The Global Week Ahead: 30.06-06.07.08

1) Turkey: The final phase of the AKP closure case
What ? The constitutional court will hear the oral arguments of the prosecutor, Yalcinkaya, and AKP, in the AKP closure case. This represents the last phase of the closure case before the court starts the deliberation process.
When? Oral arguments of the prosecutor general, Yalcinkaya, on 01.07.08. The arguments of AKP on 03.07.08.
Who? Abdurrahman Yalçınkaya (prsecutor accusing AKP) , AKP lawyers and Tayyip Erdogan, it is unlikely that Tayyip Erdogan appears in court but his statements in the run-up and aftermath are important.
What to watch out for? The oral plea is always important. It could determine the duration of the CC deliberation. If new arguments are presented, the parties will be given time to produce written proofs and counter-arguments. Alternatively, there could be a major clash with the justices, that could spill-over in the public domain under the form of a major public debate.
Geopolitical significance? Turkey’s economic convergence. The survival of a government and party that was critical in bringing Syria and Israel closer. The survival of one of the most credible Europhile government in decades.

2) Zimbabwe: Will uncle Bob be confronted
What ? Robert Mugabe was sworn in on the 29.06.08, after Friday’s presidential election run-off. The Elections have been described as not representing the will of the people by regional observers. The opposing candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, withdrew from the race after scores of killings, physical attacks, and forcible displacement struck his supporters. Zimbabwe is on the brink of complete economic (Hyperinflation, hunger, poverty, lowest life expectancy in the world) and political disaster (ruthless dictatorship). Mugabe is due to attend a conference of the African Union in Sharm el –sheikh (Egypt). Thabo Mbeki, president of South Africa has so far refrained from condemning Robert Mugabe. He is widely perceived as the only regional leader capable of coordinating an effective response to the Mugabe’s regime.
When? 01.07.08.
Who? Robert Mugabe, Thabo Mbeki.
What to watch out for: Robert Mugabe reception at the African Union summit. Will he be recognized as Zimbabwe’s leader ? What will be Thabo Mbeki’s official position vis-à-vis Zim.
Geopolitical significance: Africa is witnessing a remake of the dictatorships of the 70s in Zim. Bening complacency on behalf of African leaders would signal that democracy is not a sancrosanct concept for them. The implications for the political transition in South Africa would be, to say the least, worrying.
Interesting Comments on the topic:
Robert I. Rotberg: http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/27/opinion/edrotberg.php

3) EU: France takes the presidency
What ? France takes over the rotating 6-months presidency of the EU council.
When? 01.07.08.
Who? Nicolas Sarkozy, Manual Baroso.
What to watch out for: Sarkozy’s solution with respect to the EU constitutional treaty, and the Irish no to it. Sarkozy’s announcement on European defense. His speeches on the independence of the European Central Bank.
Geopolitical significance: Sarkozy is an energetic leader, in search of a political victory to shore up his domestic popularity. He was a key backer of the EU treaty, the agreement of which he abusively presented as a French achievement. He now has to deal with the Irish no, put some flesh on his EU defense plan, and substantiate his Mediterranean vision. Cela passera ou cela cassera !

4) Serbia: pro-EU government sworn in
What? Serbia is due to elect a pro-EU government.
When? Week of 1^st of July 2008.
Who? Mirko Cvetkovic (DS), prime minister nominee.
What to watch out for? The declaration of the government on the EU association agreement and Kosovo. Collaboration with the The Hague tribunal, and the arrest of Karadzic.
Geopolitical significance: The Association agreement is likely to be promptly ratified in parliament. EU convergence path will find a renewed impetus.

Linking the dots

· Wall street shares slide almost to March lows (FT, 28.06), http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3942168-4448-11dd-b151-0000779fd2ac.html

· 80% of Americans hold negative views about the economy (Gallup, 29.06), http://www.gallup.com/poll/107827/Gallup-Daily-Americans-Current-Views-Economy.aspx

· As of June 28, 52% of Americans report receiving an economic stimulus payment from the U.S. government. (Gallup, 29.06). http://www.gallup.com/poll/107212/Gallup-Daily-Tax-Rebate-Tracker.aspx

· More Americans think it is important to fix the economy than to fight terrorism (Gallup, 27.06.08). This is especially clear among democrats and independents, Republicans see the opposite. That might be why only 30% of Americans identify themselves with republicans. http://www.gallup.com/poll/108415/Americans-Prioritize-Economy-Over-Terrorism.aspx

Blog tip

A pearl of a blog on Syria and Lebanon. Joshua Landis blog, Syria Comment, screens all domestic and Syria-related regional developments, comments on them, and weblinks them to third-party commentators.

