The Global Week Ahead: 17th of November 2008

1) Pakistan: Friends of Pakistan Summit
What ? A summit of countries allied to Pakistan is to be held in Abu Dhabi. The summit is expected to offer economic and political support.

When? Monday the 17^th of November 2008.

Who? Ali Zardari, China, US, EU, Germany, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Britain, France, Canada, Turkey, Australia.

What to watch out for? Significant and immediate economic aid to the tune of $10bn.

Geopolitical significance? Pakistan is a nuclear power, with a homegrown Islamic insurgency, and serious political instability. With its Foreign Reserves declining fast, it is quickly heading to a balance of payment crisis. A full-blown balance of payment crisis would lead to a technical bankruptcy, which would potentially turn Pakistan into a failed state in which Islamist are the only alternative.

2) France: Opposition elects leader

What ? The socialist party (PS) of France is to elect a new leader to replace Francois Hollande, who decided to resign after 11 years. The election follows a party Congress that was held in Reims on the 14^th-15^th-16^th of November 2008. The congress was marred by acrimonious rivalries and public spats between the tenors of the party. Four factions have emerged from the congress: Bertrand Delanoe, Benoit Hamon, Segolene Royal, Martine Aubry.

When? Thursday 20^th of November.
Who? It is expected that there will be three candidates running: Benoit Hamon (could retract in favour of Aubry), Ségolène Royal, Martine Aubry.
What to watch out for: in a three-way contest Ségolène Royal is likely to win, but if Hamon retracts in favour of Martine Aubry, a very tight run-off would be on the cards.

Geopolitical significance: The leadership election of the PS will be crucial for determining the socio-political pressure that the opposition will place on Nicolas Sarkozy. The only candidate representing the center is Ségolène Royal. All others support a more radical social agenda.

3) USA: Lame-duck Congress Session

What ? Nancy Pelosi, the house leader, called for a lame duck session for this week on the 11^th of November. Lame duck sessions of the U.S. Congress happen in even numbered years when Congress has to reconvene following the November general election to take care of unfinished legislation. Some lawmakers who return for this session lost their bids for reelection and will not be in the next Congress. Hence, they are informally called "lame duck" members participating in a "lame duck" session.

When? Week of the 17^th of November 2008.
Who? Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Tom Daschle, Harry Reid, and other congressional leader.
What to watch out for: a $25bn aid package for Ford and GM. Whether Obama will participate and come to the Hill.

Geopolitical significance: failure to pass legislation in support of Ford and GM, could lead to their bankruptcy by year-end, and trigger a global equity sell-off of considerable magnitude.

5) Iraq: Security Pact needs Parliament Approval

What ? The US and the Iraqi government have come to terms on a Security Pact that would allow US forces to stay beyond the 31^st of December 2008. The cabinet voted 27 against 13 in favour of the pact. Now, parliament needs to vote on it before it can be ratified by the President.

When? Week of the 17^th of November.
Who? Iraqi Parliament, Iran, Grand Ayathollah Ali Al-Sistani.
What to watch out for: a quick approval, and the position of Muqtada al-Sadr.

Geopolitical significance: This pact will seal the mid-term presence of US troops in Iraq, and serve as a guarantee for a modicum of political stability in Iraq for the next 12 months.

6) Syria: David Milliband visits Syria

What ? David Milliband, Foreign Minister of the UK, is set to pay an official visit to Syria. This is the first UK visit since the Iraq war but it comes after a similar visit by Sakozy. The visit confirms Syria’s return to the international community. A development which will be of serious concerns for Iran.

When? Tuesday the 20^th of November 2008.
Who? David Milliband, Hafez El-Assad.
What to watch out for: a renewed Syrian pledge for ambassador exchange with Lebanon, a disavowal of Hamas, some form of closer cooperation.

Geopolitical significance: Things rarely develop in a radical fashion in Damascus. And so is its rapprochement with the international community. David Milliband’s visit is a key step in confirming Syria’s engagement. Such an engagement would de facto weaken the Syrian-Iranian alliance. Moreover, this comes at a time when Iran is experiencing serious economic woes.

7) Iran: A window of opportunity has opened for Israel

What ? It has long been argued that a window of opportunity to strike Iran would open for Israel between the US elections and Inauguration day on the 20^th of January 2009. The argument is that Israel would benefit from the incumbent’s president support without having to convince the new occupant to the White House.

When? 4^th of November 2008 – 19^th of January 2009.
Who? Iran (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Khamenei) and Israel (Ehoud Olmert, Dagan)
What to watch out for: A military operation inside Iran’s territory.

Geopolitical significance: The geopolitical domino effects are potentially powerful and will have a regional impact from Lebanon to Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

The Global Week Ahead: 10th-17th of November 2008

1) USA: Barack Obama’s Cabinet
What ? Presidents-elect usually nominate key-cabinet appointment before they take office. With Rahm Emmanuel’s appointment only 2 days after the elections, Obama is signaling that his intent is to act swiftly and decisively.

