The Global Week Ahead: 30.06-06.07.08

1) Turkey: The final phase of the AKP closure case
What ? The constitutional court will hear the oral arguments of the prosecutor, Yalcinkaya, and AKP, in the AKP closure case. This represents the last phase of the closure case before the court starts the deliberation process.
When? Oral arguments of the prosecutor general, Yalcinkaya, on 01.07.08. The arguments of AKP on 03.07.08.
Who? Abdurrahman Yalçınkaya (prsecutor accusing AKP) , AKP lawyers and Tayyip Erdogan, it is unlikely that Tayyip Erdogan appears in court but his statements in the run-up and aftermath are important.
What to watch out for? The oral plea is always important. It could determine the duration of the CC deliberation. If new arguments are presented, the parties will be given time to produce written proofs and counter-arguments. Alternatively, there could be a major clash with the justices, that could spill-over in the public domain under the form of a major public debate.
Geopolitical significance? Turkey’s economic convergence. The survival of a government and party that was critical in bringing Syria and Israel closer. The survival of one of the most credible Europhile government in decades.

2) Zimbabwe: Will uncle Bob be confronted
What ? Robert Mugabe was sworn in on the 29.06.08, after Friday’s presidential election run-off. The Elections have been described as not representing the will of the people by regional observers. The opposing candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, withdrew from the race after scores of killings, physical attacks, and forcible displacement struck his supporters. Zimbabwe is on the brink of complete economic (Hyperinflation, hunger, poverty, lowest life expectancy in the world) and political disaster (ruthless dictatorship). Mugabe is due to attend a conference of the African Union in Sharm el –sheikh (Egypt). Thabo Mbeki, president of South Africa has so far refrained from condemning Robert Mugabe. He is widely perceived as the only regional leader capable of coordinating an effective response to the Mugabe’s regime.
When? 01.07.08.
Who? Robert Mugabe, Thabo Mbeki.
What to watch out for: Robert Mugabe reception at the African Union summit. Will he be recognized as Zimbabwe’s leader ? What will be Thabo Mbeki’s official position vis-à-vis Zim.
Geopolitical significance: Africa is witnessing a remake of the dictatorships of the 70s in Zim. Bening complacency on behalf of African leaders would signal that democracy is not a sancrosanct concept for them. The implications for the political transition in South Africa would be, to say the least, worrying.
Interesting Comments on the topic:
Robert I. Rotberg: http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/27/opinion/edrotberg.php

3) EU: France takes the presidency
What ? France takes over the rotating 6-months presidency of the EU council.
When? 01.07.08.
Who? Nicolas Sarkozy, Manual Baroso.
What to watch out for: Sarkozy’s solution with respect to the EU constitutional treaty, and the Irish no to it. Sarkozy’s announcement on European defense. His speeches on the independence of the European Central Bank.
Geopolitical significance: Sarkozy is an energetic leader, in search of a political victory to shore up his domestic popularity. He was a key backer of the EU treaty, the agreement of which he abusively presented as a French achievement. He now has to deal with the Irish no, put some flesh on his EU defense plan, and substantiate his Mediterranean vision. Cela passera ou cela cassera !

4) Serbia: pro-EU government sworn in
What? Serbia is due to elect a pro-EU government.
When? Week of 1^st of July 2008.
Who? Mirko Cvetkovic (DS), prime minister nominee.
What to watch out for? The declaration of the government on the EU association agreement and Kosovo. Collaboration with the The Hague tribunal, and the arrest of Karadzic.
Geopolitical significance: The Association agreement is likely to be promptly ratified in parliament. EU convergence path will find a renewed impetus.

Linking the dots

· Wall street shares slide almost to March lows (FT, 28.06), http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3942168-4448-11dd-b151-0000779fd2ac.html

· 80% of Americans hold negative views about the economy (Gallup, 29.06), http://www.gallup.com/poll/107827/Gallup-Daily-Americans-Current-Views-Economy.aspx

· As of June 28, 52% of Americans report receiving an economic stimulus payment from the U.S. government. (Gallup, 29.06). http://www.gallup.com/poll/107212/Gallup-Daily-Tax-Rebate-Tracker.aspx

· More Americans think it is important to fix the economy than to fight terrorism (Gallup, 27.06.08). This is especially clear among democrats and independents, Republicans see the opposite. That might be why only 30% of Americans identify themselves with republicans. http://www.gallup.com/poll/108415/Americans-Prioritize-Economy-Over-Terrorism.aspx

Blog tip

A pearl of a blog on Syria and Lebanon. Joshua Landis blog, Syria Comment, screens all domestic and Syria-related regional developments, comments on them, and weblinks them to third-party commentators.

