The Global Week Ahead: 05.05.2008 - 12.05.2008

1) China-Japan: President Hu Jintao visists Japan
What ? Chinese state visits to Japan have always had a historic character. Notwithstanding the differences in size of the countries, it can be compared to German-French state visits. It is about two fierce enemies seeing eye to eye again. It is Hu Jintao’s first foreign visit since the start of Tibetan protests.
When? Tuesday 6^th of May 2008.
Who? Hu Jintao meets Yassuo Fukuda.
What to watch out for ? North Korea will be on the Agenda, Tibetan monks demonstration, comments on the territorial over the East China Sea gas field.
Geopolitical significance? Beijing wants to stabilize its foreign policy ahead of the Olympic games. Japan has different priorities, however, including North Korea, protection and expansion of its business interests in China, and a permanent seat at the UN.

2) Russia: Twin-headed state
What ? Medvedev is sworn in. He is the first Russian Head of State since the Soviet Union’s collapse that is not from the Communist Party, nor from the security services is sworn in
When? Wednesday 7^th of May 2008.
Who? Dimitri Medvedev, Vladimir Putin.
What to watch out for: When presidents change in Russia they usually like to take their country to war to establish their nationalist credentials. Yeltsin did it before and after his re-election. Putin did it after his elections. What about Medvedev? A war could easily be started in Georgia.
On the other hand, Medvedev represents fresh liberal blood. The tone in foreign affairs could change dramatically…for the best.
Geopolitical significance: EU gas supplies, Caucasus stability, Turkey’s stability.

3) Israel 60^th Anniversary
What ? Israel will celebrate its 60^th Birthday. For most Arab countries this will be a painful day. For the likes of Hezbollah, Iran, Al Qaeda, and Hamas, it will be unbearable to look at Israel celebrate its existence. By the same token, it will be very tempting to strike the Jewish state.
When? Hebrew Calendar, 8th of May 2008, Roman Calendar 14^th of May 2008
Who? Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, Hamas, Al Qaeda.
What to watch out for: Big headline attacks that could lead to a Middle East war, the presence or the absence of the strategic allies during the celebrations. President G.W. Bush has announced himself, but a last minute cancellation is not excluded.
Geopolitical significance: Oil prices would go through the roof. Lebanon could disintegrate into civil war. The Assad regime could be wiped away. Iran could be attacked.

4) Serbia at a crossroad
What? Serbia holds parliamentary and local elections.
When? Sunday the 11th of May 2008.
Who? DSS (Kostunica), DS (Tadic, president), Nikolic (Radicals)
What to watch out for? Any signals from the Commission on Slovakia joining the Eurozone.
Geopolitical significance: Slovakia is now first in line to join the Euro. The country has met all the eurozone criteria. A decision to delay Slovakia’s entry would therefore be entirely political and thus damaging for the efforts of other newly joined member states. A spat on slovakia would deepen the New vs Old Europe divide.

5) Eurozone: l’auto-critique
What? The EC will present an overview of the eurozone as it approaches its tenth anniversary. The report coincides with the commission’s public assessment of the euro candidates..
When? Week of the 5th of May 2008.
Who? European Commission, Belgian Prosecutor general.
What to watch out for? Any signs that Slovakia will join the Eurozone.
Geopolitical significance: Slovakia is now first in line to join the Euro. The country has met all the eurozone criteria. A decision to delay Slovakia’s entry would therefore be entirely political and thus damaging for the efforts of other newly joined member states.

The Global Week Ahead: 28 April- 2 May 2008

1) EU-Russia Partnership: When the political mosquitoes league matters

What ? EU and Russia hold talks on a strategic partnership.
When? Tuesday 29^th of April 2008.
Who? Russia, EU Commission.
What to watch out for ? Lithuania has announced that they will veto any deals with Russia in protest to Russia’s bullying tactics against Lithuania and Georgia.
Geopolitical significance: As Medvedev is about to being sworn, liberal Russia needs a concession from the West that can silence the siloviki in the Kremlin.

2) Turkey: AKP submits written defense in closure case, or maybe not!

What? AKP has to submit its defence case to the constitutional court in written. It can, however, request a three month extension.
When? Friday 2^nd of May 2008.
Who? AKP, Tayip Erdogan.
What to watch out for? Will AKP submit an extension request, or send the signal that it is ready to face the court? The court will almost certainly accept a timeline extension request if a demand comes in.
Geopolitical significance: Turkey is hugely important for the Emerging Market sentiment in the financial world.

3) Olympic torch arrives in China
What? The Olympic torch has finally arrived in China. Chinese authorities can now be relieved, they control everything. On the other side media scrutiny is set to increase, and the flame is approaching Tibet.
When? Sunday 4^th of April 2008.
Who? Chinese government.
What to watch out for ? Any signs of disturbances in Tibet.
Geopolitical significance: Human rights hick-ups could lead to China bashing, which would in turn lead reactionary nationalism in Chin, which could then harm global trade.

4) Middle East: week before the storm
What ? Next week Israel will celebrate its 60^th Birthday. For most arab countries this will be a painful day. For the likes of Hezbollah, Iran, Al Qaeda, and Hamas, it will be unbearable to look at Israel celebrate.
When? All the days leading to the 14^th of May 2008
Who? Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, Hamas, Al Qaeda.
What to watch out for: Big headline attacks that could lead to a Middle East war.
Geopolitical significance: Oil prices would go through the roof. Lebanon could disintegrate into civil war. The Assad regime could be wiped away. Iran could be attacked.

