What ? Referendum on 3 aspects of the fiscal austerity plan of the government took place on 09.03. The referendum was forced onto the government by the opposition in a bid to oust the Prime Minisiter from office. The days until the national day, on the 15.03, and maybe beyond are likely to turn violent as the opposition celebrates its victory, and unleashes its radical elements on the streets of Budapest.
When? Monday, 10 March to Saturday 15 March 2008,
Who? MSZP - Ferenc Gyurczanny (Socialist PM), Fidesz - Viktor Orban (right cum extreme-right opposition leader).
What to watch out for ? 1) turnout. if above 30% the likelihood of the referendum being binding will increase significantly, 2) Anything less than a binding referendum victory for the opposition on all three questions will be perceived as a defeat by Fidesz. 3) A defeat with more than 60% participation would be very damaging to the PM.4) Noise from the MSZP party following the results announcement. Although unlikely, an internal party coup on PM Gyurczanny remains a remote possibility.
Geopolitical significance: Not much geopolitically. But a very negative referendum for the government, coupled with protests on the street will send the HUF to hell. the currency could weaken dramatically this week.
Developing story, links: financial markets
2) Urkaine: EU-Ukraine troika, will the enhanced FTA fly?
What ? Ukraine's Prime Minister will be in Brussel to attend the regular EU-Ukraine Troika. This comes at time of relative political stability in Ukraine, and barely 2 months after Ukraine's WTO membership announcement.
When? Tuesday 11.03.2008.
Who? Yulia Timoshenko (PM of Ukraine), Manuel Barroso (EU commission), Slovenian Prime Minister, and French representative.
What to watch out for? 1) Any announcement on the enhanced FTA, 2) Hints of a timeline for the WTO ratification process, 3) EU and Ukrainian position on Rosukrenergo and the gas transit regime to the EU.
Geopolitical Significance: Political relations with Ukraine are always touchy because of Russia. But when the EU starts talking about "enhanced FTA", while Russia is still nowhere on its desire to sign a strategic partnership agreement with the EU could lead to frictions between Moscow and the EU, as well as between Moscow and Kiev.
Developing story, links: Kosovo recognition on behalf of Ukraine, NATO M.A.P.,
3) US: Mississippi Democratic Primaries!
What ? 33 Democratic delegates are at stake in the state of Mississippi. Barack Obama stands a strong chance to win in Mississipi, where ca 30% of the population is black. A strong victory in Mississipi would be essential for Obama psychological and arithmetic momentum. At present he leads in the delegate count by 123 delegates (Real Clear Politics), but has suffered defeats in Texas and Ohio, two big states, on the 04.03 .
When? Week of the 18.02.2008
Who? Students in Turkish Universities
What to watch out for? 1) Campus protests against or for the headscarf ban, 2) Any evidence that .
Geopolitical significance? none others that it could trigger a market sell-off as foreign investors have sofar resisted from scaring from Turkey amid gloomy global sentiments.
Developing story, links:
4) Serbia: Early elections are confirmed !
What ? On Saturday 08.03.2008 Prime Minister Kostunica (DSS), announced the dissolution of the government over its inability to agree on the parliamentary resolution of the Radical Party (SRS) on Kosovo. Early elections have been announced for the 11.05.2008.
When? Week of the 10.03.2008
Who? Boris Tadic (President, DS), Kostunica (DSS), Timoslav Nikolic (SRS).
What to watch out for? 1) Public Opinion Polls, 2) Political rallies that turn violent.
Geopolitical significance? Critical. Kostunica is likely to chart a pro-Russian path to his electorate. Tadic will propose a pro-EU path. The catastrophy scenario would be a victory of SRS.
Developing story, links: Kosovo, NATO accession of Macedonia and Albania.
5) Europe: Fourth anniversary of the Madrid bombing
What ? on 11.03.2004 a series of coordinated Al Qaeda bombs on Madrid's trains killed 191 people and left over 1500 people injured. Al Qaeda has a demonstrated tendency to perpetrate new attacks on anniversaries of older ones.
When? 11.03.2008
Who? Al Qaeda.
What to watch out for? 1) Any attack on US interests could influence the presidential election campaign, 2) an attack on Dutch interests in retaliation for Geert Wilders announced Fitna movie.
Geopolitical significance? It could disqualify Turkey's EU accession prospects for a while, it would excerbate intercultural tensions in many european cities, it could affect the US presidential elections.
5) Iran: Parliamentary elections
What ? Two groups are locked in a fierce political battle. On one hand are the conservatives supported by some reformists (Rafsanjani, Khatami). On the other hand are the radicals with strong links to the Revolutionary guards (Ahmadinejad). The elections comes against a background of rampant inflation, shortages, and heavy handed politics from the presidential party. A clean defeat of the presidential party has been precluded by the government's intervention in the opposition candidates vetting process.
When? 14.03.2008
Who? .
What to watch out for? 1) a defeat by the presidential party, 2) anti-Ahmadinejad comments from Khamenei 3) Massive demonstrations in Iran.
Geopolitical significance? It is a questions of signals to the West. Bearing in mind that the West is intently concerned about Iran's nuclear stance, as well as its increasingly belligerent rethoric. A victory of Ahmadinejad's party, without any condmenation or criticism from Khamenei would amount to implicit support of Ahmadinejad current policies. The West would then conclude that they stand on their own to stop a nuclear, anti-semite Iran with all the dire consequences that such reasoning would imply. If on the opposite, Ahmadinejad is dealt a relative defeat and Kahmenei distances himself from him, the signal would be that things are changing in Iran. The West would then conclude that time is on their side.
Developing story, links: Lebanon, Persian Gulf, Iraq, Israel
No comments:
Post a Comment