The Global Week Ahead: 28 April- 2 May 2008

1) EU-Russia Partnership: When the political mosquitoes league matters

What ? EU and Russia hold talks on a strategic partnership.
When? Tuesday 29^th of April 2008.
Who? Russia, EU Commission.
What to watch out for ? Lithuania has announced that they will veto any deals with Russia in protest to Russia’s bullying tactics against Lithuania and Georgia.
Geopolitical significance: As Medvedev is about to being sworn, liberal Russia needs a concession from the West that can silence the siloviki in the Kremlin.

2) Turkey: AKP submits written defense in closure case, or maybe not!

What? AKP has to submit its defence case to the constitutional court in written. It can, however, request a three month extension.
When? Friday 2^nd of May 2008.
Who? AKP, Tayip Erdogan.
What to watch out for? Will AKP submit an extension request, or send the signal that it is ready to face the court? The court will almost certainly accept a timeline extension request if a demand comes in.
Geopolitical significance: Turkey is hugely important for the Emerging Market sentiment in the financial world.

3) Olympic torch arrives in China
What? The Olympic torch has finally arrived in China. Chinese authorities can now be relieved, they control everything. On the other side media scrutiny is set to increase, and the flame is approaching Tibet.
When? Sunday 4^th of April 2008.
Who? Chinese government.
What to watch out for ? Any signs of disturbances in Tibet.
Geopolitical significance: Human rights hick-ups could lead to China bashing, which would in turn lead reactionary nationalism in Chin, which could then harm global trade.

4) Middle East: week before the storm
What ? Next week Israel will celebrate its 60^th Birthday. For most arab countries this will be a painful day. For the likes of Hezbollah, Iran, Al Qaeda, and Hamas, it will be unbearable to look at Israel celebrate.
When? All the days leading to the 14^th of May 2008
Who? Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, Hamas, Al Qaeda.
What to watch out for: Big headline attacks that could lead to a Middle East war.
Geopolitical significance: Oil prices would go through the roof. Lebanon could disintegrate into civil war. The Assad regime could be wiped away. Iran could be attacked.

5) Russia: the first President that is not from the Communist Party, nor from the security services is sworn in
What ? Medvedev is sworn in.
When? Wednesday 7^th of May 2008.
Who? Dimitri Medvedev, Putin
What to watch out for: When presidents change in Russia they usually like to take their country to war to establish their nationalist credentials. Yeltsin did it after his re-election. Putin did it after his elections. And what will Medvedev do. A war could easily be started in Georgia.
On the other hand, Medvedev represents fresh liberal blood. The tone in foreign affairs could change dramatically…for the best.
Geopolitical significance: EU gas supplies, Caucasus stability, Turkey’s stability.

The Global Week Ahead: 18.02.2008

1) Pakistan: Can the elections be free and fair?
What ? 80 mln. Pakistanis will elect 342 parliamentarian to the national assembly.
When? Monday, 18 February 2008, Pakistan.
Who? PPP (Asif Zadari), PML-Q (Nawaz Sharif), PML-M (Musharraf).
What to watch out for ? 1) any signs of elections rigging, 2) the results of the PPP in Punjab and Sindh, 3) PML-M capacity to remain in power.
Geopolitical significance: Both the PPP and the PML-Q have announced that they would impeach Musharraf once in control of the national assembly. Stability in the nuclear-armed state will depend on whether the electorate perceives the elections as rigged, and on the personality and program of the next Prime Minister (i.e. majority leader).
Any serious mass protests or assassination campaign could trigger a chain reaction that would fuel ethnic violence along tribal and religious lines throughout Pakistan. At this stage only the army could restore order.
Developing story, links:

