The Global Week Ahead: 14.04-21.04.2008

1) Ireland Referendum: Merkel campaigns in Ireland
What ? Angela Merkel campaigns for the Referendum on the European reform treaty in Ireland. The poll is to be held on the 12.06.2008.
When? Monday, 14.04.2008, Dublin.
Who? Angela Merkel (German Chancellor), and Bertie Ahern will host her (although he is stepping down).
What to watch out for ? History, it is the first time a foreign leader is campaigning for a EU referendum of such symbolic importance, since the Maastricht Treaty.
Geopolitical significance: EU-focused

2) Italy 2 different dimensions: Berlusconi vs Veltroni, status quo vs stability!
What ? Parliamentary (630 seats, party lists+ proportional), Senate (315 seats, party-lists +proportional), and local elections.
When? Elections were on 13-14.04.2008, results due on 14.04.2008, 15:00.
Who? Mr Berlusconi: People Freedom Party, Mr. Veltroni: New Democrats
What to watch out for ? Any clear majority both in the Parliament as in the Senate. Anything short of that will be a harbinger of political instability and cast doom on Italy’s enormous economic problems. Why not a victory of Veltroni. The latter would be a sign the Italian voters are hungry for stability and respectability vs. show and poor track-record.
Geopolitical significance: EU eco stability, maturing of the “sick man of Europe”

3) Middle East Talks
What ? The Quartet meets in Amman, Jordan.
When? Thursday 17^th of April 2008, Amman.
Who? Level of meeting is not clear yet. Lookout of ministerial tours.
What to watch out for: Level of delegations, position towards Hamas.
Geopolitical significance: Important follow-up to Indianapolis.

4) Jimmy Carter meets Hamas leader in Damascus
What ? Ex President Jimmy Carter is expected to meet Khaled Meshaal in Damascus.
When? Friday 18^th of April 2008, Damascus.
Who? Jimmy Carter, Khaled Meshaal, Bashar El-Assad..
What to watch out for: Will the meeting go ahead ? What will be the US candidates’ position towards the visit ? Will foreign leaders use the visit as an ice-breaker opening the way to discussion with Hamas ?
Geopolitical significance: Important for the Middle East process..

5) Papal visit to the US
What ? Pope Benedict visits the US for the first time since he became Pope
When? Week of 14 ^th –21^st of April 2008, USA.
Who? Pope Benedict XVI, George Bush.
What to watch out for: The pope has turned increasingly open to inter-religious dialogue. King Abdullah visited him several months ago, and they both got on very well together. Saudi Arabia has since then signaled willingness to sponsor inter-religious dialogue and narrow the mentality gap. The pope is likely to speak about it when he meets Bush and the Jewish lobby. Benedict XVI might venture on a political comment towards Palestine.
Geopolitical significance: minor.

The Global Week Ahead: 10-16 Dec - A Lot of Microconflicts Developping

1) Argentina: Kristina Kirchner becomes President of Argentina !
What ? Kristina Kirchner, wife of the incumbent President, swears oath and becomes president.
When? Monday, 10 December 2007, Buenos Aires.
Who? Hugo Chavez, Francois Fillon, and a lot of Latin American leaders.
What to watch out for ? Check out who else is present at the ceremony in particular from the US, Colombia and Mexico. Then, pay attention to her speech, it is likely to be a tone-setting speech for domestic policy as well as foreign policy. How will she speak of her husband's policies ?
Geopolitical significance: Kristina Kirchner arrives at a time when the Argentine economy is showing signs of overheating. She needs to reform the energy sector, cut back on government expenditures, and tame the worker unions demands. Her Husband had no problems flirting with Hugo Chavez, she is expected to be different on foreign policy, let us see what she will say and how she will behave towards Venezuela and the US. Latin America socialist scare might get another punch if she distances herself from Morales and Chavez.

2) Kosovo: UN Troika submits its report to the UN secretary general
What ? UN troika contact group (Russia, US, EU) report to the UN secretary general on the results of their second round of negotiations with the Serbs and Kosovars regarding a solution to Kosovo's demand for independence. In theory this is just supposed to be a technocratic step, kicking-off an UNSC review process that should culminate with a decision on the mandate of the UNMIK somewhere around the 19.12.07 or in January '08. The UN is widely expected to hand over its mandate to the EU. Kosovo could then unilaterally declare independence.
When? Monday 10 December 2007, New York.
Who? Mr Wolfgang Ischinger (EU), Mr Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko (Russia) and Mr Frank Wisner (US)
What to watch out for ? As the event is technocratic it will be largely symbolic. Watch out for Russia's statement and try to discern any loosening of the RU's rejection of Kosovo's independence. Security slippages are very possible in Kosovo, as ethnic Albanians are litterally boiling for independence. Watch out for the words of the newly elected leader of Kosovo, Thaci. Will he appease his citizens's expectations for independence, will he make independence committments with a date, or will he give a vague committment ?
Geopolitical significance: the Kosovo could go on fire and unleash a very hugly war in Kosovo, Macedonia, and Bosnie.

