) Iraq: Security Pact needs Parliament Approval

What ? The US and the Iraqi government have come to terms on a Security Pact that would allow US forces to stay beyond the 31^st of December 2008. The cabinet voted 27 against 13 in favour of the pact. Now, parliament needs to vote on it before it can be ratified by the President.

When? Week of the 17^th of November.
Who? Iraqi Parliament, Iran, Grand Ayathollah Ali Al-Sistani.
What to watch out for: a quick approval, and the position of Muqtada al-Sadr.

Geopolitical significance: This pact will seal the mid-term presence of US troops in Iraq, and serve as a guarantee for a modicum of political stability in Iraq for the next 12 months.

6) Syria: David Milliband visits Syria

What ? David Milliband, Foreign Minister of the UK, is set to pay an official visit to Syria. This is the first UK visit since the Iraq war but it comes after a similar visit by Sakozy. The visit confirms Syria’s return to the international community. A development which will be of serious concerns for Iran.

When? Tuesday the 20^th of November 2008.
Who? David Milliband, Hafez El-Assad.
What to watch out for: a renewed Syrian pledge for ambassador exchange with Lebanon, a disavowal of Hamas, some form of closer cooperation.

Geopolitical significance: Things rarely develop in a radical fashion in Damascus. And so is its rapprochement with the international community. David Milliband’s visit is a key step in confirming Syria’s engagement. Such an engagement would de facto weaken the Syrian-Iranian alliance. Moreover, this comes at a time when Iran is experiencing serious economic woes.

7) Iran: A window of opportunity has opened for Israel

What ? It has long been argued that a window of opportunity to strike Iran would open for Israel between the US elections and Inauguration day on the 20^th of January 2009. The argument is that Israel would benefit from the incumbent’s president support without having to convince the new occupant to the White House.

When? 4^th of November 2008 – 19^th of January 2009.
Who? Iran (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Khamenei) and Israel (Ehoud Olmert, Dagan)
What to watch out for: A military operation inside Iran’s territory.

Geopolitical significance: The geopolitical domino effects are potentially powerful and will have a regional impact from Lebanon to Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

The Global Week Ahead: 10th-17th of November 2008

1) USA: Barack Obama’s Cabinet
What ? Presidents-elect usually nominate key-cabinet appointment before they take office. With Rahm Emmanuel’s appointment only 2 days after the elections, Obama is signaling that his intent is to act swiftly and decisively.

When? Week of the 10^th of November 2008.

Who? Barack Obama.

What to watch out for? Appointments to watch for are: National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense (top candidate: Robert Gates), Secretary of State (top candidate: Bill Richardson), Secretary of the Treasury. Will McCain get a job as well in one of the intelligence agencies ?

Geopolitical significance? The appointments will set the tone in all policy matters, in particular economic and foreign policy.

2) Global Financial Crisis: G20 summit
What ? President Bush has called a G20 summit in Washington to discuss a global response to the financial crisis. The summit will include non-OECD countries such as China, Brazil, India, and Russia.

When? Sunday 14^th of November.
Who? Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The European Union is also a member, represented by the rotating Council presidency and the European Central Bank..
What to watch out for: Who will attend from Obama’s team ? Whether any concrete promises will be made.

Geopolitical significance: It is the first time that Emerging Market Countries are brought into the crisis room to discuss a solution. In a way, it signals a new era in the balance of power between the OECD-countries and the Emerging-countries.

3) Iran: A window of opportunity has opened for Israel

What ? It has long been argued that a window of opportunity to strike Iran would open for Israel between the US elections and Inauguration day on the 20^th of January 2009. The argument is that Israel would benefit from the incumbent’s president support without having to convince the new occupant to the White House.

When? 4^th of November 2008 – 19^th of January 2009.
Who? Iran (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Khamenei) and Israel (Ehoud Olmert, Dagan)
What to watch out for: A military operation inside Iran’s territory.