5) Russia: the first President that is not from the Communist Party, nor from the security services is sworn in
What ? Medvedev is sworn in.
When? Wednesday 7^th of May 2008.
Who? Dimitri Medvedev, Putin
What to watch out for: When presidents change in Russia they usually like to take their country to war to establish their nationalist credentials. Yeltsin did it after his re-election. Putin did it after his elections. And what will Medvedev do. A war could easily be started in Georgia.
On the other hand, Medvedev represents fresh liberal blood. The tone in foreign affairs could change dramatically…for the best.
Geopolitical significance: EU gas supplies, Caucasus stability, Turkey’s stability.

The Global Week Ahead - 26 Nov-02 Dec: What you have to watch out for

1) Annapolis Peace Conference (www)
What ? United States will host a conference at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland. It is intended to be the "launching point for negotiations leading to the establishment of a Palestinian state and the realization of Israeli-Palestinian peace".
When? Tuesday, 27 November 2007.
Who? George Bush, Condoleeza Rice, Prime Minister Olmert, Palestinian Authority President Abbas, along with the Members of the Quartet, the Members of the Arab League Follow-on Committee, the G-8, the permanent members of the UN Security Council, and other key international actors including Syria (deputy FM) and Saudi Arabia (FM), but NOT Iran.
What to watch out for ? A recognition of UN 242; Israeli commitment to stop settlement expansion and start dismantling illegal colonies; a firm timeline; Engagement of Syria; any signs of Syrian-Israeli meeting; the role of Russia in the peace process, any sideline agreement between Russia and US on Kosovo, conventional arms treaty, and Missile defense shield. Geopolitical significance: Middle East peace process, departure of Syria from the Syrian-Iranian axis, Lebanese presidential elections, implicit recognition of Israel by Arab League.

2) EU-China Summit & France China-Summit (www)
What ? annual EU-China Summit, by nature focused on trade and economic ties. This year it will be preceded by a visit of the Eurozone monetary policy makers.
When? Monday 26 (France-China), Tuesday 27 (Eurozone Policy-makers) and Wednesday (EU-China Summit) 28 November 2007, Beijing.
Who? Monday: Sarkozy, Hu Jiantao. Tuesday: Jean-Claude Trichet, Jean-Claude Juncker, Joaquín Almunia. Wednesday: Barroso, Joaquín Almunia, Peter Mandelson, Wen Jibao
What to watch out for ? Hu Jintao's comments on Iran, Lebanon and Kosovo. Who exactly is representing the Chinese side ? Any CB officials, Minister of Economy, Finance ? Scrutinize the closing remarks for a Chinese promise on currency re-evaluation; any signs of tensions (no progress).
Geopolitical significance: the beginning of a serious trade row between China and the EU-US.

3) Lebanon: The cedars' president.
What ? Presidential election, in Parliament has been postponed beyond constitutional limit, despite enormous diplomatic efforts to have it done on time.
When? Friday 30th November 2007.
Who? Possible candidates include: Michel Aoun, Michel Edde, Robert Ghanem, Damianos Kattar, Nassib Lahoud, Boutros Harb.
What to watch out for ? Is it actually taking place on time? US-Syrian understanding in Annapolis, Iran's position.
Geopolitical significance: A successful presidential election will signal that Syria and the US have converging views in the Middle East, confirmation of the Syrian rupture from the Iran-Syria axis.

4) Pakistan: the first week of the internal trio
What ? For the first time in 10 years the three political juggernauts and archrivals of the 1990s are inside Pakistan at the same time.
Who? Nawaz Sharif, Benazir Bhutto, Perwez Musharraf.
What to watch out for ? Assassination attempts against any of the three, Terrorist attacks, political rallies, Release of Iftikar Chaudry, Resignation of Musharraf as General, end of Emergency rule.
Geopolitical significance: extreme domestic instability in a nuclear armed country, preventive strike potential from India and USA.

5) Russia parliamentary elections: democracy for dummies
What ? Duma elections.
When? Sunday 2nd December 2007.
Who? 450 seats contested by: Liberal Democratic Party, United Russia, Other Russia (opposition coalition); Communist party.
What to watch out for ? Any surprising results from the opposition and the communists, Putin's hints at his role in United Russia.
Geopolitical significance: Parliamentary election in G8 country, strong suspicion sub-standard election could spark serious international outcry, putin's stronghold over the country will determine his indirectly proportional to his intransigence on Kosovo, Conventional Arms treaty, and the missile defense shield, Georgia, Ukraine.

6) Kosovo: last hopeless sprint
What ? final negotiating round of Troika (EU-Russia-US) with Serbs and Kosovars.
When? Monday- Wednesday 26-28 November 2007, Vienna.
Who? Diplomat level, maybe some foreign ministers on Wednesday.
What to watch out for ? Any signs that Kosovo could prematurely decide to declare independence, Any sign that they would do so by the 10.12.2007 even if the EU advises against. Geopolitical significance: Bosnia, Serbia, EU-Russia relations, Macedonia.

7) Venezuela: the day of Truth for Chavez
What? National referendum to remove terms limit on serving president.
When? Sunday 2 December, 2007.
Who ? Chavistas vs anti-Chavistas and Students.
What to watch out for ? Army coup if Chavez wins, former General and Defense Minister warned that the referendum amounted to a coup, large demonstrations in the week to come, watch out for army comments.
Geopolitical significance ? a serious blow/consolidation for the socialist/bolivarian revolution in South America at a time when Argentina is turning more pragmatic and Cuba is about to loose Castro.