When? Week of the 10^th of November 2008.

Who? Barack Obama.

What to watch out for? Appointments to watch for are: National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense (top candidate: Robert Gates), Secretary of State (top candidate: Bill Richardson), Secretary of the Treasury. Will McCain get a job as well in one of the intelligence agencies ?

Geopolitical significance? The appointments will set the tone in all policy matters, in particular economic and foreign policy.

2) Global Financial Crisis: G20 summit
What ? President Bush has called a G20 summit in Washington to discuss a global response to the financial crisis. The summit will include non-OECD countries such as China, Brazil, India, and Russia.

When? Sunday 14^th of November.
Who? Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The European Union is also a member, represented by the rotating Council presidency and the European Central Bank..
What to watch out for: Who will attend from Obama’s team ? Whether any concrete promises will be made.

Geopolitical significance: It is the first time that Emerging Market Countries are brought into the crisis room to discuss a solution. In a way, it signals a new era in the balance of power between the OECD-countries and the Emerging-countries.

3) Iran: A window of opportunity has opened for Israel

What ? It has long been argued that a window of opportunity to strike Iran would open for Israel between the US elections and Inauguration day on the 20^th of January 2009. The argument is that Israel would benefit from the incumbent’s president support without having to convince the new occupant to the White House.

When? 4^th of November 2008 – 19^th of January 2009.
Who? Iran (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Khamenei) and Israel (Ehoud Olmert, Dagan)
What to watch out for: A military operation inside Iran’s territory.

Geopolitical significance: The geopolitical domino effects are potentially powerful and will have a regional impact from Lebanon to Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

The Global Week Ahead: 10.03.2008

1) Hungary: The fall-out from the referendum could be turbulent
What ? Referendum on 3 aspects of the fiscal austerity plan of the government took place on 09.03. The referendum was forced onto the government by the opposition in a bid to oust the Prime Minisiter from office. The days until the national day, on the 15.03, and maybe beyond are likely to turn violent as the opposition celebrates its victory, and unleashes its radical elements on the streets of Budapest.
When? Monday, 10 March to Saturday 15 March 2008, Budapest.
Who? MSZP - Ferenc Gyurczanny (Socialist PM), Fidesz - Viktor Orban (right cum extreme-right opposition leader).
What to watch out for ? 1) turnout. if above 30% the likelihood of the referendum being binding will increase significantly, 2) Anything less than a binding referendum victory for the opposition on all three questions will be perceived as a defeat by Fidesz. 3) A defeat with more than 60% participation would be very damaging to the PM.4) Noise from the MSZP party following the results announcement. Although unlikely, an internal party coup on PM Gyurczanny remains a remote possibility.
Geopolitical significance: Not much geopolitically. But a very negative referendum for the government, coupled with protests on the street will send the HUF to hell. the currency could weaken dramatically this week.
Developing story, links: financial markets

2) Urkaine: EU-Ukraine troika, will the enhanced FTA fly?
What ? Ukraine's Prime Minister will be in Brussel to attend the regular EU-Ukraine Troika. This comes at time of relative political stability in Ukraine, and barely 2 months after Ukraine's WTO membership announcement.
When? Tuesday 11.03.2008.
Who? Yulia Timoshenko (PM of Ukraine), Manuel Barroso (EU commission), Slovenian Prime Minister, and French representative.
What to watch out for? 1) Any announcement on the enhanced FTA, 2) Hints of a timeline for the WTO ratification process, 3) EU and Ukrainian position on Rosukrenergo and the gas transit regime to the EU.
Geopolitical Significance: Political relations with Ukraine are always touchy because of Russia. But when the EU starts talking about "enhanced FTA", while Russia is still nowhere on its desire to sign a strategic partnership agreement with the EU could lead to frictions between Moscow and the EU, as well as between Moscow and Kiev.
Developing story, links: Kosovo recognition on behalf of Ukraine, NATO M.A.P.,

3) US: Mississippi Democratic Primaries!
What ? 33 Democratic delegates are at stake in the state of Mississippi. Barack Obama stands a strong chance to win in Mississipi, where ca 30% of the population is black. A strong victory in Mississipi would be essential for Obama psychological and arithmetic momentum. At present he leads in the delegate count by 123 delegates (Real Clear Politics), but has suffered defeats in Texas and Ohio, two big states, on the 04.03 .
When? Week of the 18.02.2008
Who? Students in Turkish Universities
What to watch out for? 1) Campus protests against or for the headscarf ban, 2) Any evidence that .
Geopolitical significance? none others that it could trigger a market sell-off as foreign investors have sofar resisted from scaring from Turkey amid gloomy global sentiments.
Developing story, links:

4) Serbia: Early elections are confirmed !
What ? On Saturday 08.03.2008 Prime Minister Kostunica (DSS), announced the dissolution of the government over its inability to agree on the parliamentary resolution of the Radical Party (SRS) on Kosovo. Early elections have been announced for the 11.05.2008.
When? Week of the 10.03.2008
Who? Boris Tadic (President, DS), Kostunica (DSS), Timoslav Nikolic (SRS).
What to watch out for? 1) Public Opinion Polls, 2) Political rallies that turn violent.
Geopolitical significance? Critical. Kostunica is likely to chart a pro-Russian path to his electorate. Tadic will propose a pro-EU path. The catastrophy scenario would be a victory of SRS.
Developing story, links: Kosovo, NATO accession of Macedonia and Albania.

5) Europe: Fourth anniversary of the Madrid bombing
What ? on 11.03.2004 a series of coordinated Al Qaeda bombs on Madrid's trains killed 191 people and left over 1500 people injured. Al Qaeda has a demonstrated tendency to perpetrate new attacks on anniversaries of older ones.
When? 11.03.2008
Who? Al Qaeda.
What to watch out for? 1) Any attack on US interests could influence the presidential election campaign, 2) an attack on Dutch interests in retaliation for Geert Wilders announced Fitna movie.
Geopolitical significance? It could disqualify Turkey's EU accession prospects for a while, it would excerbate intercultural tensions in many european cities, it could affect the US presidential elections.

5) Iran: Parliamentary elections
What ? Two groups are locked in a fierce political battle. On one hand are the conservatives supported by some reformists (Rafsanjani, Khatami). On the other hand are the radicals with strong links to the Revolutionary guards (Ahmadinejad). The elections comes against a background of rampant inflation, shortages, and heavy handed politics from the presidential party. A clean defeat of the presidential party has been precluded by the government's intervention in the opposition candidates vetting process.
When? 14.03.2008
Who? .
What to watch out for? 1) a defeat by the presidential party, 2) anti-Ahmadinejad comments from Khamenei 3) Massive demonstrations in Iran.
Geopolitical significance? It is a questions of signals to the West. Bearing in mind that the West is intently concerned about Iran's nuclear stance, as well as its increasingly belligerent rethoric. A victory of Ahmadinejad's party, without any condmenation or criticism from Khamenei would amount to implicit support of Ahmadinejad current policies. The West would then conclude that they stand on their own to stop a nuclear, anti-semite Iran with all the dire consequences that such reasoning would imply. If on the opposite, Ahmadinejad is dealt a relative defeat and Kahmenei distances himself from him, the signal would be that things are changing in Iran. The West would then conclude that time is on their side.
Developing story, links: Lebanon, Persian Gulf, Iraq, Israel

The Conference of the Year: Annapolis Conference

The conference is extraordinary in all aspects.

The attendee list is eye-popping, the absentee list is extraordinary short: Iran (and its part of Hamas). Moreover, the accross the board dismissal of its chance of success, a topic on which Mr Khamenei and the US media seem to strangely agree, has downplayed expectations in such a way that the absentees now seems to be shouldering all the downsides of the event (if the event succeeds they are left with nothing), while the attendees are left with the potential upsides (if the event fails well everybody had expected it). But the real significance of the conference is to be found in the implications of the attendees list. Let me flesh out the ones that are most obvious (feel free to add the ones that are missing).
1) Syria is making its first public steps outside its alliance with Iran. While Khamenei and Ahmadinejad sing in unison calling it a waste of time, Syria will be in Annapolis.
2) Saudi Arabia's FM presence within meters of the Israeli PM, for the purpose of discussing arab-israeli peace, blasts away all taboos about contacts with Israel. In that sense the meeting amounts to a historic ice-breaker, a game changer.
3) When media reports and pictures of the event hit the frontpages on the 28th, Iran will be left pondering whether it is not truly isolated. China is telling Iran to obey the UN, Russia tells them to forgive enrichment, the US-UK-FR are crystal clear about what they think of Iran's nuclear programme, Israel-Saudi Arabia and all major Sunni States find themselves weirdly aligned in their suspiscion of an Iran's nuclear ambition...surprise surprise all these sceptics will be at Annapolis.
4) As Bradley Burston writes, the secret weapon og the conference is the weakness of the protagonists. http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/928139.html
5) Bush has picked up a strategic objective for 2008 that will be the key vector of the Administration Middle Policy in 2008: Middle East Peace process. The republicans are gonna love him for revamping their image in this crucial electioneering year. And as all america watchers know well the republicans are less dependent on the Israeli lobby than the democrats.

