The Global Week Ahead: 10th-17th of November 2008

1) USA: Barack Obama’s Cabinet
What ? Presidents-elect usually nominate key-cabinet appointment before they take office. With Rahm Emmanuel’s appointment only 2 days after the elections, Obama is signaling that his intent is to act swiftly and decisively.

When? Week of the 10^th of November 2008.

Who? Barack Obama.

What to watch out for? Appointments to watch for are: National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense (top candidate: Robert Gates), Secretary of State (top candidate: Bill Richardson), Secretary of the Treasury. Will McCain get a job as well in one of the intelligence agencies ?

Geopolitical significance? The appointments will set the tone in all policy matters, in particular economic and foreign policy.

2) Global Financial Crisis: G20 summit
What ? President Bush has called a G20 summit in Washington to discuss a global response to the financial crisis. The summit will include non-OECD countries such as China, Brazil, India, and Russia.

When? Sunday 14^th of November.
Who? Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The European Union is also a member, represented by the rotating Council presidency and the European Central Bank..
What to watch out for: Who will attend from Obama’s team ? Whether any concrete promises will be made.

Geopolitical significance: It is the first time that Emerging Market Countries are brought into the crisis room to discuss a solution. In a way, it signals a new era in the balance of power between the OECD-countries and the Emerging-countries.

3) Iran: A window of opportunity has opened for Israel

What ? It has long been argued that a window of opportunity to strike Iran would open for Israel between the US elections and Inauguration day on the 20^th of January 2009. The argument is that Israel would benefit from the incumbent’s president support without having to convince the new occupant to the White House.

When? 4^th of November 2008 – 19^th of January 2009.
Who? Iran (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Khamenei) and Israel (Ehoud Olmert, Dagan)
What to watch out for: A military operation inside Iran’s territory.

Geopolitical significance: The geopolitical domino effects are potentially powerful and will have a regional impact from Lebanon to Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.