Geopolitical significance: The geopolitical domino effects are potentially powerful and will have a regional impact from Lebanon to Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Response to Josh Landis on US intervention in Abu Kamal (Syria)

Josh Landis from Syria Comment, commented on the US raid in Abu Kamal in his blog (02/11/2008) . I responded with the following input:

Josh,

There are many reasons why the Syrian regime could have been complicit!
But let us start with some definitions.

Syrian regime: the very small circle around Bashar El-Assad. The comments of the Syrian embassy in Washington, although probably honest, are therefore irrelevant.
Complicit: took a deliberate decision not to derail or undermine the effectiveness of the raid. I assume here that the raid was effective.

What could be the motives for the complicity of the Syrian regime ?
1) Internal struggle within the security forces. By allowing the US to target people who could not have been active without support from the security services, the regime by default undermines the concerned security officials whose only cover was the territorial integrity of Syria.
2) The murder of Brigadier General Muhammad Suleiman, and/or that of Mugniyhe, can be seen through the same lens, notwithstanding who actually pulled the trigger/pushed the button: i.e. purging of security officials or terrorists who had become too cumbersome.

What are the indications that the Syrian Regime was complicit?
1) the speed at which Syrian media were allowed to broadcast on the event was absolutely stunning. And unprecedented, when Israel bombed the suspected nuclear site the Syrian response was quasi non-existing. When Israel targeted a tent camp within Syria several years ago, it was again Israel who broke the news. The fact that this media coverage took place in Abu Kamal several long hours away from Damascus, and a bastion of the mukhabarat reinforces the impression that the regime was ready to go LIVE.
2) The Syrian regime while intent on earning some media dividends, has conspicuously refrained from raising the stakes. Why do they not try to push for a UNSC resolution? Full knowing that it would fail, it would certainly give the regime an extra card to negotiate with the new US president. But no! Syria is not interested in that, it seems. All the regime wants, apparently, is some benevolent media attention.

In sum, Syria is as opaque as ever and the US raid has raised many unanswered questions. It is far too early to brush aside reports that Syria was complicit. There are enough indicators that it could have been the case. But one cannot be sure.

The Global Week Ahead: 30.06-06.07.08

1) Turkey: The final phase of the AKP closure case
What ? The constitutional court will hear the oral arguments of the prosecutor, Yalcinkaya, and AKP, in the AKP closure case. This represents the last phase of the closure case before the court starts the deliberation process.
When? Oral arguments of the prosecutor general, Yalcinkaya, on 01.07.08. The arguments of AKP on 03.07.08.
Who? Abdurrahman Yalçınkaya (prsecutor accusing AKP) , AKP lawyers and Tayyip Erdogan, it is unlikely that Tayyip Erdogan appears in court but his statements in the run-up and aftermath are important.
What to watch out for? The oral plea is always important. It could determine the duration of the CC deliberation. If new arguments are presented, the parties will be given time to produce written proofs and counter-arguments. Alternatively, there could be a major clash with the justices, that could spill-over in the public domain under the form of a major public debate.
Geopolitical significance? Turkey’s economic convergence. The survival of a government and party that was critical in bringing Syria and Israel closer. The survival of one of the most credible Europhile government in decades.

2) Zimbabwe: Will uncle Bob be confronted
What ? Robert Mugabe was sworn in on the 29.06.08, after Friday’s presidential election run-off. The Elections have been described as not representing the will of the people by regional observers. The opposing candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, withdrew from the race after scores of killings, physical attacks, and forcible displacement struck his supporters. Zimbabwe is on the brink of complete economic (Hyperinflation, hunger, poverty, lowest life expectancy in the world) and political disaster (ruthless dictatorship). Mugabe is due to attend a conference of the African Union in Sharm el –sheikh (Egypt). Thabo Mbeki, president of South Africa has so far refrained from condemning Robert Mugabe. He is widely perceived as the only regional leader capable of coordinating an effective response to the Mugabe’s regime.
When? 01.07.08.
Who? Robert Mugabe, Thabo Mbeki.
What to watch out for: Robert Mugabe reception at the African Union summit. Will he be recognized as Zimbabwe’s leader ? What will be Thabo Mbeki’s official position vis-à-vis Zim.
Geopolitical significance: Africa is witnessing a remake of the dictatorships of the 70s in Zim. Bening complacency on behalf of African leaders would signal that democracy is not a sancrosanct concept for them. The implications for the political transition in South Africa would be, to say the least, worrying.
Interesting Comments on the topic:
Robert I. Rotberg: http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/27/opinion/edrotberg.php