The Global Week Ahead: 05.05.2008 - 12.05.2008

1) China-Japan: President Hu Jintao visists Japan
What ? Chinese state visits to Japan have always had a historic character. Notwithstanding the differences in size of the countries, it can be compared to German-French state visits. It is about two fierce enemies seeing eye to eye again. It is Hu Jintao’s first foreign visit since the start of Tibetan protests.
When? Tuesday 6^th of May 2008.
Who? Hu Jintao meets Yassuo Fukuda.
What to watch out for ? North Korea will be on the Agenda, Tibetan monks demonstration, comments on the territorial over the East China Sea gas field.
Geopolitical significance? Beijing wants to stabilize its foreign policy ahead of the Olympic games. Japan has different priorities, however, including North Korea, protection and expansion of its business interests in China, and a permanent seat at the UN.

2) Russia: Twin-headed state
What ? Medvedev is sworn in. He is the first Russian Head of State since the Soviet Union’s collapse that is not from the Communist Party, nor from the security services is sworn in
When? Wednesday 7^th of May 2008.
Who? Dimitri Medvedev, Vladimir Putin.
What to watch out for: When presidents change in Russia they usually like to take their country to war to establish their nationalist credentials. Yeltsin did it before and after his re-election. Putin did it after his elections. What about Medvedev? A war could easily be started in Georgia.
On the other hand, Medvedev represents fresh liberal blood. The tone in foreign affairs could change dramatically…for the best.
Geopolitical significance: EU gas supplies, Caucasus stability, Turkey’s stability.

3) Israel 60^th Anniversary
What ? Israel will celebrate its 60^th Birthday. For most Arab countries this will be a painful day. For the likes of Hezbollah, Iran, Al Qaeda, and Hamas, it will be unbearable to look at Israel celebrate its existence. By the same token, it will be very tempting to strike the Jewish state.
When? Hebrew Calendar, 8th of May 2008, Roman Calendar 14^th of May 2008
Who? Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, Hamas, Al Qaeda.
What to watch out for: Big headline attacks that could lead to a Middle East war, the presence or the absence of the strategic allies during the celebrations. President G.W. Bush has announced himself, but a last minute cancellation is not excluded.
Geopolitical significance: Oil prices would go through the roof. Lebanon could disintegrate into civil war. The Assad regime could be wiped away. Iran could be attacked.

4) Serbia at a crossroad
What? Serbia holds parliamentary and local elections.
When? Sunday the 11th of May 2008.
Who? DSS (Kostunica), DS (Tadic, president), Nikolic (Radicals)
What to watch out for? Any signals from the Commission on Slovakia joining the Eurozone.
Geopolitical significance: Slovakia is now first in line to join the Euro. The country has met all the eurozone criteria. A decision to delay Slovakia’s entry would therefore be entirely political and thus damaging for the efforts of other newly joined member states. A spat on slovakia would deepen the New vs Old Europe divide.

5) Eurozone: l’auto-critique
What? The EC will present an overview of the eurozone as it approaches its tenth anniversary. The report coincides with the commission’s public assessment of the euro candidates..
When? Week of the 5th of May 2008.
Who? European Commission, Belgian Prosecutor general.
What to watch out for? Any signs that Slovakia will join the Eurozone.
Geopolitical significance: Slovakia is now first in line to join the Euro. The country has met all the eurozone criteria. A decision to delay Slovakia’s entry would therefore be entirely political and thus damaging for the efforts of other newly joined member states.

The Global Week Ahead: 10.03.2008

1) Hungary: The fall-out from the referendum could be turbulent
What ? Referendum on 3 aspects of the fiscal austerity plan of the government took place on 09.03. The referendum was forced onto the government by the opposition in a bid to oust the Prime Minisiter from office. The days until the national day, on the 15.03, and maybe beyond are likely to turn violent as the opposition celebrates its victory, and unleashes its radical elements on the streets of Budapest.
When? Monday, 10 March to Saturday 15 March 2008, Budapest.
Who? MSZP - Ferenc Gyurczanny (Socialist PM), Fidesz - Viktor Orban (right cum extreme-right opposition leader).
What to watch out for ? 1) turnout. if above 30% the likelihood of the referendum being binding will increase significantly, 2) Anything less than a binding referendum victory for the opposition on all three questions will be perceived as a defeat by Fidesz. 3) A defeat with more than 60% participation would be very damaging to the PM.4) Noise from the MSZP party following the results announcement. Although unlikely, an internal party coup on PM Gyurczanny remains a remote possibility.
Geopolitical significance: Not much geopolitically. But a very negative referendum for the government, coupled with protests on the street will send the HUF to hell. the currency could weaken dramatically this week.
Developing story, links: financial markets