2) Kosovo: What will happen to Mitrovica, and to Serbia's EU convergence process?
What ? Kosovo has declared independence. The Serbian enclave of Mitrovica has now a one-off opportunity to accept its faith, fight, or break away from Kosovo. In Belgrade politicians will find themselves in the uncomfortable situation of having to posture proudly in defence of Serbia without rupturing vital relations with the EU.
When? Week of the 18.02.2008
Who? Boris Tadic, Kostunica, Serbs of Kosovo
What to watch out for? 1) Ethnic violence in Kosovo, 2) Street protests in Belgrade, 3) Any inflammatory speeches from Serbian Nationalists.
Geopolitical significance? Kosovo's declaration of Independence comes two weeks after a narrow electoral run-off in serbia's presidential elections, which has effectively squeezed out the party of the somewhat Eurosceptic Prime Minister. While the President and the Prime Minister are now showing a united front against Kosovo's independence, divisions are likely to emerge once Serbians will have come to term with the reality, and a policy vision will be required.
Russia's role as Serbia's main ally is fraught with negative consequences for countries such as Georgia and Transdniestria.
If ethnic violence erupts on the ground in Kosovo the odds of a domino effect across the region will increase significantly. Hungarians in the Vojvodina, Serbs in Respublika Serbska, are likely to be the first to fall victims from any Kosovo violence. The last thing anybody wants are images of fleeing serbs.
The recognition game will also produce interesting geopolitics. Who will be first to recognise Albania ? Will Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan be among the first ones ?
Developing story, links:

3) Turkey: Turkish University reopen for the second semester...without headscarfs!
What ? The Turkish Parliament has passed a constitutional amendment allowing students to wear a headscarf at University. The amendment will become law once President Gul has signed it.
When? Week of the 18.02.2008
Who? Students in Turkish Universities
What to watch out for? 1) Campus protests against or for the headscarf ban, 2) Any evidence that .
Geopolitical significance? none others that it could trigger a market sell-off as foreign investors have sofar resisted from scaring from Turkey amid gloomy global sentiments.
Developing story, links:

4) Lebanon: On the brink of civil war !
What ? politically tainted street fights have been on the increase over the last 10 days, while senior politicians fail to react and reign over their rank and files the risks are high that the situation could slip out of control. The main underlying issue has been the inability of the Lebanese parliament to elect a new president. The Presidency having been kept vacant for three months.
When? Week of the 18.02.2008
Who? clashing mobs of Shiite and Sunni youth.
What to watch out for? 1) increase in mobs fight, 2) fiery speeches of political elders.
Geopolitical significance? A serious Sunni-Shiite clash would have dangerous repercussions across the region. Especially in Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Developing story, links:

5) Cyprus: reunification is in the bag !
What ? The first round of the presidential elections has edged-out the incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos. Mr Papadopoulos is infamous for his political u-turn vis a vis the Annan Plan's for the island's reunification. The alternative candidates, Mr Kasoulides and Mr Christofias (Communist) have both campaigned on a platform that was favourable to reunification. The second round of the Presidential elections will take place on Sunday.
When? 24.02.2008
Who? Mr kasoulides, Christofias, Erdogan.
What to watch out for? 1) Any campaign pledge with regards to independence, 2) Turkish reactions to the defeat of the jurassic president of Greek Cyprus.
Geopolitical significance? serious progress on the island reunification front would bolster Turkey's accession progress, allow Turkey to recognise Cypriot boats entering Turkish ports and therefore unblock the Chapter's negotiations. Furthermore, Cyprus' reunification would once and for all break the back of the Turkish army extralegal power channels, whose reliance on the informal Island's economy and mafia is notorious. In Cyprus there is one Turkish soldier for every fourth Turkish Cypriot inhabitant.

The Global Week Ahead: 04.02.2008

1) Serbia-Balkans: Tadic, Presivent = Kosovo Independent on the 7th of February ?
What ? At the time of writing Boris Tadic (DS) seemed to have narrowly won the presidential elections with 50,9 %. Will Nikolic stick to his words and respect the democratic results as he seemed to do when he conceded defeat? What will Kostunica's official statement be (he refused to endorse Tadic although he is in coalition with him) ? With 50% of Serbia split on Kosovo what will the EU now do ? Will they sign the promised deal on the 4th of February ? Will Kosovo declare its independence on the 7th as was rumored by European diplomats last week? And how will the serbian markets react to Tadic's narrow victory ?
When? Monday, 04 February 2008, Belgrade: Official results and EU deal. 07 February: Kosovo.
Who? Boris Tadic, Kostunica, Temislav Nikolic.
What to watch out for ? Any contest of the election results? Kostunica's comment on Tadic' victory ? Serbian market reaction ? The EU signature of the Serbian trade and visa deal ? Kosovo's declaration of independence?
Geopolitical significance: The EU's candidate, won the Serbian presidential elections though with a very narrow margin. The country is split in two on the main issue: A europhile serbia with a moderate president on Kosovo, or a staunchly nationalist serbia with a rethorically aggressive president on Kosovo! The EU is in fact in a difficult position: its main ally is publicly arguing against Kosovo's independence and demanding for a UN solution (which is unobtainable). An aggressive EU move in favor of Kosovo's independence would be a slap in the face of their ally. Prolonged procrastinations would however irritate the Kosovars to dangerous levels. Their choice will be stability vs. fidelity! The EU is likely to compromise . ..that is were the deal and the visa regime is so important.

