1) EU-Russia Partnership: When the political mosquitoes league matters What ? EU and Russia hold talks on a strategic partnership.
When? Tuesday 29th of April 2008.
Who? Russia, EU Commission.
What to watch out for ? Lithuania has announced that they will veto any deals with Russia in protest to Russia’s bullying tactics against Lithuania and Georgia.
Geopolitical significance: As Medvedev is about to being sworn, liberal Russia needs a concession from the West that can silence the siloviki in the Kremlin.
2) Turkey: AKP submits written defense in closure case, or maybe not!
What? AKP has to submit its defence case to the constitutional court in written. It can, however, request a three month extension.
When? Friday 2nd of May 2008.
Who? AKP, Tayip Erdogan.
What to watch out for? Will AKP submit an extension request, or send the signal that it is ready to face the court? The court will almost certainly accept a timeline extension request if a demand comes in.
Geopolitical significance: Turkey is hugely important for the Emerging Market sentiment in the financial world.
3) Olympic torch arrives in China
What? The Olympic torch has finally arrived in China. Chinese authorities can now be relieved, they control everything. On the other side media scrutiny is set to increase, and the flame is approaching Tibet.
When? Sunday 4th of April 2008.
Who? Chinese government.
What to watch out for ? Any signs of disturbances in Tibet.
Geopolitical significance: Human rights hick-ups could lead to China bashing, which would in turn lead reactionary nationalism in Chin, which could then harm global trade.
4) Middle East: week before the storm
What ? Next week Israel will celebrate its 60th Birthday. For most arab countries this will be a painful day. For the likes of Hezbollah, Iran, Al Qaeda, and Hamas, it will be unbearable to look at Israel celebrate.
When? All the days leading to the 14th of May 2008
Who? Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, Hamas, Al Qaeda.
What to watch out for: Big headline attacks that could lead to a Middle East war.
Geopolitical significance: Oil prices would go through the roof. Lebanon could disintegrate into civil war. The Assad regime could be wiped away. Iran could be attacked.
5) Russia: the first President that is not from the Communist Party, nor from the security services is sworn in
What ? Medvedev is sworn in.
When? Wednesday 7th of May 2008.
Who? Dimitri Medvedev, Putin
What to watch out for: When presidents change in Russia they usually like to take their country to war to establish their nationalist credentials. Yeltsin did it after his re-election. Putin did it after his elections. And what will Medvedev do. A war could easily be started in Georgia.
On the other hand, Medvedev represents fresh liberal blood. The tone in foreign affairs could change dramatically…for the best.
Geopolitical significance: EU gas supplies, Caucasus stability, Turkey’s stability.
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