2) Urkaine: EU-Ukraine troika, will the enhanced FTA fly?
What ? Ukraine's Prime Minister will be in Brussel to attend the regular EU-Ukraine Troika. This comes at time of relative political stability in Ukraine, and barely 2 months after Ukraine's WTO membership announcement.
When? Tuesday 11.03.2008.
Who? Yulia Timoshenko (PM of Ukraine), Manuel Barroso (EU commission), Slovenian Prime Minister, and French representative.
What to watch out for? 1) Any announcement on the enhanced FTA, 2) Hints of a timeline for the WTO ratification process, 3) EU and Ukrainian position on Rosukrenergo and the gas transit regime to the EU.
Geopolitical Significance: Political relations with Ukraine are always touchy because of Russia. But when the EU starts talking about "enhanced FTA", while Russia is still nowhere on its desire to sign a strategic partnership agreement with the EU could lead to frictions between Moscow and the EU, as well as between Moscow and Kiev.
Developing story, links: Kosovo recognition on behalf of Ukraine, NATO M.A.P.,

3) US: Mississippi Democratic Primaries!
What ? 33 Democratic delegates are at stake in the state of Mississippi. Barack Obama stands a strong chance to win in Mississipi, where ca 30% of the population is black. A strong victory in Mississipi would be essential for Obama psychological and arithmetic momentum. At present he leads in the delegate count by 123 delegates (Real Clear Politics), but has suffered defeats in Texas and Ohio, two big states, on the 04.03 .
When? Week of the 18.02.2008
Who? Students in Turkish Universities
What to watch out for? 1) Campus protests against or for the headscarf ban, 2) Any evidence that .
Geopolitical significance? none others that it could trigger a market sell-off as foreign investors have sofar resisted from scaring from Turkey amid gloomy global sentiments.
Developing story, links:

4) Serbia: Early elections are confirmed !
What ? On Saturday 08.03.2008 Prime Minister Kostunica (DSS), announced the dissolution of the government over its inability to agree on the parliamentary resolution of the Radical Party (SRS) on Kosovo. Early elections have been announced for the 11.05.2008.
When? Week of the 10.03.2008
Who? Boris Tadic (President, DS), Kostunica (DSS), Timoslav Nikolic (SRS).
What to watch out for? 1) Public Opinion Polls, 2) Political rallies that turn violent.
Geopolitical significance? Critical. Kostunica is likely to chart a pro-Russian path to his electorate. Tadic will propose a pro-EU path. The catastrophy scenario would be a victory of SRS.
Developing story, links: Kosovo, NATO accession of Macedonia and Albania.

5) Europe: Fourth anniversary of the Madrid bombing
What ? on 11.03.2004 a series of coordinated Al Qaeda bombs on Madrid's trains killed 191 people and left over 1500 people injured. Al Qaeda has a demonstrated tendency to perpetrate new attacks on anniversaries of older ones.
When? 11.03.2008
Who? Al Qaeda.
What to watch out for? 1) Any attack on US interests could influence the presidential election campaign, 2) an attack on Dutch interests in retaliation for Geert Wilders announced Fitna movie.
Geopolitical significance? It could disqualify Turkey's EU accession prospects for a while, it would excerbate intercultural tensions in many european cities, it could affect the US presidential elections.

5) Iran: Parliamentary elections
What ? Two groups are locked in a fierce political battle. On one hand are the conservatives supported by some reformists (Rafsanjani, Khatami). On the other hand are the radicals with strong links to the Revolutionary guards (Ahmadinejad). The elections comes against a background of rampant inflation, shortages, and heavy handed politics from the presidential party. A clean defeat of the presidential party has been precluded by the government's intervention in the opposition candidates vetting process.
When? 14.03.2008
Who? .
What to watch out for? 1) a defeat by the presidential party, 2) anti-Ahmadinejad comments from Khamenei 3) Massive demonstrations in Iran.
Geopolitical significance? It is a questions of signals to the West. Bearing in mind that the West is intently concerned about Iran's nuclear stance, as well as its increasingly belligerent rethoric. A victory of Ahmadinejad's party, without any condmenation or criticism from Khamenei would amount to implicit support of Ahmadinejad current policies. The West would then conclude that they stand on their own to stop a nuclear, anti-semite Iran with all the dire consequences that such reasoning would imply. If on the opposite, Ahmadinejad is dealt a relative defeat and Kahmenei distances himself from him, the signal would be that things are changing in Iran. The West would then conclude that time is on their side.
Developing story, links: Lebanon, Persian Gulf, Iraq, Israel