3) EU: France takes the presidency
What ? France takes over the rotating 6-months presidency of the EU council.
When? 01.07.08.
Who? Nicolas Sarkozy, Manual Baroso.
What to watch out for: Sarkozy’s solution with respect to the EU constitutional treaty, and the Irish no to it. Sarkozy’s announcement on European defense. His speeches on the independence of the European Central Bank.
Geopolitical significance: Sarkozy is an energetic leader, in search of a political victory to shore up his domestic popularity. He was a key backer of the EU treaty, the agreement of which he abusively presented as a French achievement. He now has to deal with the Irish no, put some flesh on his EU defense plan, and substantiate his Mediterranean vision. Cela passera ou cela cassera !

4) Serbia: pro-EU government sworn in
What? Serbia is due to elect a pro-EU government.
When? Week of 1^st of July 2008.
Who? Mirko Cvetkovic (DS), prime minister nominee.
What to watch out for? The declaration of the government on the EU association agreement and Kosovo. Collaboration with the The Hague tribunal, and the arrest of Karadzic.
Geopolitical significance: The Association agreement is likely to be promptly ratified in parliament. EU convergence path will find a renewed impetus.

Linking the dots

· Wall street shares slide almost to March lows (FT, 28.06), http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3942168-4448-11dd-b151-0000779fd2ac.html

· 80% of Americans hold negative views about the economy (Gallup, 29.06), http://www.gallup.com/poll/107827/Gallup-Daily-Americans-Current-Views-Economy.aspx

· As of June 28, 52% of Americans report receiving an economic stimulus payment from the U.S. government. (Gallup, 29.06). http://www.gallup.com/poll/107212/Gallup-Daily-Tax-Rebate-Tracker.aspx

· More Americans think it is important to fix the economy than to fight terrorism (Gallup, 27.06.08). This is especially clear among democrats and independents, Republicans see the opposite. That might be why only 30% of Americans identify themselves with republicans. http://www.gallup.com/poll/108415/Americans-Prioritize-Economy-Over-Terrorism.aspx

Blog tip

A pearl of a blog on Syria and Lebanon. Joshua Landis blog, Syria Comment, screens all domestic and Syria-related regional developments, comments on them, and weblinks them to third-party commentators.

The Global Week Ahead: 05.05.2008 - 12.05.2008

1) China-Japan: President Hu Jintao visists Japan
What ? Chinese state visits to Japan have always had a historic character. Notwithstanding the differences in size of the countries, it can be compared to German-French state visits. It is about two fierce enemies seeing eye to eye again. It is Hu Jintao’s first foreign visit since the start of Tibetan protests.
When? Tuesday 6^th of May 2008.
Who? Hu Jintao meets Yassuo Fukuda.
What to watch out for ? North Korea will be on the Agenda, Tibetan monks demonstration, comments on the territorial over the East China Sea gas field.
Geopolitical significance? Beijing wants to stabilize its foreign policy ahead of the Olympic games. Japan has different priorities, however, including North Korea, protection and expansion of its business interests in China, and a permanent seat at the UN.

2) Russia: Twin-headed state
What ? Medvedev is sworn in. He is the first Russian Head of State since the Soviet Union’s collapse that is not from the Communist Party, nor from the security services is sworn in
When? Wednesday 7^th of May 2008.
Who? Dimitri Medvedev, Vladimir Putin.
What to watch out for: When presidents change in Russia they usually like to take their country to war to establish their nationalist credentials. Yeltsin did it before and after his re-election. Putin did it after his elections. What about Medvedev? A war could easily be started in Georgia.
On the other hand, Medvedev represents fresh liberal blood. The tone in foreign affairs could change dramatically…for the best.
Geopolitical significance: EU gas supplies, Caucasus stability, Turkey’s stability.