3) Lebanon: The cedars' president - 7th attempt.
What ? Constitutional amendment, followed by Presidential election of General Suleiman (expected candidate).
When? Tuesday 11th December 2007, Beirut.
Who? General Michel Suleiman.
What to watch out for ? Any delays, or a terrorist attack. What becomes of Aoun ?
Geopolitical significance: An election will put an end to the constitutional vacuum in one of the Middle East's most volatile country. It will aslo signal the US and Syria have agreed on Lebanon.

4) US-Fed: time for a cut ?
What ? The US Fed holds its monthly monetary policy meeting. It could cut rates by 50 or 25 bps, or stay neutral.
When? Tuesday 11th December 2007, New York.
Who? Ben Bernanke.
What to watch out for ? The magnitude of rate cut.
Geopolitical significance: 50 bps will send the markets on a rally and the barrel of oil 1-4 notches higher. a 25bps could be seen as neutral by the markets.

5) Palestine: Olmert and Abbas Meet for First Time since Annapolis
What ? Peace negotiations between Mahmood Abbas and Ehud Olmert. First round since the Annapolis Peace Conference on the 27.11.07.
When? Wednesday, 12th December 2007, tbc.
Who? Mahmood Abbas, Ehud Olmert.
What to watch out for ? Delays ? What will Ehud Olmert say about the settlements ban and the military vehicle delivery to the Palestinian Police Force.
Geopolitical significance: As the first meeting since Annapolis the meeting is important in determining the resolve of the leaders to build on the good spirit of Annapolis.

6) US-China: Strategic Economic Dialogue
What ? Strategic Economic Dialogue between China and the US.
When? Tuesday, 11-12th December, 2007, Beijing.
Who? Secretary Paulson leads a delegation of US trade officials (Schwab and Guttierrez) to meet Chinese officials.
What to watch out for ? China's committment to correct the trade deficit (I have no hopes about the Yuang). The level of satisfaction about the results of the talks expressed by the US delegation.
Geopolitical significance: China is under enormous pressure to do something about the Yuang undervaluation and the humongous trade surplus it has with the US (ca. $ 240bn). failure to appease US resentment could lead to protectionist measures by the US congress.

7) EU: Signing Ceremony of the Lisbon Treaty
What ? Signing ceremony of the Lisbon Treaty (ex-constitutional treaty) .
When? Wednesday, 12th December, 2007, Lisbon.
Who? 27 EU Member States.
What to watch out for ? Foto-opportunity.
Geopolitical significance: the EU will have a single treaty, president and minister of foreign affairs. Voting procedures in the council will allow double majority votes (55% of council and 65% of EU inhabitants).

8) South-Africa: ANC leadership elections
What ? election fo leader of ANC.
When? Thursday 13th December, 2007, Johannesbourg.
Who? Thabo Mbeki, Jacob Zuma, Tokyo Sexwhale.
What to watch out for ? any last minute withdrawal of candidacy. Any court proceedings against Jacob Zuma.
Geopolitical significance: Leadership of the ANC is a red carpet towards the presidency of the country (elections in 2009). Mr Mbeki and Zuma have fallen out with each others and risk splitting the party if the competition is played out in the leadership votes. The ANC could suffer immensly from an internal feud. Jacob Zuma is a leftist populist politician, which is not a great omen for businesses.

9) EU: EU-summit
What ? EU heads of states and government summit.
When? Friday 14th December, 2007, Brussel.
Who? 27 EU member states.
What to watch out for ? EU committments to opening Chapters with Turkey, to the activities of the PKK. EU strategy for Kosovo.
Geopolitical significance: Harmony-projects power. Divisision in EU ranks projects weakness. Kosovo, Turkey.

10) Pakistan: Musharaf lifts emergency rule... or not?
What ? self-imposed deadline for the emergency rule.
When? Sunday 16th December, 2007, Islamabad.
Who? Perwez Musharaf.
What to watch out for ? Will he stick to his words, will there be any terrorist attacks. Watch out for Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Shariff.
Geopolitical significance: this is a preliminary steps for free elections on the 8th of January 2008.