The Global Week Ahead: 04.02.2008

1) Serbia-Balkans: Tadic, Presivent = Kosovo Independent on the 7th of February ?
What ? At the time of writing Boris Tadic (DS) seemed to have narrowly won the presidential elections with 50,9 %. Will Nikolic stick to his words and respect the democratic results as he seemed to do when he conceded defeat? What will Kostunica's official statement be (he refused to endorse Tadic although he is in coalition with him) ? With 50% of Serbia split on Kosovo what will the EU now do ? Will they sign the promised deal on the 4th of February ? Will Kosovo declare its independence on the 7th as was rumored by European diplomats last week? And how will the serbian markets react to Tadic's narrow victory ?
When? Monday, 04 February 2008, Belgrade: Official results and EU deal. 07 February: Kosovo.
Who? Boris Tadic, Kostunica, Temislav Nikolic.
What to watch out for ? Any contest of the election results? Kostunica's comment on Tadic' victory ? Serbian market reaction ? The EU signature of the Serbian trade and visa deal ? Kosovo's declaration of independence?
Geopolitical significance: The EU's candidate, won the Serbian presidential elections though with a very narrow margin. The country is split in two on the main issue: A europhile serbia with a moderate president on Kosovo, or a staunchly nationalist serbia with a rethorically aggressive president on Kosovo! The EU is in fact in a difficult position: its main ally is publicly arguing against Kosovo's independence and demanding for a UN solution (which is unobtainable). An aggressive EU move in favor of Kosovo's independence would be a slap in the face of their ally. Prolonged procrastinations would however irritate the Kosovars to dangerous levels. Their choice will be stability vs. fidelity! The EU is likely to compromise . ..that is were the deal and the visa regime is so important.

2) US: Supertuesday

What ? GOP has 1081 delegates up for grab in often winner-gets-all elections. McKain or Romney is likely to reach the 1000 delegates needed to win the GOP nomination. Democrats, however, will compete for 2075 delegates, distributed proportionately for the most. Obama will show whether his high-profile endorsment have converted into votes. Clinton represent the democrat establishment, for Obama to still be competitive on Wednesday he needs a victory or a very close defeat in California (441 delegates/370 proportionate), a victory in Illinois (185/153), a decent show in New York (281/151). Democrats need 2025 delegates to win the nomination. Neither Hillary C. nor Barack O. are expected to reach the victory treshold.

When? Tuesday the 5th of February 2008, USA, 20 States.
Who? Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McKain, Mitt Romney.
What to watch out for? On the GOP side: Who is the nominee. Among the democrats: Has Barack survived, or even taken the lead over Hillary, which would be a turning point. Hillary's inevitability would have been fatally dented.
Geopolitical significance: McKain is a hard power grandpa, with a likeable smile and the wisdom of his age 71. Romney is somewhat of an unknown quantity geopolitically. Clinton: is a realpolitician from Washington's establishment and with some principles. Obama is a principled non-establishment actor, capable of realpolitik and with a powerful brain.

3) Kenya: on Watch, we might not have seen the worst of the crisis!
What ? The first round of the UN mediation seems to have ended with symbolic results: calls to the end of violence and an agreement to agree on the need for negotiations and aid relief for the displaced .
When? Week of 4^th of February 2008, Nairobi.
Who? Mr Kofi Annan, Mr Odinga, Mr. Kibaki
What to watch out for ? Two consecutive days without violence or deaths.
Geopolitical significance: Kenya used to be a showcase of African modernity, just after South Africa. The current crisis will test investors’ confidence in African markets. It will also test the ability of the African Union to sort out its own problems, something that has been put in doubt by manner in which they have handled the blatant crisis in Zimbabwe.

4) Poland: Tusk meets Putin. What will Putin have to say about the missile defence shield ?
What ? Tusk travels on a state visit to Russia.
When? Sunday the 10th of February 2008, Moscow.
Who? Donald Tusk (50) and Vladimir Putin (55).
What to watch out for? Will Putin bark at the West or instead strike conciliatory tone ? Will Russia receive Poland's endorsement for a strategic partnership with the EU ? Beef and gas will be on the table.
Geopolitical significance: Sikorski latest announcement that the US and Poland had struck a deal on the US missile defence shield. It could be the beginning of a long and steady deterioration of Russia-US relations. Or the end of a bluffing exercise , whereby Russia attempted to dissuade a US military move in Eastern Europe through aggresive rethoric , but without real intention to go any further than rethoric. The usual russian game.