2) US: Supertuesday

What ? GOP has 1081 delegates up for grab in often winner-gets-all elections. McKain or Romney is likely to reach the 1000 delegates needed to win the GOP nomination. Democrats, however, will compete for 2075 delegates, distributed proportionately for the most. Obama will show whether his high-profile endorsment have converted into votes. Clinton represent the democrat establishment, for Obama to still be competitive on Wednesday he needs a victory or a very close defeat in California (441 delegates/370 proportionate), a victory in Illinois (185/153), a decent show in New York (281/151). Democrats need 2025 delegates to win the nomination. Neither Hillary C. nor Barack O. are expected to reach the victory treshold.

When? Tuesday the 5th of February 2008, USA, 20 States.
Who? Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McKain, Mitt Romney.
What to watch out for? On the GOP side: Who is the nominee. Among the democrats: Has Barack survived, or even taken the lead over Hillary, which would be a turning point. Hillary's inevitability would have been fatally dented.
Geopolitical significance: McKain is a hard power grandpa, with a likeable smile and the wisdom of his age 71. Romney is somewhat of an unknown quantity geopolitically. Clinton: is a realpolitician from Washington's establishment and with some principles. Obama is a principled non-establishment actor, capable of realpolitik and with a powerful brain.

3) Kenya: on Watch, we might not have seen the worst of the crisis!
What ? The first round of the UN mediation seems to have ended with symbolic results: calls to the end of violence and an agreement to agree on the need for negotiations and aid relief for the displaced .
When? Week of 4^th of February 2008, Nairobi.
Who? Mr Kofi Annan, Mr Odinga, Mr. Kibaki
What to watch out for ? Two consecutive days without violence or deaths.
Geopolitical significance: Kenya used to be a showcase of African modernity, just after South Africa. The current crisis will test investors’ confidence in African markets. It will also test the ability of the African Union to sort out its own problems, something that has been put in doubt by manner in which they have handled the blatant crisis in Zimbabwe.

4) Poland: Tusk meets Putin. What will Putin have to say about the missile defence shield ?
What ? Tusk travels on a state visit to Russia.
When? Sunday the 10th of February 2008, Moscow.
Who? Donald Tusk (50) and Vladimir Putin (55).
What to watch out for? Will Putin bark at the West or instead strike conciliatory tone ? Will Russia receive Poland's endorsement for a strategic partnership with the EU ? Beef and gas will be on the table.
Geopolitical significance: Sikorski latest announcement that the US and Poland had struck a deal on the US missile defence shield. It could be the beginning of a long and steady deterioration of Russia-US relations. Or the end of a bluffing exercise , whereby Russia attempted to dissuade a US military move in Eastern Europe through aggresive rethoric , but without real intention to go any further than rethoric. The usual russian game.

5) Turkey: Erdogan meets Merkel
What ? Erdogan travels to Germany on a state visit.
When? Thursday the 7th of February 2008 (until the 9th), Germany.
Who? Tayipp Erdogan (53) and Angela Merkel (54).
What to watch out for? Any signs that the EU is ready to open new negotiations Chapters ! Any comments that Erdogan is about to stabilise the Kurdish problem in Turkey and Iraq. Announcements of an amnesty law for PKK fighters, would be a positive sign. Announcement of imminent talks with the KRG and moderate comments about the Kirkuk referendum would also be very positive. Announcements on the Nabucco pipeline or Cyprus could make a surprise.
Geopolitical significance: The EU and Turkey have entered an akward period of distant proximity. Nevertheless, pragmatism dictates rapprochement on issues such as : gas dependency on Russia, the Iranian nuclear file, Iraq, Lebanon, islam vs. modernity,....

