The Global Week Ahead: 17th of November 2008

1) Pakistan: Friends of Pakistan Summit
What ? A summit of countries allied to Pakistan is to be held in Abu Dhabi. The summit is expected to offer economic and political support.

When? Monday the 17^th of November 2008.

Who? Ali Zardari, China, US, EU, Germany, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Britain, France, Canada, Turkey, Australia.

What to watch out for? Significant and immediate economic aid to the tune of $10bn.

Geopolitical significance? Pakistan is a nuclear power, with a homegrown Islamic insurgency, and serious political instability. With its Foreign Reserves declining fast, it is quickly heading to a balance of payment crisis. A full-blown balance of payment crisis would lead to a technical bankruptcy, which would potentially turn Pakistan into a failed state in which Islamist are the only alternative.

2) France: Opposition elects leader

What ? The socialist party (PS) of France is to elect a new leader to replace Francois Hollande, who decided to resign after 11 years. The election follows a party Congress that was held in Reims on the 14^th-15^th-16^th of November 2008. The congress was marred by acrimonious rivalries and public spats between the tenors of the party. Four factions have emerged from the congress: Bertrand Delanoe, Benoit Hamon, Segolene Royal, Martine Aubry.

When? Thursday 20^th of November.
Who? It is expected that there will be three candidates running: Benoit Hamon (could retract in favour of Aubry), Ségolène Royal, Martine Aubry.
What to watch out for: in a three-way contest Ségolène Royal is likely to win, but if Hamon retracts in favour of Martine Aubry, a very tight run-off would be on the cards.

Geopolitical significance: The leadership election of the PS will be crucial for determining the socio-political pressure that the opposition will place on Nicolas Sarkozy. The only candidate representing the center is Ségolène Royal. All others support a more radical social agenda.

3) USA: Lame-duck Congress Session

What ? Nancy Pelosi, the house leader, called for a lame duck session for this week on the 11^th of November. Lame duck sessions of the U.S. Congress happen in even numbered years when Congress has to reconvene following the November general election to take care of unfinished legislation. Some lawmakers who return for this session lost their bids for reelection and will not be in the next Congress. Hence, they are informally called "lame duck" members participating in a "lame duck" session.

When? Week of the 17^th of November 2008.
Who? Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Tom Daschle, Harry Reid, and other congressional leader.
What to watch out for: a $25bn aid package for Ford and GM. Whether Obama will participate and come to the Hill.

Geopolitical significance: failure to pass legislation in support of Ford and GM, could lead to their bankruptcy by year-end, and trigger a global equity sell-off of considerable magnitude.

5) Iraq: Security Pact needs Parliament Approval

What ? The US and the Iraqi government have come to terms on a Security Pact that would allow US forces to stay beyond the 31^st of December 2008. The cabinet voted 27 against 13 in favour of the pact. Now, parliament needs to vote on it before it can be ratified by the President.

When? Week of the 17^th of November.
Who? Iraqi Parliament, Iran, Grand Ayathollah Ali Al-Sistani.
What to watch out for: a quick approval, and the position of Muqtada al-Sadr.

Geopolitical significance: This pact will seal the mid-term presence of US troops in Iraq, and serve as a guarantee for a modicum of political stability in Iraq for the next 12 months.

6) Syria: David Milliband visits Syria

What ? David Milliband, Foreign Minister of the UK, is set to pay an official visit to Syria. This is the first UK visit since the Iraq war but it comes after a similar visit by Sakozy. The visit confirms Syria’s return to the international community. A development which will be of serious concerns for Iran.

When? Tuesday the 20^th of November 2008.
Who? David Milliband, Hafez El-Assad.
What to watch out for: a renewed Syrian pledge for ambassador exchange with Lebanon, a disavowal of Hamas, some form of closer cooperation.

Geopolitical significance: Things rarely develop in a radical fashion in Damascus. And so is its rapprochement with the international community. David Milliband’s visit is a key step in confirming Syria’s engagement. Such an engagement would de facto weaken the Syrian-Iranian alliance. Moreover, this comes at a time when Iran is experiencing serious economic woes.

7) Iran: A window of opportunity has opened for Israel

What ? It has long been argued that a window of opportunity to strike Iran would open for Israel between the US elections and Inauguration day on the 20^th of January 2009. The argument is that Israel would benefit from the incumbent’s president support without having to convince the new occupant to the White House.

When? 4^th of November 2008 – 19^th of January 2009.
Who? Iran (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Khamenei) and Israel (Ehoud Olmert, Dagan)
What to watch out for: A military operation inside Iran’s territory.

Geopolitical significance: The geopolitical domino effects are potentially powerful and will have a regional impact from Lebanon to Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.