3) Israel 60^th Anniversary
What ? Israel will celebrate its 60^th Birthday. For most Arab countries this will be a painful day. For the likes of Hezbollah, Iran, Al Qaeda, and Hamas, it will be unbearable to look at Israel celebrate its existence. By the same token, it will be very tempting to strike the Jewish state.
When? Hebrew Calendar, 8th of May 2008, Roman Calendar 14^th of May 2008
Who? Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, Hamas, Al Qaeda.
What to watch out for: Big headline attacks that could lead to a Middle East war, the presence or the absence of the strategic allies during the celebrations. President G.W. Bush has announced himself, but a last minute cancellation is not excluded.
Geopolitical significance: Oil prices would go through the roof. Lebanon could disintegrate into civil war. The Assad regime could be wiped away. Iran could be attacked.

4) Serbia at a crossroad
What? Serbia holds parliamentary and local elections.
When? Sunday the 11th of May 2008.
Who? DSS (Kostunica), DS (Tadic, president), Nikolic (Radicals)
What to watch out for? Any signals from the Commission on Slovakia joining the Eurozone.
Geopolitical significance: Slovakia is now first in line to join the Euro. The country has met all the eurozone criteria. A decision to delay Slovakia’s entry would therefore be entirely political and thus damaging for the efforts of other newly joined member states. A spat on slovakia would deepen the New vs Old Europe divide.

5) Eurozone: l’auto-critique
What? The EC will present an overview of the eurozone as it approaches its tenth anniversary. The report coincides with the commission’s public assessment of the euro candidates..
When? Week of the 5th of May 2008.
Who? European Commission, Belgian Prosecutor general.
What to watch out for? Any signs that Slovakia will join the Eurozone.
Geopolitical significance: Slovakia is now first in line to join the Euro. The country has met all the eurozone criteria. A decision to delay Slovakia’s entry would therefore be entirely political and thus damaging for the efforts of other newly joined member states.

The Global Week Ahead: 28 April- 2 May 2008

1) EU-Russia Partnership: When the political mosquitoes league matters

What ? EU and Russia hold talks on a strategic partnership.
When? Tuesday 29^th of April 2008.
Who? Russia, EU Commission.
What to watch out for ? Lithuania has announced that they will veto any deals with Russia in protest to Russia’s bullying tactics against Lithuania and Georgia.
Geopolitical significance: As Medvedev is about to being sworn, liberal Russia needs a concession from the West that can silence the siloviki in the Kremlin.

2) Turkey: AKP submits written defense in closure case, or maybe not!

What? AKP has to submit its defence case to the constitutional court in written. It can, however, request a three month extension.
When? Friday 2^nd of May 2008.
Who? AKP, Tayip Erdogan.
What to watch out for? Will AKP submit an extension request, or send the signal that it is ready to face the court? The court will almost certainly accept a timeline extension request if a demand comes in.
Geopolitical significance: Turkey is hugely important for the Emerging Market sentiment in the financial world.

3) Olympic torch arrives in China
What? The Olympic torch has finally arrived in China. Chinese authorities can now be relieved, they control everything. On the other side media scrutiny is set to increase, and the flame is approaching Tibet.
When? Sunday 4^th of April 2008.
Who? Chinese government.
What to watch out for ? Any signs of disturbances in Tibet.
Geopolitical significance: Human rights hick-ups could lead to China bashing, which would in turn lead reactionary nationalism in Chin, which could then harm global trade.

4) Middle East: week before the storm
What ? Next week Israel will celebrate its 60^th Birthday. For most arab countries this will be a painful day. For the likes of Hezbollah, Iran, Al Qaeda, and Hamas, it will be unbearable to look at Israel celebrate.
When? All the days leading to the 14^th of May 2008
Who? Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, Hamas, Al Qaeda.
What to watch out for: Big headline attacks that could lead to a Middle East war.
Geopolitical significance: Oil prices would go through the roof. Lebanon could disintegrate into civil war. The Assad regime could be wiped away. Iran could be attacked.