The Global Week Ahead: 10-16 Dec - A Lot of Microconflicts Developping

1) Argentina: Kristina Kirchner becomes President of Argentina !
What ? Kristina Kirchner, wife of the incumbent President, swears oath and becomes president.
When? Monday, 10 December 2007, Buenos Aires.
Who? Hugo Chavez, Francois Fillon, and a lot of Latin American leaders.
What to watch out for ? Check out who else is present at the ceremony in particular from the US, Colombia and Mexico. Then, pay attention to her speech, it is likely to be a tone-setting speech for domestic policy as well as foreign policy. How will she speak of her husband's policies ?
Geopolitical significance: Kristina Kirchner arrives at a time when the Argentine economy is showing signs of overheating. She needs to reform the energy sector, cut back on government expenditures, and tame the worker unions demands. Her Husband had no problems flirting with Hugo Chavez, she is expected to be different on foreign policy, let us see what she will say and how she will behave towards Venezuela and the US. Latin America socialist scare might get another punch if she distances herself from Morales and Chavez.

2) Kosovo: UN Troika submits its report to the UN secretary general
What ? UN troika contact group (Russia, US, EU) report to the UN secretary general on the results of their second round of negotiations with the Serbs and Kosovars regarding a solution to Kosovo's demand for independence. In theory this is just supposed to be a technocratic step, kicking-off an UNSC review process that should culminate with a decision on the mandate of the UNMIK somewhere around the 19.12.07 or in January '08. The UN is widely expected to hand over its mandate to the EU. Kosovo could then unilaterally declare independence.
When? Monday 10 December 2007, New York.
Who? Mr Wolfgang Ischinger (EU), Mr Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko (Russia) and Mr Frank Wisner (US)
What to watch out for ? As the event is technocratic it will be largely symbolic. Watch out for Russia's statement and try to discern any loosening of the RU's rejection of Kosovo's independence. Security slippages are very possible in Kosovo, as ethnic Albanians are litterally boiling for independence. Watch out for the words of the newly elected leader of Kosovo, Thaci. Will he appease his citizens's expectations for independence, will he make independence committments with a date, or will he give a vague committment ?
Geopolitical significance: the Kosovo could go on fire and unleash a very hugly war in Kosovo, Macedonia, and Bosnie.

3) Lebanon: The cedars' president - 7th attempt.
What ? Constitutional amendment, followed by Presidential election of General Suleiman (expected candidate).
When? Tuesday 11th December 2007, Beirut.
Who? General Michel Suleiman.
What to watch out for ? Any delays, or a terrorist attack. What becomes of Aoun ?
Geopolitical significance: An election will put an end to the constitutional vacuum in one of the Middle East's most volatile country. It will aslo signal the US and Syria have agreed on Lebanon.

4) US-Fed: time for a cut ?
What ? The US Fed holds its monthly monetary policy meeting. It could cut rates by 50 or 25 bps, or stay neutral.
When? Tuesday 11th December 2007, New York.
Who? Ben Bernanke.
What to watch out for ? The magnitude of rate cut.
Geopolitical significance: 50 bps will send the markets on a rally and the barrel of oil 1-4 notches higher. a 25bps could be seen as neutral by the markets.

5) Palestine: Olmert and Abbas Meet for First Time since Annapolis
What ? Peace negotiations between Mahmood Abbas and Ehud Olmert. First round since the Annapolis Peace Conference on the 27.11.07.
When? Wednesday, 12th December 2007, tbc.
Who? Mahmood Abbas, Ehud Olmert.
What to watch out for ? Delays ? What will Ehud Olmert say about the settlements ban and the military vehicle delivery to the Palestinian Police Force.
Geopolitical significance: As the first meeting since Annapolis the meeting is important in determining the resolve of the leaders to build on the good spirit of Annapolis.

6) US-China: Strategic Economic Dialogue
What ? Strategic Economic Dialogue between China and the US.
When? Tuesday, 11-12th December, 2007, Beijing.
Who? Secretary Paulson leads a delegation of US trade officials (Schwab and Guttierrez) to meet Chinese officials.
What to watch out for ? China's committment to correct the trade deficit (I have no hopes about the Yuang). The level of satisfaction about the results of the talks expressed by the US delegation.
Geopolitical significance: China is under enormous pressure to do something about the Yuang undervaluation and the humongous trade surplus it has with the US (ca. $ 240bn). failure to appease US resentment could lead to protectionist measures by the US congress.

7) EU: Signing Ceremony of the Lisbon Treaty
What ? Signing ceremony of the Lisbon Treaty (ex-constitutional treaty) .
When? Wednesday, 12th December, 2007, Lisbon.
Who? 27 EU Member States.
What to watch out for ? Foto-opportunity.
Geopolitical significance: the EU will have a single treaty, president and minister of foreign affairs. Voting procedures in the council will allow double majority votes (55% of council and 65% of EU inhabitants).

