The Global Week Ahead: 04.02.2008

1) Serbia-Balkans: Tadic, Presivent = Kosovo Independent on the 7th of February ?
What ? At the time of writing Boris Tadic (DS) seemed to have narrowly won the presidential elections with 50,9 %. Will Nikolic stick to his words and respect the democratic results as he seemed to do when he conceded defeat? What will Kostunica's official statement be (he refused to endorse Tadic although he is in coalition with him) ? With 50% of Serbia split on Kosovo what will the EU now do ? Will they sign the promised deal on the 4th of February ? Will Kosovo declare its independence on the 7th as was rumored by European diplomats last week? And how will the serbian markets react to Tadic's narrow victory ?
When? Monday, 04 February 2008, Belgrade: Official results and EU deal. 07 February: Kosovo.
Who? Boris Tadic, Kostunica, Temislav Nikolic.
What to watch out for ? Any contest of the election results? Kostunica's comment on Tadic' victory ? Serbian market reaction ? The EU signature of the Serbian trade and visa deal ? Kosovo's declaration of independence?
Geopolitical significance: The EU's candidate, won the Serbian presidential elections though with a very narrow margin. The country is split in two on the main issue: A europhile serbia with a moderate president on Kosovo, or a staunchly nationalist serbia with a rethorically aggressive president on Kosovo! The EU is in fact in a difficult position: its main ally is publicly arguing against Kosovo's independence and demanding for a UN solution (which is unobtainable). An aggressive EU move in favor of Kosovo's independence would be a slap in the face of their ally. Prolonged procrastinations would however irritate the Kosovars to dangerous levels. Their choice will be stability vs. fidelity! The EU is likely to compromise . ..that is were the deal and the visa regime is so important.

2) US: Supertuesday

What ? GOP has 1081 delegates up for grab in often winner-gets-all elections. McKain or Romney is likely to reach the 1000 delegates needed to win the GOP nomination. Democrats, however, will compete for 2075 delegates, distributed proportionately for the most. Obama will show whether his high-profile endorsment have converted into votes. Clinton represent the democrat establishment, for Obama to still be competitive on Wednesday he needs a victory or a very close defeat in California (441 delegates/370 proportionate), a victory in Illinois (185/153), a decent show in New York (281/151). Democrats need 2025 delegates to win the nomination. Neither Hillary C. nor Barack O. are expected to reach the victory treshold.

When? Tuesday the 5th of February 2008, USA, 20 States.
Who? Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McKain, Mitt Romney.
What to watch out for? On the GOP side: Who is the nominee. Among the democrats: Has Barack survived, or even taken the lead over Hillary, which would be a turning point. Hillary's inevitability would have been fatally dented.
Geopolitical significance: McKain is a hard power grandpa, with a likeable smile and the wisdom of his age 71. Romney is somewhat of an unknown quantity geopolitically. Clinton: is a realpolitician from Washington's establishment and with some principles. Obama is a principled non-establishment actor, capable of realpolitik and with a powerful brain.

3) Kenya: on Watch, we might not have seen the worst of the crisis!
What ? The first round of the UN mediation seems to have ended with symbolic results: calls to the end of violence and an agreement to agree on the need for negotiations and aid relief for the displaced .
When? Week of 4^th of February 2008, Nairobi.
Who? Mr Kofi Annan, Mr Odinga, Mr. Kibaki
What to watch out for ? Two consecutive days without violence or deaths.
Geopolitical significance: Kenya used to be a showcase of African modernity, just after South Africa. The current crisis will test investors’ confidence in African markets. It will also test the ability of the African Union to sort out its own problems, something that has been put in doubt by manner in which they have handled the blatant crisis in Zimbabwe.

4) Poland: Tusk meets Putin. What will Putin have to say about the missile defence shield ?
What ? Tusk travels on a state visit to Russia.
When? Sunday the 10th of February 2008, Moscow.
Who? Donald Tusk (50) and Vladimir Putin (55).
What to watch out for? Will Putin bark at the West or instead strike conciliatory tone ? Will Russia receive Poland's endorsement for a strategic partnership with the EU ? Beef and gas will be on the table.
Geopolitical significance: Sikorski latest announcement that the US and Poland had struck a deal on the US missile defence shield. It could be the beginning of a long and steady deterioration of Russia-US relations. Or the end of a bluffing exercise , whereby Russia attempted to dissuade a US military move in Eastern Europe through aggresive rethoric , but without real intention to go any further than rethoric. The usual russian game.

5) Turkey: Erdogan meets Merkel
What ? Erdogan travels to Germany on a state visit.
When? Thursday the 7th of February 2008 (until the 9th), Germany.
Who? Tayipp Erdogan (53) and Angela Merkel (54).
What to watch out for? Any signs that the EU is ready to open new negotiations Chapters ! Any comments that Erdogan is about to stabilise the Kurdish problem in Turkey and Iraq. Announcements of an amnesty law for PKK fighters, would be a positive sign. Announcement of imminent talks with the KRG and moderate comments about the Kirkuk referendum would also be very positive. Announcements on the Nabucco pipeline or Cyprus could make a surprise.
Geopolitical significance: The EU and Turkey have entered an akward period of distant proximity. Nevertheless, pragmatism dictates rapprochement on issues such as : gas dependency on Russia, the Iranian nuclear file, Iraq, Lebanon, islam vs. modernity,....