5) Russia: the first President that is not from the Communist Party, nor from the security services is sworn in
What ? Medvedev is sworn in.
When? Wednesday 7^th of May 2008.
Who? Dimitri Medvedev, Putin
What to watch out for: When presidents change in Russia they usually like to take their country to war to establish their nationalist credentials. Yeltsin did it after his re-election. Putin did it after his elections. And what will Medvedev do. A war could easily be started in Georgia.
On the other hand, Medvedev represents fresh liberal blood. The tone in foreign affairs could change dramatically…for the best.
Geopolitical significance: EU gas supplies, Caucasus stability, Turkey’s stability.

The Global Week Ahead: 21-27.04.2004

1) Iraq: Neighbours conference
What ? Kuwait is holding an Iraq's neighbour's conference.
When? Tuesday, 21.04.2008, Kuwait City.
Who? Nuri al-Maliki, Iraq's foreign Minister.
What to watch out for ? Signs that the Gulf states will write off the Iraqi debt from Saddam's time. Signal's that GCC will open embassies in Bagdad. So far GCC officials have not even travelled on state visits to Iraq, bar from the Kurdish region.
Geopolitical significance: Sunni engagement in the stabilisation of Iraq.

2) Iraq: Sadr , fight or not fight!
What ? Sadr warned the government over the weekend to stop aggressions of his militias else.....
When? Week of 21.04.2008, Bagdad.
Who? Mr Muqtadda Al-sadr and his mehdi army.
What to watch out for ? If Muqtadda Al-sadr and his mehdi army decide to take on the Iraqi government and the US army openly, hell will break over Iraq.
Geopolitical significance: Iran-US relations, US presidential elections. Recent analyses have suggested to ways of analysing the situation. One, articulated by French historian Mr. Adler, is that Sadrists are supported by the Ahmadinejad clan in Iran, while Maliki is supported by the pragmatists. An alternative view implied by is that Iran supports all shiite clans and is quite happy at seeing them tearing each other apart from now. This would look more like Syria's role in Lebanon.

3) US: Pennsylvania Primaries.
What ? Pennsylvania Primaries, Clinton must win by 10% or over to win the expectations games. Although in terms of delegates count Pennsylvania is unlikely to change much to the status quo.
When? Tuesday, 21.04.2008, USA.
Who? Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama.
What to watch out for: Clinton must win by 10% or over to win the expectations games. A clinton victory will put pressure on Obama to win in Indiana.
Geopolitical significance: The Foreign Policy style of each of them is significantly different.

4) Georgia: When will the tensions subside ?
What ? Last week Russia announced that it would establish formal links with Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhasia and South Ossetia. It amounts to a de facto recognition, and comes after a long period of Russification of the breakaway provinces.
When? Week of 21.04.2008.
Who? Mikheil Saakashvili, Valdimir Putin.
What to watch out for: Tensions could escalate in the coming weeks as Putin is likely to want to send a message to his hardliners that he is not letting them down, while at the same time give an implicit warning to Ukraine of what could happen if they were to act in a way that is perceived as hostile.
Geopolitical significance: Kosovo, lowers the temperature of an other European frozen conflict, NATO expansions could be at risk or boosted depending on how one looks at it.

5) Zimbabwe: Anything can happen!
What ? Refusing apparent defeat, President Mugabe has ordered a recount of votes, while cracking down on dissent. Suffering from hyperinflation the country is collapsing.
When? from now until Mugabe leaves power.
Who? President Mugabe (ZANU-PF), Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai (MDC).
What to watch out for: Humanitarian Disaster.
Geopolitical significance: The moral credibility of the African liberation movements such as Zanu PF and, most crucially, ANC is at stake. A failure would turn the clock backwards on the African continent and signal that the despotic regimes are to be tolerated again.

