The Global Week Ahead: 14.04-21.04.2008

1) Ireland Referendum: Merkel campaigns in Ireland
What ? Angela Merkel campaigns for the Referendum on the European reform treaty in Ireland. The poll is to be held on the 12.06.2008.
When? Monday, 14.04.2008, Dublin.
Who? Angela Merkel (German Chancellor), and Bertie Ahern will host her (although he is stepping down).
What to watch out for ? History, it is the first time a foreign leader is campaigning for a EU referendum of such symbolic importance, since the Maastricht Treaty.
Geopolitical significance: EU-focused

2) Italy 2 different dimensions: Berlusconi vs Veltroni, status quo vs stability!
What ? Parliamentary (630 seats, party lists+ proportional), Senate (315 seats, party-lists +proportional), and local elections.
When? Elections were on 13-14.04.2008, results due on 14.04.2008, 15:00.
Who? Mr Berlusconi: People Freedom Party, Mr. Veltroni: New Democrats
What to watch out for ? Any clear majority both in the Parliament as in the Senate. Anything short of that will be a harbinger of political instability and cast doom on Italy’s enormous economic problems. Why not a victory of Veltroni. The latter would be a sign the Italian voters are hungry for stability and respectability vs. show and poor track-record.
Geopolitical significance: EU eco stability, maturing of the “sick man of Europe”

3) Middle East Talks
What ? The Quartet meets in Amman, Jordan.
When? Thursday 17^th of April 2008, Amman.
Who? Level of meeting is not clear yet. Lookout of ministerial tours.
What to watch out for: Level of delegations, position towards Hamas.
Geopolitical significance: Important follow-up to Indianapolis.

4) Jimmy Carter meets Hamas leader in Damascus
What ? Ex President Jimmy Carter is expected to meet Khaled Meshaal in Damascus.
When? Friday 18^th of April 2008, Damascus.
Who? Jimmy Carter, Khaled Meshaal, Bashar El-Assad..
What to watch out for: Will the meeting go ahead ? What will be the US candidates’ position towards the visit ? Will foreign leaders use the visit as an ice-breaker opening the way to discussion with Hamas ?
Geopolitical significance: Important for the Middle East process..

5) Papal visit to the US
What ? Pope Benedict visits the US for the first time since he became Pope
When? Week of 14 ^th –21^st of April 2008, USA.
Who? Pope Benedict XVI, George Bush.
What to watch out for: The pope has turned increasingly open to inter-religious dialogue. King Abdullah visited him several months ago, and they both got on very well together. Saudi Arabia has since then signaled willingness to sponsor inter-religious dialogue and narrow the mentality gap. The pope is likely to speak about it when he meets Bush and the Jewish lobby. Benedict XVI might venture on a political comment towards Palestine.
Geopolitical significance: minor.