The Global Week Ahead: 28.01.2008

1) Serbia-Balkans: What will the EU do to lure Serbian voters away from the nationalist presidential candidate ?
What ? The EU council of FM meets in Brussels, SAA and visa free travel for Serbia are on the agenda.
When? Monday, 28 January 2008, Brussels
Who? Council of FM, with particular attention to Belgium and the Netherlands.
What to watch out for ? SAA, visa free travel or both. How will Kostunica react ? Will it boost President Tadic election chances?
Geopolitical significance: The second tour of the Presidential elections takes place on Sunday. The incumbent, a pro Euro moderate, competes against Nikolic, a nationalist ex-Minister of Milosevic from the Radical party. Although ceremonial the presidency has some influence on the foreign affairs agenda, which will put the EU-negotiations on hold and therefore affect the economy.

2) Kenya: Kofi Annan’s last chance before the country slips into turmoil !
What ? Koffi Annan is engaged in a round of mediation between President Kibaki and opposition leader Odinga. Both men have claimed victory in the December 2007 Presidential elections. The elections were heavily rigged, Mr Kibaki was officially declared winner after long counting delays. Violence then erupted across the country.
When? Week of 28^th of January 2008, Nairobi.
Who? Mr Kofi Annan, Mr Odinga, Mr. Kibaki
What to watch out for ? A second handshake between Mr Kibaki and Odinga. The beginning of the negotiations for a constitutional amendment or the re-run of the elections (both are demands of the opposition).
Geopolitical significance: Kenya used to be a showcase of African modernity, just after South Africa. The current crisis will test investors’ confidence in African markets. It will also test the ability of the African Union to sort out its own problems, something that has been put in doubt by manner in which they have handled the blatant crisis in Zimbabwe.

3) US: State of the Union Speech ?
What ? In his final state of the Union Speech, President Bush will lay out the plan for 2008.
When? Monday the 28th of January 2008, Washington.
Who? George W. Bush.
What to watch out for? All references to Foreign Policy. In particular: Middle East Peace Process, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Pakistan.
Geopolitical significance: To a large extent Lebanon is an accurate barometer of the region. So far regional players, including the US, have managed a difficult status-quo cohabitation on all key-issues: Irak, Palestine, Iranian Nuclear program. As a result Lebanon has been able to maintain a status quo internally, although at the costs of the presidential elections. The latest violence is a signal that protagonists want to raise the stakes. Two risks stand out: that the muscle flexing runs out of control of the regional players, that regional players decide to raise the stakes even further ahead of the US elections.

4) Lebanon: Who is the next target ?
What ? The last two weeks have witnessed the explosion of one bomb per week. The targeting has reached a new paradigm with a US embassy car and an anti-terrorist expert. The perpetrators seem to be targeting the last bulwark of Lebanon’s stability: the security services and the international supporters.
When? Week of 28^th of January 2008, Beirut.
Who? Bashar El-Assad, Hosni Mubarak, General Sleiman, Ali Khomenei.
What to watch out for? Any new outbreak of violence.
Geopolitical significance: To a large extent Lebanon is an accurate barometer of the region. So far regional players, including the US, have managed a difficult status-quo cohabitation on all key-issues: Irak, Palestine, Iranian Nuclear program. As a result Lebanon has been able to maintain a status quo internally, although at the costs of the presidential elections. The latest violence is a signal that protagonists want to raise the stakes. Two risks stand out: 1) that regional players loose control of their Lebanese proxies, 2) that regional players decide to raise the stakes even further ahead of the US elections.