The Global Week Ahead: 14.04-21.04.2008

1) Ireland Referendum: Merkel campaigns in Ireland
What ? Angela Merkel campaigns for the Referendum on the European reform treaty in Ireland. The poll is to be held on the 12.06.2008.
When? Monday, 14.04.2008, Dublin.
Who? Angela Merkel (German Chancellor), and Bertie Ahern will host her (although he is stepping down).
What to watch out for ? History, it is the first time a foreign leader is campaigning for a EU referendum of such symbolic importance, since the Maastricht Treaty.
Geopolitical significance: EU-focused

2) Italy 2 different dimensions: Berlusconi vs Veltroni, status quo vs stability!
What ? Parliamentary (630 seats, party lists+ proportional), Senate (315 seats, party-lists +proportional), and local elections.
When? Elections were on 13-14.04.2008, results due on 14.04.2008, 15:00.
Who? Mr Berlusconi: People Freedom Party, Mr. Veltroni: New Democrats
What to watch out for ? Any clear majority both in the Parliament as in the Senate. Anything short of that will be a harbinger of political instability and cast doom on Italy’s enormous economic problems. Why not a victory of Veltroni. The latter would be a sign the Italian voters are hungry for stability and respectability vs. show and poor track-record.
Geopolitical significance: EU eco stability, maturing of the “sick man of Europe”

3) Middle East Talks
What ? The Quartet meets in Amman, Jordan.
When? Thursday 17^th of April 2008, Amman.
Who? Level of meeting is not clear yet. Lookout of ministerial tours.
What to watch out for: Level of delegations, position towards Hamas.
Geopolitical significance: Important follow-up to Indianapolis.

4) Jimmy Carter meets Hamas leader in Damascus
What ? Ex President Jimmy Carter is expected to meet Khaled Meshaal in Damascus.
When? Friday 18^th of April 2008, Damascus.
Who? Jimmy Carter, Khaled Meshaal, Bashar El-Assad..
What to watch out for: Will the meeting go ahead ? What will be the US candidates’ position towards the visit ? Will foreign leaders use the visit as an ice-breaker opening the way to discussion with Hamas ?
Geopolitical significance: Important for the Middle East process..

5) Papal visit to the US
What ? Pope Benedict visits the US for the first time since he became Pope
When? Week of 14 ^th –21^st of April 2008, USA.
Who? Pope Benedict XVI, George Bush.
What to watch out for: The pope has turned increasingly open to inter-religious dialogue. King Abdullah visited him several months ago, and they both got on very well together. Saudi Arabia has since then signaled willingness to sponsor inter-religious dialogue and narrow the mentality gap. The pope is likely to speak about it when he meets Bush and the Jewish lobby. Benedict XVI might venture on a political comment towards Palestine.
Geopolitical significance: minor.

Letter to Barack Obama: 09.03.2008

Dear Barack,

The time is ripe for a few changes to your campaign strategy. If you are out of ideas here is what I recommend you do ASAP.

#1. CHANGE, stick to the message but explain why “your opponent is more of the same”. Change is the key topic of your campaign and ultimately that is the reason you can win. In theory this campaign theme is fundamentally rock-solid. Over 70% of Americans disapprove of the way their country is heading. That suggests they want change. Nevertheless, it is now time for you to shift away from your “cynics cum Washington politics” line, which has yielded what it could already, and adopt a more specific rhetoric of why your opponent is more of the same. E.g.: remind them that the IT bubble grew under B. Clinton, that Bill Clinton was the embodiment of hypocrisy in the White House. A notch more aggressive, run an add with original footages of Bill and Hillary in the White House and ask the American people if they deserve another run of the same, Hillary’s ultimate weak spot is the “dynasty thing”; exploit it. By the same token, do not hesitate to link the Clinton dynasty with the Bush dynasty and invite the voters to think about the consequences. Finally, if all of it fails, you can always make the argument that the Clinton administration has failed to see the national security threats early enough (which is true, after all 9/11 barely came 9 months into Bush’s presidency the security issues pre-dated his arrival).