8) South-Africa: ANC leadership elections
What ? election fo leader of ANC.
When? Thursday 13th December, 2007, Johannesbourg.
Who? Thabo Mbeki, Jacob Zuma, Tokyo Sexwhale.
What to watch out for ? any last minute withdrawal of candidacy. Any court proceedings against Jacob Zuma.
Geopolitical significance: Leadership of the ANC is a red carpet towards the presidency of the country (elections in 2009). Mr Mbeki and Zuma have fallen out with each others and risk splitting the party if the competition is played out in the leadership votes. The ANC could suffer immensly from an internal feud. Jacob Zuma is a leftist populist politician, which is not a great omen for businesses.

9) EU: EU-summit
What ? EU heads of states and government summit.
When? Friday 14th December, 2007, Brussel.
Who? 27 EU member states.
What to watch out for ? EU committments to opening Chapters with Turkey, to the activities of the PKK. EU strategy for Kosovo.
Geopolitical significance: Harmony-projects power. Divisision in EU ranks projects weakness. Kosovo, Turkey.

10) Pakistan: Musharaf lifts emergency rule... or not?
What ? self-imposed deadline for the emergency rule.
When? Sunday 16th December, 2007, Islamabad.
Who? Perwez Musharaf.
What to watch out for ? Will he stick to his words, will there be any terrorist attacks. Watch out for Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Shariff.
Geopolitical significance: this is a preliminary steps for free elections on the 8th of January 2008.

Turkey: Why Turkey Stands a Good Chance to Enter the EU, IF it Communicates Properly

We keep being told that Turkey, this Muslim country of 72 Mln inhabitants, cannot possibly be a Member of the EU, let alone a Member State in its own right. As all the specialists very well know there are two broad sets of criteria for defining whether applicant countries have a right of entry into the EU, the so-called Copenhagen criteria.
On one hand the country must achieve "stability of institutions guaranteeing" democracy, human rights, rule of law, rights of minorities. The applicant must also have a functioning market economy and have integrated the so-called acquis. Those are the Copenhagen criteria as known by the entire world, and everybody knows that for Turkey to fulfill them is a matter of a few years (2-3). Turkey has got a long-standing relationship with the EU, a custom Union, and a constitutional structure that is copy pasted from France. Adopting the acquis is a technical issue, that could go very fast once was it not for the hidden Copenhagen criteria.
An often forgotten dimension of the criteria is the EU's absorption capacity, which is referred to in the next paragraph of the official treaty document(Chapter 7.a, iii). The crux of the matter is : who decides what the "absorption capacity" of the EU is. Well, the lack of clear sub-criteria on this and the domestic political games played by EU politicians has handed the "absorption capacity" criteria over to their public opinions.

I therefore did my homework and researched the available data on Turkish and EU public opinion. The result is that the public opinions are compatible.
The data speak for themselves. European and Turkish opinion share identical values (see bullet points 1 and 2) , and these are Peace, environment, social equality, and freedom of expression. The order is slightly different in each case, but the absolute % of respondents is not greatly dissimilar. The icing on the cake, however , is that all the talk about cultural differences has no place in the European mind (see bullet point 1, p.5). Europeans associate culture with arts, etc..., but not with religion. So away with all the talk about Turkey being Muslim and therefore incompatible with EU-membership.

The backbone of my reasoning is rooted in three different opinion polls published by Eurobarometer. The closeness and compatibility of Turkish and EU public opinions is startling.
1) On the cultural definition of the EU , check p. 5, for the Values of the EU see p. 77: European Cultural Values, Sep. '07.
2) Turkish public opinion analysis, on p.17 :
Eurobarometer on Turkey, 2007
3) Complementary, and revealing, data on "the concerns" of the Europeans, check p. 43 and 52: European Social Reality, Feb. 2007

What is the conclusion of this surprising insight... ?
Firstly, it seems once again that the Turks (who should be on the active side when it comes to convincing the EU public opinion) are doing a very poor job at communicating their similarities. Secondly, the Turkish politicians should start understanding the EU's position on Cyprus, PKK, Northern-Iraq, and the Armenian genocide in the light of the EU's values as ranked by the EU public opinion; nr.1 was Peace, and a few positions behind ... is freedom of expression. If Turks demonstrate exemplary behaviour on these

Turkey: The country has retreated from the Headlines but good hopes can still be nurtured

On Monday, Abdullah Gul gave an interview to the French newspaper le Figaro in which he demonstrates all the skills needed to be a successful Turkish president. He is non-partisan, diplomatic, thoroughly logic, clearly on top of his subjects, and moderate.