5) Turkey: Erdogan meets Merkel
What ? Erdogan travels to Germany on a state visit.
When? Thursday the 7th of February 2008 (until the 9th), Germany.
Who? Tayipp Erdogan (53) and Angela Merkel (54).
What to watch out for? Any signs that the EU is ready to open new negotiations Chapters ! Any comments that Erdogan is about to stabilise the Kurdish problem in Turkey and Iraq. Announcements of an amnesty law for PKK fighters, would be a positive sign. Announcement of imminent talks with the KRG and moderate comments about the Kirkuk referendum would also be very positive. Announcements on the Nabucco pipeline or Cyprus could make a surprise.
Geopolitical significance: The EU and Turkey have entered an akward period of distant proximity. Nevertheless, pragmatism dictates rapprochement on issues such as : gas dependency on Russia, the Iranian nuclear file, Iraq, Lebanon, islam vs. modernity,....

The Global Week Ahead: 28.01.2008

1) Serbia-Balkans: What will the EU do to lure Serbian voters away from the nationalist presidential candidate ?
What ? The EU council of FM meets in Brussels, SAA and visa free travel for Serbia are on the agenda.
When? Monday, 28 January 2008, Brussels
Who? Council of FM, with particular attention to Belgium and the Netherlands.
What to watch out for ? SAA, visa free travel or both. How will Kostunica react ? Will it boost President Tadic election chances?
Geopolitical significance: The second tour of the Presidential elections takes place on Sunday. The incumbent, a pro Euro moderate, competes against Nikolic, a nationalist ex-Minister of Milosevic from the Radical party. Although ceremonial the presidency has some influence on the foreign affairs agenda, which will put the EU-negotiations on hold and therefore affect the economy.

2) Kenya: Kofi Annan’s last chance before the country slips into turmoil !
What ? Koffi Annan is engaged in a round of mediation between President Kibaki and opposition leader Odinga. Both men have claimed victory in the December 2007 Presidential elections. The elections were heavily rigged, Mr Kibaki was officially declared winner after long counting delays. Violence then erupted across the country.
When? Week of 28^th of January 2008, Nairobi.
Who? Mr Kofi Annan, Mr Odinga, Mr. Kibaki
What to watch out for ? A second handshake between Mr Kibaki and Odinga. The beginning of the negotiations for a constitutional amendment or the re-run of the elections (both are demands of the opposition).
Geopolitical significance: Kenya used to be a showcase of African modernity, just after South Africa. The current crisis will test investors’ confidence in African markets. It will also test the ability of the African Union to sort out its own problems, something that has been put in doubt by manner in which they have handled the blatant crisis in Zimbabwe.

3) US: State of the Union Speech ?
What ? In his final state of the Union Speech, President Bush will lay out the plan for 2008.
When? Monday the 28th of January 2008, Washington.
Who? George W. Bush.
What to watch out for? All references to Foreign Policy. In particular: Middle East Peace Process, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Pakistan.
Geopolitical significance: To a large extent Lebanon is an accurate barometer of the region. So far regional players, including the US, have managed a difficult status-quo cohabitation on all key-issues: Irak, Palestine, Iranian Nuclear program. As a result Lebanon has been able to maintain a status quo internally, although at the costs of the presidential elections. The latest violence is a signal that protagonists want to raise the stakes. Two risks stand out: that the muscle flexing runs out of control of the regional players, that regional players decide to raise the stakes even further ahead of the US elections.

4) Lebanon: Who is the next target ?
What ? The last two weeks have witnessed the explosion of one bomb per week. The targeting has reached a new paradigm with a US embassy car and an anti-terrorist expert. The perpetrators seem to be targeting the last bulwark of Lebanon’s stability: the security services and the international supporters.
When? Week of 28^th of January 2008, Beirut.
Who? Bashar El-Assad, Hosni Mubarak, General Sleiman, Ali Khomenei.
What to watch out for? Any new outbreak of violence.
Geopolitical significance: To a large extent Lebanon is an accurate barometer of the region. So far regional players, including the US, have managed a difficult status-quo cohabitation on all key-issues: Irak, Palestine, Iranian Nuclear program. As a result Lebanon has been able to maintain a status quo internally, although at the costs of the presidential elections. The latest violence is a signal that protagonists want to raise the stakes. Two risks stand out: 1) that regional players loose control of their Lebanese proxies, 2) that regional players decide to raise the stakes even further ahead of the US elections.