1)
What ? Kuwait is holding an Iraq's neighbour's conference.
When? Tuesday, 21.04.2008,
Who? Nuri al-Maliki, Iraq's foreign Minister.
What to watch out for ? Signs that the Gulf states will write off the Iraqi debt from Saddam's time. Signal's that GCC will open embassies in Bagdad. So far GCC officials have not even travelled on state visits to Iraq, bar from the Kurdish region.
Geopolitical significance: Sunni engagement in the stabilisation of Iraq.
2) Iraq: Sadr , fight or not fight!
What ? Sadr warned the government over the weekend to stop aggressions of his militias else.....
When? Week of 21.04.2008, Bagdad.
Who? Mr Muqtadda Al-sadr and his mehdi army.
What to watch out for ? If Muqtadda Al-sadr and his mehdi army decide to take on the Iraqi government and the US army openly, hell will break over Iraq.
Geopolitical significance: Iran-US relations, US presidential elections. Recent analyses have suggested to ways of analysing the situation. One, articulated by French historian Mr. Adler, is that Sadrists are supported by the Ahmadinejad clan in Iran, while Maliki is supported by the pragmatists. An alternative view implied by is that Iran supports all shiite clans and is quite happy at seeing them tearing each other apart from now. This would look more like Syria's role in Lebanon.
What ? Pennsylvania Primaries, Clinton must win by 10% or over to win the expectations games. Although in terms of delegates count Pennsylvania is unlikely to change much to the status quo.
When? Tuesday, 21.04.2008, USA
Who? Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama.
What to watch out for: Clinton must win by 10% or over to win the expectations games. A clinton victory will put pressure on Obama to win in Indiana.
Geopolitical significance: The Foreign Policy style of each of them is significantly different.
4) Georgia: When will the tensions subside ?
What ? Last week Russia announced that it would establish formal links with Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhasia and South Ossetia. It amounts to a de facto recognition, and comes after a long period of Russification of the breakaway provinces.
When? Week of 21.04.2008.
Who? Mikheil Saakashvili, Valdimir Putin.
What to watch out for: Tensions could escalate in the coming weeks as Putin is likely to want to send a message to his hardliners that he is not letting them down, while at the same time give an implicit warning to Ukraine of what could happen if they were to act in a way that is perceived as hostile.
Geopolitical significance: Kosovo, lowers the temperature of an other European frozen conflict, NATO expansions could be at risk or boosted depending on how one looks at it.
5) Zimbabwe: Anything can happen!
What ? Refusing apparent defeat, President Mugabe has ordered a recount of votes, while cracking down on dissent. Suffering from hyperinflation the country is collapsing.
When? from now until Mugabe leaves power.
Who? President Mugabe (ZANU-PF), Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai (MDC).
What to watch out for: Humanitarian Disaster.
Geopolitical significance: The moral credibility of the African liberation movements such as Zanu PF and, most crucially, ANC is at stake. A failure would turn the clock backwards on the African continent and signal that the despotic regimes are to be tolerated again.
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