#2. The ECONOMY, link it to the change message in more details: let us face it, the US economy is in disarray. You can point at the unemployment, the house prices, the infrastructure, the addiction to energy imports, the inflation, and the recession. You should not find it all too difficult to tell the voters what you plan to do about it and why your opponents are partially responsible for the historic crisis of the US economy. Hillary Clinton voted for the war, and by implication for its costs. Bill has failed to grasp the full consequences of the free trade agreements he passed, which have in due time exacerbated the US current account balance.

#3. NATIONAL SECURITY and FOREIGN AFFAIRS EXPERIENCE, make a trip around the world after Mississippi. On national security, pundits are fast to note that you have no experience and that you might therefore not be the best candidate. The problem here is that they have a point. You will always be something of an unknown quantity, but so are your opponents, though to a lesser extent. But you can demonstrate your argument of “experience is nothing without judgment” by going on a world tour. TAKE YOUR PLANE AND GO TO EUROPE, IRAK, AFGHANISTAN, and as many American military bases as you can during a tour around the world. You will have 5 weeks after Mississippi, use them to go abroad and look and act super presidential. Meet Manuel Barroso in Brussels, Angela Merkel in Germany, Abdullah Gul in Turkey. Stop-over in Bagdad, and then go to Amman, Nairobi (shake hands with Kibaki and Odinga, talk peace and reconciliation), and Kabul, continue to Beijing and get Hu Jintao to tour you around the Olympic city (tell him how nice it is, but how important it is to re-balance the economic relationship between both countries), continue to Indonesia and the Philippines were you can talk tough about Islamic fundamentalists and the fight on terror. Make sure that all the media and appearance details are right, make sure that you get some photo-opps with David Petraeus and the “boys”, make sure you look super-capable of handling national security issues. Nurture allies, and chastise enemies. Talk tough on Iran, sweet on Israel, but do it using reasonable non-dogmatic arguments. Show how different you are by shaping the debate outside the manicheist frame of Bush. Back to the US. Give Hillary a beating: ask her where is her record on Rwanda, Somalia, and Al Qaeda.

#4. Live the change: you have promised change, time has come to demonstrate you can do it. Engineer situations where you can demonstrate how it will be like when you will be president (the foreign trip is one, go to disaster/accident scenes, maybe a special add, etc…). Just make sure that your actions do never deviate from your message of change.

Give me a call if you want to discuss

polibel

The Global Week Ahead: 10.03.2008

1) Hungary: The fall-out from the referendum could be turbulent
What ? Referendum on 3 aspects of the fiscal austerity plan of the government took place on 09.03. The referendum was forced onto the government by the opposition in a bid to oust the Prime Minisiter from office. The days until the national day, on the 15.03, and maybe beyond are likely to turn violent as the opposition celebrates its victory, and unleashes its radical elements on the streets of Budapest.
When? Monday, 10 March to Saturday 15 March 2008, Budapest.
Who? MSZP - Ferenc Gyurczanny (Socialist PM), Fidesz - Viktor Orban (right cum extreme-right opposition leader).
What to watch out for ? 1) turnout. if above 30% the likelihood of the referendum being binding will increase significantly, 2) Anything less than a binding referendum victory for the opposition on all three questions will be perceived as a defeat by Fidesz. 3) A defeat with more than 60% participation would be very damaging to the PM.4) Noise from the MSZP party following the results announcement. Although unlikely, an internal party coup on PM Gyurczanny remains a remote possibility.
Geopolitical significance: Not much geopolitically. But a very negative referendum for the government, coupled with protests on the street will send the HUF to hell. the currency could weaken dramatically this week.
Developing story, links: financial markets

2) Urkaine: EU-Ukraine troika, will the enhanced FTA fly?
What ? Ukraine's Prime Minister will be in Brussel to attend the regular EU-Ukraine Troika. This comes at time of relative political stability in Ukraine, and barely 2 months after Ukraine's WTO membership announcement.
When? Tuesday 11.03.2008.
Who? Yulia Timoshenko (PM of Ukraine), Manuel Barroso (EU commission), Slovenian Prime Minister, and French representative.
What to watch out for? 1) Any announcement on the enhanced FTA, 2) Hints of a timeline for the WTO ratification process, 3) EU and Ukrainian position on Rosukrenergo and the gas transit regime to the EU.
Geopolitical Significance: Political relations with Ukraine are always touchy because of Russia. But when the EU starts talking about "enhanced FTA", while Russia is still nowhere on its desire to sign a strategic partnership agreement with the EU could lead to frictions between Moscow and the EU, as well as between Moscow and Kiev.
Developing story, links: Kosovo recognition on behalf of Ukraine, NATO M.A.P.,

