What ? 80 mln. Pakistanis will elect 342 parliamentarian to the national assembly.
When? Monday, 18 February 2008,
Who? PPP (Asif Zadari), PML-Q (Nawaz Sharif), PML-M (Musharraf).
What to watch out for ? 1) any signs of elections rigging, 2) the results of the PPP in Punjab and Sindh, 3) PML-M capacity to remain in power.
Geopolitical significance: Both the PPP and the PML-Q have announced that they would impeach Musharraf once in control of the national assembly. Stability in the nuclear-armed state will depend on whether the electorate perceives the elections as rigged, and on the personality and program of the next Prime Minister (i.e. majority leader).
Any serious mass protests or assassination campaign could trigger a chain reaction that would fuel ethnic violence along tribal and religious lines throughout Pakistan. At this stage only the army could restore order.
Developing story, links:
2) Kosovo: What will happen to Mitrovica, and to Serbia's EU convergence process?
What ? Kosovo has declared independence. The Serbian enclave of Mitrovica has now a one-off opportunity to accept its faith, fight, or break away from Kosovo. In Belgrade politicians will find themselves in the uncomfortable situation of having to posture proudly in defence of Serbia without rupturing vital relations with the EU.
When? Week of the 18.02.2008
Who? Boris Tadic, Kostunica, Serbs of Kosovo
What to watch out for? 1) Ethnic violence in Kosovo, 2) Street protests in Belgrade, 3) Any inflammatory speeches from Serbian Nationalists.
Geopolitical significance? Kosovo's declaration of Independence comes two weeks after a narrow electoral run-off in serbia's presidential elections, which has effectively squeezed out the party of the somewhat Eurosceptic Prime Minister. While the President and the Prime Minister are now showing a united front against Kosovo's independence, divisions are likely to emerge once Serbians will have come to term with the reality, and a policy vision will be required.
Russia's role as Serbia's main ally is fraught with negative consequences for countries such as Georgia and Transdniestria.
If ethnic violence erupts on the ground in Kosovo the odds of a domino effect across the region will increase significantly. Hungarians in the Vojvodina, Serbs in Respublika Serbska, are likely to be the first to fall victims from any Kosovo violence. The last thing anybody wants are images of fleeing serbs.
The recognition game will also produce interesting geopolitics. Who will be first to recognise Albania ? Will Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan be among the first ones ?
Developing story, links:
3) Turkey: Turkish University reopen for the second semester...without headscarfs!
What ? The Turkish Parliament has passed a constitutional amendment allowing students to wear a headscarf at University. The amendment will become law once President Gul has signed it.
When? Week of the 18.02.2008
Who? Students in Turkish Universities
What to watch out for? 1) Campus protests against or for the headscarf ban, 2) Any evidence that .
Geopolitical significance? none others that it could trigger a market sell-off as foreign investors have sofar resisted from scaring from Turkey amid gloomy global sentiments.
Developing story, links:
4) Lebanon: On the brink of civil war !
What ? politically tainted street fights have been on the increase over the last 10 days, while senior politicians fail to react and reign over their rank and files the risks are high that the situation could slip out of control. The main underlying issue has been the inability of the Lebanese parliament to elect a new president. The Presidency having been kept vacant for three months.
When? Week of the 18.02.2008
Who? clashing mobs of Shiite and Sunni youth.
What to watch out for? 1) increase in mobs fight, 2) fiery speeches of political elders.
Geopolitical significance? A serious Sunni-Shiite clash would have dangerous repercussions across the region. Especially in Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Developing story, links:
5) Cyprus: reunification is in the bag !
What ? The first round of the presidential elections has edged-out the incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos. Mr Papadopoulos is infamous for his political u-turn vis a vis the Annan Plan's for the island's reunification. The alternative candidates, Mr Kasoulides and Mr Christofias (Communist) have both campaigned on a platform that was favourable to reunification. The second round of the Presidential elections will take place on Sunday.
When? 24.02.2008
Who? Mr kasoulides, Christofias, Erdogan.
What to watch out for? 1) Any campaign pledge with regards to independence, 2) Turkish reactions to the defeat of the jurassic president of Greek Cyprus.
Geopolitical significance? serious progress on the island reunification front would bolster Turkey's accession progress, allow Turkey to recognise Cypriot boats entering Turkish ports and therefore unblock the Chapter's negotiations. Furthermore, Cyprus' reunification would once and for all break the back of the Turkish army extralegal power channels, whose reliance on the informal Island's economy and mafia is notorious. In Cyprus there is one Turkish soldier for every fourth Turkish Cypriot inhabitant.
No comments:
Post a Comment