Lebanon's Presidential Elections : explode-defuse, explode-defuse.... it is a 45/55 case

The Lebanese parliament has until the 23rd of November to elect a President, that is no more than 5 days. The term of the current president, Emile Lahoud, will end on the 24th, day on which he will hand-over power...but to who ?
The constitution stipulates that the president "shall be elected by secret ballot and by a two thirds majority of the Chamber of Deputies. After a first ballot, an absolute majority shall be sufficient. see constitution . In a manner reminiscent of the dynamics of the last Turkish presidential elections the Hizbollah-Aounist opposition interprets the constitution as requiring a 2/3 quorum for all sessions. The president is to be elected for a 6 years-term, and by customs has to be Maronite. One can dwell endlessly on the details, but suffice to state that the parliament (128 seats) is divided between a Sunni-Christian (ca 70) majority of and a Shiite-Christian (Hezbollah-Amal-Aounist) minority (ca 58).
The opposition's quorum claim has super-heated the debate for anything else than a consensus candidate (a candidate elected with a 2/3 quorum) would lead to the opposition to claim that since the majority had acted unconstitutionally, it was entitled to act as such and to elect its own president. yes, Lebanon might well have 2 presidents and two governments by the end of the week.

Behind the two blocs hide all major regional powers. The majority has the open support of France, the US, and Saudi Arabia, while the minority can count on Iran and Syria. One noteworthy absentee from this shortlist is Israel...the reason for that is that the US represents its case.

Two questions will need to be answered before a presidential nominee will be agreed on. Firstly, will the US agree to talk eye to eye with Syria and to accommodate their requests for a president acceptable to Syria ? Or will they instead beat the democracy drum and tell Syria, for a second time, that it is either "with them or against them"?
The second question is who is an acceptable candidate for the Syrians ?

On the first question, the US willingness to backtrack on its democratic rhetoric vis a vis a plainly undemocratic regime bent on using muscles and TNT to get things its way in Lebanon is a function of US and Israeli interests. The US republican administration needs to stabilise Iraq, and contain Iran's nuclear ambitions. In both case they will need the support of Saudi Arabia and also of Syria. The crux of the matter is that Saudis and Syrians aren't on speaking terms anymore. As to the Israeli, its interests lie in prolonging the current rock-bottom weakness of the Arab states in order to settle its borders and its issue with Palestinians under favourable terms. Translated into a Syria-policy, this means keep the Assad regime, enlist it into a Palestinian peace deal favourable to Israel in return for which the Syrians will get the Golan. The alternative for Assad is such a messy anti-Semitic/turbocharged fundamentalist perspective that Assad is honey to the Israeli. The only regime, they argue that can rein over Hezbollah and the fundamentalist forces of the Levant is the Assad dynasty. Regarding Iran, Israel has a very clear incentive to contain its ambitions as well.
To sum it all, the only hurdle to a US-Syrian entente is Saudi Arabia. The tensions between Saudi Arabia and Syria are essentially about the leadership of the Sunni world, and of the fight against the historic enemy Israel. Since Saudis also have an interest in bringing Syria back to the anti-Iranian league, they might well support an entente with Syria but at what price ? Presumably, Saudi could just be satisfied with a Syrian-acceptable president in Lebanon if the Prime Minister is a strong Sunni figure and if Syria supports an Annapolis peace deal at the end of November. To reach that the US will need to pressurize Israel to make the necessary concessions to the Palestinians, allow a pro-Syrian candidate to emerge in Lebanon, and squeeze Walid Jumblatt and Samir Geagea a bit.

As to the Syria-acceptable candidates. There are too many Maronite in Lebanon to present an exhaustive list. A better approach would be to proceed by elimination. As a principle Syria will want a president who guarantees that it keeps some form of control of Hezbollah, and that slows down the development of the Harriri tribunal. Nassib Lahoud is out of question for his strong affiliation with the Harriri camp. Michel Aoun, would be too risky for unpredictable and capable of cornering Hezbollah if he unifies the christians. Demenaos Katar, possible. Robert Ghanem, acceptable, due to his decent stance towards Syria and his Bekaa constituency which makes him an easy subject of Syrian intelligence services.

My hunch is that it will be either Katar or Ghanem. The next questions however, will be who will be Prime Minister.
Although tensions are likely to defuse in the short-term as the elections of a president pushes away the prospect of two governments in Lebanon, no solutions will offer magic answers regarding the electoral law that requires drafting before 2009, the Harriri tribunal, and Hezbollah's normalisation into Lebanon's polity.

Lebanon will be the last neighbour of Israel to stabilise. First the Palestinian will need their just deal. Then the Syrians will have to get their shore on the Lake of Galilea. And then only will it be possible to have realistic hopes that Lebanon will enjoy political stability, economic reform, and peace. Look at Annapolis Peace conference if you want an indicator of where the country's prospects stand.