3) US: Mississippi Democratic Primaries!
What ? 33 Democratic delegates are at stake in the state of Mississippi. Barack Obama stands a strong chance to win in Mississipi, where ca 30% of the population is black. A strong victory in Mississipi would be essential for Obama psychological and arithmetic momentum. At present he leads in the delegate count by 123 delegates (Real Clear Politics), but has suffered defeats in Texas and Ohio, two big states, on the 04.03 .
When? Week of the 18.02.2008
Who? Students in Turkish Universities
What to watch out for? 1) Campus protests against or for the headscarf ban, 2) Any evidence that .
Geopolitical significance? none others that it could trigger a market sell-off as foreign investors have sofar resisted from scaring from Turkey amid gloomy global sentiments.
Developing story, links:

4) Serbia: Early elections are confirmed !
What ? On Saturday 08.03.2008 Prime Minister Kostunica (DSS), announced the dissolution of the government over its inability to agree on the parliamentary resolution of the Radical Party (SRS) on Kosovo. Early elections have been announced for the 11.05.2008.
When? Week of the 10.03.2008
Who? Boris Tadic (President, DS), Kostunica (DSS), Timoslav Nikolic (SRS).
What to watch out for? 1) Public Opinion Polls, 2) Political rallies that turn violent.
Geopolitical significance? Critical. Kostunica is likely to chart a pro-Russian path to his electorate. Tadic will propose a pro-EU path. The catastrophy scenario would be a victory of SRS.
Developing story, links: Kosovo, NATO accession of Macedonia and Albania.

5) Europe: Fourth anniversary of the Madrid bombing
What ? on 11.03.2004 a series of coordinated Al Qaeda bombs on Madrid's trains killed 191 people and left over 1500 people injured. Al Qaeda has a demonstrated tendency to perpetrate new attacks on anniversaries of older ones.
When? 11.03.2008
Who? Al Qaeda.
What to watch out for? 1) Any attack on US interests could influence the presidential election campaign, 2) an attack on Dutch interests in retaliation for Geert Wilders announced Fitna movie.
Geopolitical significance? It could disqualify Turkey's EU accession prospects for a while, it would excerbate intercultural tensions in many european cities, it could affect the US presidential elections.

5) Iran: Parliamentary elections
What ? Two groups are locked in a fierce political battle. On one hand are the conservatives supported by some reformists (Rafsanjani, Khatami). On the other hand are the radicals with strong links to the Revolutionary guards (Ahmadinejad). The elections comes against a background of rampant inflation, shortages, and heavy handed politics from the presidential party. A clean defeat of the presidential party has been precluded by the government's intervention in the opposition candidates vetting process.
When? 14.03.2008
Who? .
What to watch out for? 1) a defeat by the presidential party, 2) anti-Ahmadinejad comments from Khamenei 3) Massive demonstrations in Iran.
Geopolitical significance? It is a questions of signals to the West. Bearing in mind that the West is intently concerned about Iran's nuclear stance, as well as its increasingly belligerent rethoric. A victory of Ahmadinejad's party, without any condmenation or criticism from Khamenei would amount to implicit support of Ahmadinejad current policies. The West would then conclude that they stand on their own to stop a nuclear, anti-semite Iran with all the dire consequences that such reasoning would imply. If on the opposite, Ahmadinejad is dealt a relative defeat and Kahmenei distances himself from him, the signal would be that things are changing in Iran. The West would then conclude that time is on their side.
Developing story, links: Lebanon, Persian Gulf, Iraq, Israel